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Here is the final part of my series of interviews with Jim Callis of Baseball America.
Today he discusses the O's drafts under Joe Jordan and the dollars the Orioles have spent on the draft. He gives Jordan solid marks for his drafts.
"They've been good. I know some Baltimore fans, at least from the emails I get, are a little impatient, saying Matt Wieters isn't all he was cracked up to be and Brian Matusz is struggling. But those were two very good picks. They were guys that didn't sign for slot money, yet the Orioles pulled the trigger on them.
"Hobgood last year was a little bit of a money saver. They spent money elsewhere in the draft but they went with a slot-guy at the top. He may have been more of a money pick, but I know the Orioles publicly have said that is not the case.
"I think Joe has done a good job. The farm system is better than it's been and they've gotten more young players to the big leagues the last few years than they have in a while. I think their player development and scouting departments are as effective as they have been in a long time."
Callis said the O's spent $8.7 million on draft picks last year. He said in the future they should spend even more than that on the draft.
"The average team spends a little over six (million). That can be distorted due to what you spend on your first pick. They have been more aggressive than most teams recently.
"They spent a lot on Cameron Coffey, Michael Ohlman and Mychal Givens, so they didn't go cheap (last year).
"But to me the easiest way to build a team is through the draft. Quite frankly, if the Yankees want a Major League free agent, they will get him. If the Red Sox want him, they are probably going to get him. The Orioles can't spend like those teams and the Sabathias and Teixieras won't come there until the team starts winning.
"The only way to compete is in the draft. If the Orioles were my team, I'd spend even more in the draft and have the commissioner's office screaming at me. They are more aggressive than most teams, but if you are spending eight, why not spend ten or twelve (million). Not every guy you get will hit, but the rate of return on the investment is high.
"They have not been cheap, but to me, if I had a bad team in the AL East, I'd be as aggressive as possible in the draft, I'd spend 10 or 15 million a year. The way the system is set up, if you are willing to spend, the system winds up driving the players who are not going to sign for slot money, to the teams that are willing to pay them the extra money.
"We saw them do it last year. They gave Michael Ohlman almost a million dollars in the 11th round. They gave Coffey almost a million dollars, even though he had Tommy John surgery in March. They wind up giving Givens a lot of money at the end. But you can get three more guys like that. That's how you get back into contention."
Here is part one with Jim Callis.
Here is part two with Jim Callis.
Where the Orioles select in each round:
Round 1 - 3rd
Round 2 - no pick
Round 3 - 85th
Round 4 - 118th
Round 5 - 148th
Rounds 6-50 - Every 30th pick after that.
High School players have been taken with the third pick three straight years:
2007 - Cubs take 3B Josh Vitters
2008 - Royals take Eric Hosmer
2009 - Padres take Donovan Tate
Keith Law's lastest draft projection:
Nats - Bryce Harper
Pirates - Jameson Taillon
O's - Manny Machado
Jim Callis' latest draft projection:
Nats - Bryce Harper
Pirates - Manny Machado
O's - Jameson Taillon
WOULD THE O'S GO AFTER POMERANZ IF THEY COULDNT GET TALLION? MACHADO IS SHORT STOP, CORRECT. DOESNT IT TAKE LONGER FOR POSITION PLAYERS TO DEVELOP VS. PITCHERS, OR IS IT JUST ABOUT THE SAME?
I THINK I WOULD STAY WITH PITCHING UNTIL THE 5TH ROUND OR SO.
STORMY IN SOUTH POINT
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I think they have had some interest in Pomeranz. How long it takes to develop is about the player, not that player's position. - Steve.
IT SHOULD BE INTERESTING. WHAT TIME DOES THE DRAFT BEGIN?
Steve-
You should post my comments from last week, cuz they are the same thing. lol. Just kidding.
I couldn't agree more. I mean, if they were going to give a 140 to Tex, if they just take the best available at each round, then, what...they spend 11 instead of 9? Ya know?
I think he might have hit it on the head with Hobgood, and I say this: The fans that are left, are more involved fans so they know Hobgood was a money pick. To say its not only upsets us. If they came out and said "yes, he was, but we knew there were for our 5 other players that we were able to get that we would not have otherwise" then, when people yell about saving money, they can say they are increasing their draft budgets.
I mean, in the long run, what does it matter if they spent 12 instead of 8? They spent 4.5 on Atkins and got NOTHING. That 4 extra in the draft might return 3 more players for 6 years each.
