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After the Nationals' 7-6 win over the Padres - a game they would've lost without Adam Dunn hitting three homers - the talk about Dunn's future inevitably heated up.
Byron Kerr wrote about the strong comments Ryan Zimmerman made arguing for Dunn to stay.
Dunn, as you know, is the subject of hot-and-heavy trade rumors this month, with his contract up after the year, the Nationals yet to sign him to an extension and several American League teams frothing at the mouth about Dunn as a DH.
Josh Willingham's name has come up plenty in rumors as well, the thinking being that he'd command a nice return before his final year of arbitration.
Zimmerman took the opposite view, wondering aloud why the Nationals would break up one of the best 3-4-5 combinations in the National League. I won't dive too deep into the Dunn/Willingham debate, other than to say this: What the Nationals have right now is pretty rare, and very cost-effective.
In weighted on-base average (wOBA), the Nationals have the second-, seventh- and ninth-best players in the National League. The only other team with two in the top 10 is the Cardinals, with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.
And in wins above replacement player (WARP), which uses offensive and defensive metrics to measure how much value a player adds to his team, Zimmerman is fourth, Willingham is 10th and Dunn is 17th in the National League.
Think about that for a second: Willingham and Dunn, two players roundly devalued for their defense, are among the top 20 most valuable players in the National League according to a statistic that weighs defense in equal measure with offense. They're not stellar defenders, by any means, but they're both playing well enough not to negate their offensive contributions.
I get the fact that both players are approaching the downhill part of the production curve, age-wise, and both could regress defensively. But if the Nationals locked up Dunn for say, three years and extended Willingham by a couple years, they wouldn't be exposing themselves long enough to see either player take a major nosedive in production.
The interesting factor here is this: Because of each player's reputation as a limited defender, he's not likely to fetch a return on the open market in line with his production this year. The numbers we hear thrown around for Dunn are something in the neighborhood of three years and $40 million. But Dunn is having a better year than Prince Fielder, who's being talked about as the next $200 million man, and Ryan Howard, who just signed a $125 million deal in Philadelphia. Again, there are reasons why both players are valued more highly than Dunn. But the gulf isn't that wide, and if the Nationals can lock down a couple more years of this production at $13-$15 million a season, it seems like a good move.
Same goes for Willingham, who's likely to get something like $8 million in arbitration this year. His stats this season are further beyond his career averages than Dunn's are, but not so much that it's unreasonable to expect him to do this for another year or two. If he keeps playing like this, $8 million next year is a bargain.
The last thing I'll say is this: Zimmerman - whose lobbying last night was as strong as we'll ever hear from him - isn't locked up forever. His contract only runs for three more seasons after this one, at which point he'll hit free agency at the age of 29. If the Nationals tear down the middle of their order and spend two more years rebuilding it, what will Zimmerman think of that? It's impossible to predict what the landscape will look like in 2013, with Stephen Strasburg presumably having fully developed by then and Bryce Harper possibly in the mix. But the Nationals will need to start considering Zimmerman's future before 2013 - they'll probably need to re-open extension talks sometime in 2012. It's not a guarantee that Zimmerman stays forever.
So for the price of keeping Zimmerman happy - not to mention getting players who appear to be producing at relative bargain rates - it might be worth it for the Nationals to keep this group together. It appears Mike Rizzo, at the very least, is going to demand an exorbitant rate of return for either Dunn or Willingham, which probably means both players are staying. The decision the Nationals will have to make is if that's the best course of action anyway.
I agree that they have a bonanza in Dunn and Willingham and they should extend at least Dunn for the 3 years you have suggested. They will likely go to arbitration with Willingham and worry about an extension next year.
Having watched both this year their defense is not a negative. Guzzi, Kennedy and Desi's defense have cost us many games (Guzzi going all the way back to 2005). Big Bad Dunn and the Hammer have not cost us games.
Get it Dunn Rizzo!
I am all about Dunn being re-signed.
His skill set, and his position that he plays, should slightly negate the usual decline you see in players as they hit their 30's.
In my dreams, Dunn would be re-signed for three years in the coming week, and the Nats would re-sign Hammer to a two year deal, after his arbitration runs out next year.
That way, you keep the 3-4-5 together through 2013... and by then, the next crop of Nationals should be ready to go.
Agree 100% on everything you say in this piece. I think management does too.
