Pondering probability of prospects breaking camp

New Yankees catcher Brian McCann is a career .417/.475/.528 hitter in 10 games against the Orioles. He's 5-for-9 with two RBIs and two walks at Camden Yards.

Be sure to give him a warm welcome next season.

McCann batted only .231 with three home runs against left-handers last season, but he's 2-for-3 with a double and home run against Brian Matusz. Small sample size.

McCann also is 2-for-3 with a home run and two walks against right-hander Bud Norris, in case you were wondering.

McCann is 0-for-1 against new Orioles reliever Edgmer Escalona.

Checkmate!

By doing the "Wall to Wall Baseball" show on Saturday mornings, I'm able to take fan questions e-mailed and tweeted to us and use them as blog entries. Just don't wait for the check to arrive in the mail.

A fan wanted us to predict which top Orioles prospect is most likely to break camp with the team next spring. We'd need a true definition of "prospect."

In other words, does outfielder Henry Urrutia still qualify after appearing in 24 games this year?

If so, Urrutia gets the nod, but not as the starting left fielder. He's more likely to make the team as a left-handed designated hitter.

That said, executive vice president Dan Duquette told me recently that he's hoping to add a left-handed designated hitter, so ... Urrutia isn't guaranteed a spot.

Many of the Orioles' highly rated prospects are too far away from the majors to make the opening day roster. Mike Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez pitched at Double-A Bowie. Pitcher Tim Berry and catcher Michael Ohlman aspire to join the Baysox next year.

Are we counting Dylan Bundy? If so, he probably won't be ready to pitch until the second half of the season after undergoing ligament-reconstructive surgery on his right elbow.

Are we counting Kevin Gausman? He appeared in 20 games this year, so again, I need a definition of "prospect." Anyway, I say he's more likely to open the 2014 season in Triple-A Norfolk's rotation.

I also say Jonathan Schoop is more likely to open the 2014 season as Norfolk's second baseman, but I can understand why some fans would choose him.

We're counting Hunter Harvey and there's absolutely no way he makes that jump.

Jason Gurka, Branden Kline, Dariel Alvarez, Chance Sisco, Zachary Davis, Josh Hart, Christian Walker, Parker Bridwell, Glynn Davis, Adrian Marin, Ofelky Peralta. You see where I'm going with this.

Not a chance.

Urrutia is the most likely, but he's got to earn it.

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