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With baseball's First-Year Player Draft still almost two months away, the perception in some circles around the game is the Nationals won't have as easy a choice with the No. 1 pick this season as they did last year, when they took right-hander Stephen Strasburg first overall.
That's not how the Nationals are approaching it.
Barring an injury or a drastic change, the Nationals will likely take 17-year-old catcher Bryce Harper with the first pick in the June Draft. According to a source familiar with the situation, they see Harper as being head and shoulders above anyone else in the 2010 draft class and believe he could reach the majors within 2 1/2 years.
Harper, who has been called "the LeBron James of baseball," completed his GED in December 2009 so he could play junior-college baseball and be eligible for the 2010 draft, rather than finish high school. He is currently playing at the College of Southern Nevada, where he is batting .422 with a .516 on-base percentage, .891 slugging percentage, 15 homers and 42 RBI in 39 games.
The Nationals are pleased with Harper's arrangement, as it makes him easier to scout than he would be if he was in high school. He is already playing with a wood bat, and the junior-college level of competition is higher than what he'd face in high school. What's more, Harper is getting pitched to at Southern Nevada, where most high school teams would pitch around him.
Washington has scouted Harper for the last several years, though its top executives have not watched the 6-foot-3 catcher play yet. The Nationals believe he is as surefire a talent as Jayson Heyward, the outfielder selected by the Atlanta Braves out of high school in 2007 who is starting his rookie year with the team.
According to the source, the Nationals will take the best player available, and the decision is almost as cut-and-dried as last year's decision to take Strasburg.
Harper's advisor, Scott Boras, got Strasburg the richest deal ever given to a draft pick last summer, when he agreed to a four-year, $15.1 million deal with Strasburg just before the Aug. 17 deadline. Boras has said he does not consider Harper to be in the same class as Strasburg, though many scouts see him as a similarly rare talent. It's likely negotations for Harper would be lengthy; the Nationals have not made detailed inquiries about his salary demands, but intend to sign him if they do indeed draft him.
General manager Mike Rizzo has historically preferred college players, but took high school shortstop Justin Upton with the first pick in the 2005 draft when he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Harper, who also throws a 96-mph fastball, was featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated last year, and could project at a number of different positions. He has become an Internet sensation after video surfaced of him hitting a 502-foot home run (albeit with an aluminum bat) at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., last year.
If the Nationals take him, he could eventually pair with Strasburg to give the team two of the most highly-touted (and handsomely paid) prospects in the history of the draft. Right now, it appears that is what the team plans to do.
As a Nationals fan, I am excited to think that Harper may be playing at Nationals Stadium in the near future. But reading this story leaves me wondering how credible the source is. "a source familiar with the situation" ? Heck, I believe I am reasonably 'familiar with the situation'! This doesn't scream slam dunk to me......
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Can't tell you who it is, other than to say I wouldn't waste your time with it if it wasn't from somebody who would know.
Ben
Give Ben some credit! Quite a scoop here, and I like the aggressiveness by the team here.
Wait, so Wil Nieves is NOT the catcher of the future?
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Who?
Ben
Nice scoop Ben.
You definitely deserve credit for a great scoop on this one. I guess it is no surprise to hear that the Nats see Harper as a top talent. I had figured that their questions about drafting him would revolve around signability and makeup. Your story addresses the former, but have you heard anything about the latter? The Nats are always praising Strasburg's humility and willingness to learn from veterans. From what I've read, Harper might not share those traits. Is that a concern?
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It's hard to know. Harper has come off as brash in a few interviews, but that might be more from competitiveness than anything else. He talks about wanting to be one of the all-time greats, and that doesn't come without a little bravado.
Ben
Will Nieves!
This was probably part of the Nationals' reasoning in giving Ivan Rodriguez a two-year contract -- he can give Harper much valuable instruction about the mechanics of catching, handling a pitching staff and so on. (He's had a pretty good bat over the years as well.) Ten years from now, it would be delightful if the baseball community regarded Strasburg and Harper as Washington's equivalent of Ford and Berra (with comparable statistical and team success results). After the bad hands Washington baseball fans have been dealt for decades and decades, it's time for some good fortune.
Great to see a post on a topic not also discussed by the other bloggers. Good stuff! Did you talk with the source about whether the Nats see Harper as a major league catcher, or expect him to move to the outfield or first base?
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The source said if Harper turns out to be a catcher in the majors, "even better." I think they think his talent is so good that he's worth taking no matter where he plays. I believe he'll start at catcher if they do indeed take him, but remember, they like Derek Norris quite a bit, too.
Ben
ok, so what do we do with Ivan Rodriquez?
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Play him until his contract runs out. Harper won't be ready for the majors before that.
Ben
Harper will end up as a 3B, SS, or RF depending on his athleticism. This pick should be a no-brainer for the Nats.
What's the report on Harper's defense? Is a a Weiters type whose value behind the plate will equal or exceed his offensive value, or will the nats seek to extend his longevity by finding him another position like RF of first base?
Great stuff! What is the difference between according to a source and off the record?How come it seems that different sources have different infos?Thanks
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Ooh, a little journalism 101 discussion, huh? Off the record, in the strictest sense, means something is not for publication. It's just for the reporter's background or understanding. Then there's not for attribution, which is the same as publishing someting from an anonymous source. In journalism classes, you're taught to agree on the terms of off-the-record statements ahead of time, and not to let sources take something off the record if they haven't asked for that privilege ahead of time.
In reality, though, you have to account for the reality that most sources aren't as educated on those terms as reporters are. In baseball, off the record tends to mean the same thing as not for attribution. But the key is to develop a mutual trust with sources -- that you know you can trust what they say and they know you're not going to burn them.
Different sources say different things because different reporters talk to different people. It's as simple as that. With this particular story, though, I'm extremely confident in the source.
Ben
Thank you! After reading your answer a few times I think I got it...But what's in it for the source if they remain anonymous?They're helping you out by giving you a scoop, are they just telling you because they think you're nice?I'm sure that the trust part is probably the hardest part about this..
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There are numerous motivations for talking to reporters, and I won't try to get into all of them here. But I'll leave it at this: Many sources will help reporters out because of a relationship built over time, but there are certainly benefits for some sources to put something out there. Keep that in mind if you hear a breathless report on the slow pace of some draft pick's negotiations this summer.
Ben
Who is the better defensive catcher Norris or Harper. I'm guessing if all goes well, they won't both be catchers for the Nats. Maybe Norris is traded or Harper changes his primary position.
Harpers known as the better defensive guy right now his arm is very strong(can throw 96 mph) but we'll see how much Norris can develop this year. Here's some possible positional players for the future Nats:
LF: Destin Hood
CF: Eury Perez
RF: Bryce Harper/M. Burgess
3B: Zimmerman
2B: Espinosa
SS: I. Desmond
1B: A. Dunn/D. Norris
C: B. Harper/D. Norris/J. Flores
If talent was the only factor, of course they would take Harper. Unfortunately, money will have a say in the matter, and no matter how good he is, the Nats may not be willing to cough up another huge signing bonus.
Interesting mix with the catchers-Harper/Norris/Flores. There was a Yankee team where they had three great catchers-Berra/Howard/Blanchard- and that group hit 20+ homers each one year as well as the Series. It is still a record. I say build the franchise with the best and let them grow. BTW-Nice Ben, nice.