"If the Nationals tear down the middle of their order and spend two more years rebuilding it, what will Zimmerman think of that?"
-->He'll deal, he's a pro. I think he also wants to keep Dunn around not just for baseball reasons but since there good friends off-the-field along with Willingham. I think Dunn is a bit limited besides his power production. He is Albert Pujols Lite and should be paid like that. He's Mr.National, even Stras is the "face" of the team, franchise, organization, or whatever term you want to use. Bryce Harper is your clean up batter in 2013, maybe 2014, Zimm won't even be 30 yet(well at the end of 2014). The team is probably NOT contending next year anyways. 2012 is their first legitimate chance with hopefully a solid rotation and a more enhanced bullpen.
"But the Nationals will need to start considering Zimmerman's future before 2013 - they'll probably need to re-open extension talks sometime in 2012. It's not a guarantee that Zimmerman stays forever."
-->Of course there is no guarantee, but I would be very disappointed in the franchise if they did NOT reward Zimm for all he has given to the franchise both on-and-off the field. Sure, he comes across as a bit cocky and I don't know if he's someone who I would want to have a beer with(if he wasn't such a good baseball player), but he isn't a bad guy. He has been with the franchise since near it's inception (coming in 2005 with the first year draft and being promoted to the bigs later) and is relative "home town" player growing up in Va Beach and as Emmi would say, "being the Pride of UVA."
Baseball (until Curt Flood there wasn't free agency of course), sports, and work in general isn't what it used to be 20-30 years ago, where people would stay at their job forever. I believe loyalty goes both between the employee and employer and there is a lot less of it these days.
That being said, the Nats need to treat Zimm like the Orioles treated Cal, the Royals treated George Brett, Yanks treated Derek Jeter, and Ben's Twins treated Kirby (and now Joe Mauer). I would much rather the Nats go all out for Zimm than Dunn.
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He'll deal, huh? Not how this works. He's dropped thinly-veiled hints that he'd leave if the team isn't competitive, and Mauer probably wouldn't have stayed if the Twins didn't make some good-faith moves last season to try and win. Part of going all-out for Zimmerman is putting pieces in place that he believes will help him win.
Loyalty, like everything else, is a fluid concept.
Ben
Good analysis, Ben.
As much as Zimm has publicly come out, on more than one ocassion saying how much the team needs Dunn, what's to say he doesn't demand a trade if his buddy gets traded away and the team takes two more steps back?
Goose:
Good point. Re-signing Zim starts with moves the club makes now by re-signing Adam.
Question not stated, whom do the NATS brass replace Dunn with? Robbing Peter to pay Paul will not re-sign Zim. And then you have Stras, Storen & Harper watching, too.
Money is great and at some point enough is enough, but a World Series Ring is forever and opens the door to serious Hall of Fame consideration. It takes years of chemistry, durabilty and good luck to make a run for the championship.
Dunn is durable, a fan fave and produces for a bargain. There is a lot more to filling seats then selling to Mets and Phillies fans.
"He'll deal, huh? Not how this works. He's dropped thinly-veiled hints that he'd leave if the team isn't competitive [...]"
-->What I was trying to say is I don't think it's make or break re-signing Dunn. This happens all the time in sports, it's a business, and sometimes your colleagues leave to go off to bigger-and-better places. It certaintly helps if Dunn stays, but I don't think it's lethal. We saw Miggys threats in Bmore (his first time around) and recently Dwayne Wade with Miami (let's see where Lebron ends up...). Even with these overpaid athletes, they want to win. Players are a lot less tolerant than they were in George Brett or Ernie Banks day about losing. Not saying either wanted to lose, but they cared more about the team than their own individual goals(I believe).
"Part of going all-out for Zimmerman is putting pieces in place that he believes will help him win."
-->Of course, but the future looks bright for the Nats. Strasburg, Harper, and let's not forget Storen. They should be bigger players on the free agent market with these stars in the future.
Let's hope "the Pride" stays and the team commits to him and he commits to the team. Yes, I do believe the Nats (I mean Lerners) need to show Zimm they are serious about putting this team into contention on regular basis. In essence, give him a reason to stick around, not just a paycheck. As I said loyalty is a two way street and I believe it.
Thats a great idea, but at what cost? If the price is right do it, but if not either is tradable.
