Sometimes we overreact to early season statistics and trends

What have we learned through the Orioles’ first five games?

Well, the rotation could struggle this year with an ERA of 5.74 through one turn. Chris Davis may not be reliable at first base. After all, he made an error last night, but he may drive in over 500 runs. Adam Jones may have a shot to hit .400. Heck, he’s batting .522 already. And the Orioles will be terrible in one-run games this year. They are 0-2 already.

Yes, I write this to make a point. Why do we overreact to what happens in the season’s first few games every year?

Does anyone remember that the club lost its first two extra-inning games last season, then went 16-0? Guess we would not have planned on that record after two games.

I guess it’s because it is all we have to react to right now - a handful of games - but nothing that has happened so far tells us, for instance, that Jake Arrieta will have a 6.20 ERA again or that Davis will be a 2013 MVP candidate.

This doesn’t mean we can’t begin to form some opinions from what we see, but people that have been around the game a long time often caution to read too much into stats produced in spring training, April and September.

We do see good signs from an offense that has been relentless at times, scoring 34 runs through five games. The 3-4-5 hitters are batting .500 (31-for-62) so far with nine doubles, five homers, 20 runs and 26 RBIs. No, that won’t hold up all year I bet.

On the other hand, it’s baseball and we always analyze stats. It’s no problem basing our opinions on what we’ve seen so far, but I just say enjoy the ride for a while right now and don’t read too much into anything.

The bottom line is the record and the Orioles are in fine shape there one day before starting an important trip to Boston and New York.

Today’s AL East Standings:
3-2: Baltimore, Boston, Tampa Bay
2-3: Toronto
1-4: New York

By the way, two notes from the minors last night. Jair Jurrjens pitched six innings of shutout, one-hit ball in Norfolk’s 2-0, 11-inning loss to Durham. The only hit he gave up was a fourth-inning single by top prospect Wil Myers that glanced off the glove of a diving Jonathan Schoop.

In Salisbury, Mychal Givens picked up his first professional win as Delmarva beat Hagerstown in Game 2 of a doubleheader. Givens pitched two scoreless innings, walking the first batter he faced before retiring six straight.

Kudos to the Camden Yards crowd of 40,704 Saturday night. It was spirited to the final pitch and it was a great crowd. The second game last season drew 31,532. Is this an indicator of how the attendance may go this year? Or would that just make me guilty of doing just what I cautioned against doing at the start of this blog?

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