You know this, so, its an obvious thing, but i just thought I'd say it anyway.
I stand by my hunch that Juan has a 500+ record with the O's. It may just be 1 game, but geeez, if he gets them to play 480 ball, thats a miracle with this team.
Jon Heyman of SI has the Pirates taking Taillon at number two. Machado is a talent no doubt. And he has the "body" scouts love. Six three one hundred ninety five pounds. Question is, can he play baseball?
Here's my take on Hobgood's pick from last year.
1) The player has talent. You don't win National HS Player of the Year honors without having an immense amount of talent. The Orioles regarded him as the best available HS pitcher.
2) The O's knew that he would sign, that he didn't want to go to college. What is so bleeding wrong with taking a player you know wants to sign?
3) Some of the other players who were speculated to be in the mix at #5 were college pitchers, and the O's indicated to several sources that they didn't want another college pitcher because they thought that the organization was top heavy with pitchers and they needed someone who could start in the lower levels.
4) There was exactly one position player taken in the ten picks that followed our selection of Hobgood (Grant Green of USC at #13). Green is doing well offensively in A-ball, but he's made 16 errors in 51 games defensively. Before the 2009 college season started he was projected as high as #3, but as you can tell many teams besides the Orioles passed on him.
It irks me when people label Hobgood as a value pick, completely ignoring the fact that he has actual talent. I look forward to the day that Hobgood wears the Orioles jersey and proves the Brummies of the world wrong.
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No matter how hard anyone tries, some just won't get it with Hobgood. The other factor here is that Joe Jordan liked him a lot, he didn't see this pick as a reach. He has said that many times and many ways. Fans can call him untruthful if they want, but I've dealt with him too many times and I take him at his word. They spent a lot on the draft last year, it's not all about what is spent on just one player. Matt Wieters getting a 6M dollar bonus isn't helping him drive the ball anywhere right now. - Steve.
I agree. The only way this team will ever compete is to draft well and if it means spending money, they should do it. Without a pick in the 2nd round, they should put that money into the 1st round and draft the best talent and not someone like Hobgood.
On the other hand, these are just kids who should not be paid that kind of money.
If they had signed Capps like I wanted them too, they would have a closer, their 2nd round pick, and a few more wins.
I just read an article on the Baltimore Sun about trying to get rid of the veterens who's contract is up and get what you can for them and just go totally youth oriented. They then said do whatever it takes to get "good" free agents this winter. After reading your blogs on the draft, I kind of lean toward agreeing with Mr Callis that they should focus on the draft. But just like this year, as bad as Gonzalez has been for us to this point, I have barely seen a mention of how this knife in our side is going to be pushed a little farther in since we lost a very high second round pick because we signed him this past offseason. Not sure if we would get any supplemental draft picks with the crop of to be free agents we have, but in your opinion (based on Callis) should we try and hold on hoping to get more draft picks or go the Sun route of getting rid of them now.
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Depends what you can get in return for trade. Also, do you want to keep at least either Guthrie or Millwood to have one vet that can eat innings in what will be an otherwise young rotation? People always ask, would you trade this player? I'd trade almost anyone for the right return.
I did agree with a lot of Schmuck's article. Maybe the rest of this year should be about getting as much youth on the roster as possible. - Steve.
Well,just when you think it can't get any worse--it does.Now it seems that the Pirates are going to draft Taillmon,who is obviously the Orioles choice.Oh well.At least next year,they will have the first choice.Of course they will probably try to draft me.
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It's not time for "oh well" yet. That is Keith Law's latest projection but Baseball America still has them taking Machado. I don't think we know for sure what Pitt will be doing. - Steve.
Why not someone like Hobgood, it is the ring true tone with all of these Orioles fans that want to bash every single move this front office makes.
So Callis, Law, Mayo, etc... thought he was a "slot pick". Slot picks out of high school do not play in the Sally League in thier first full season. Where are some of the other big names wanting larger dollar amount to sign? Two other targets Tyler Matzek and Zac Wheeler have not made a professional pitch and are in the instructional leagues.
I watched the kid pitch and he is a high ceiling prospect that has workhorse written on him. The fans should care less if he was a slot guy, this guy, or that guy. Since Joe Jordan was giving Carte Blanche with scouting under McPhail, this organization has greatly improved it farm system and it is only improving.