Ben, I agree with you, and Zim, 100% on this. I've been saying for quite a while that setting things up to make sure Zim stays with the team after his contract runs out in 2013 is very important. For that reason, the Nats need to think about contending starting next year, not in 2012. We are past the rebuilding period. It's time to start winning, and keeping our 3-4-5 together is very important to that. If we trade either Dunn or Willingham for prospects this year, then next year is another lost cause. That's a bad plan. Instead they should be re-signed, and we should improve the middle infield and rotation through a few key FA pickups. It's time to spend the money that the Lerners have been making on all the Strasburg T-shirts they are now selling.
I also think that that WARP ratings demonstrate how much Dunn and Willingham have improved defensively. LF and 1B are premium offensive positions. We don't need, and should not try to get, defensive wizards in those spots. As long as their defense isn't outweighing their offense, that's good enough. Willingham particularly has turned into a very decent defender. He's smart, doesn't make mistakes, and has made some nifty catches. Christian Guzman in the outfield he is not.
I truly hope that MikeLernerStan make the right move here. These guys want to be Nationals and the fans want them to stay. Get 'er Dunn!
"Question not stated, whom do the NATS brass replace Dunn with? Robbing Peter to pay Paul will not re-sign Zim. And then you have Stras, Storen & Harper watching, too."
-->Well I think getting a solid center fielder or 2nd basemen is what the Nats need. Of course, starting pitching is priceless. Anything short of these would be a loss.
"Money is great and at some point enough is enough, but a World Series Ring is forever and opens the door to serious Hall of Fame consideration. It takes years of chemistry, durabilty and good luck to make a run for the championship."
-->Good points, Rome wasn't built in day. I don't think we really need to be thinking HOF right now, we can have that talk in 20 years.
"Dunn is durable, a fan fave and produces for a bargain. There is a lot more to filling seats then selling to Mets and Phillies fans."
-->Were you at the Mets series for the non-Stras games, they weren't to well attended. I don't think Dunn is a bargain, he is pretty expensive for a tool and a half player. Its a difficult decision to say the least. If somehow Zimm will sign at a good price and for a while b/c his friends and most successful players are here, then it is all worth it.
"For that reason, the Nats need to think about contending starting next year, not in 2012."
-->Well they will need to greatly improve the pitching staff to do that. Stras is the only lock I see for next years team. Lannan obviously regressed. Livo isn't even signed for next year and it would be difficult for him to repeat his numbers. Stammen needs to be more consistent especially on the road. Marquis, (fill in the blank). Detwiler is a complete mystery. Let's see how J-Zimm comes back from Tommy John. Atliano has definitely been getting lucky as well as run support. Olsen is a solid guy if he pitches post-injury the way he did pre-injury(do we have his rights next year?) This is being said, I don't think it's too realistic to expect this team to be contending next year, but it's wishful thinking. I don't think Cliff Lee is necessarily the answer, how are the Mariners doing after signing him and others after all?The front of the bullpen definitely needs to be enhanced. We got three solid pitchers in the pen and some good eggs on good days.
Hitting wise were almost there, hopefully Espinoza is up and Morse and/or Bernie (Werth in a perfect world) can fill a void in Center and/or Right. I don't have too much confidence in Nyjer. This is of course assuming they have Willingham and Dunn or find equivlants, who are better next year.
This is a team after all just who over the past two years accumulated more than 200 losses. I hate to tell you Natstown but be patient.
"It's time to start winning, and keeping our 3-4-5 together is very important to that."
-->Are you a Caps fan?, they blew up the team Ted was villified, now they are hottest ticket in town. While you might have gotten an emotional attachment to some of these players, you have no idea how Dunn and Willingham are going to produce. Just last year Willingham was battling Austin Kearns for playing time. He's had a solid season, but I can easily see him regressing.
For the record, I think Willingham is a solid player, but I don't think he's that good as I have been seeing comments in here.
Excellent work Ben;
However...., I believe the word on the street is, Dunn wants Jayson Bay money, in all honesty Uncle Ted ain't budging on those numbers.
They have both Hammer under control for one more year and Z for three.
In all honesty I don't think any of these three will be here after 2013. If they don't trade Dunn they will let him walk and hope to get a compensation draft pick ala Soriano. Hammer has the best chance to be traded but in all reality what does he bring in return? No doubt Zimm will be looking for Texiera money come 2013, so with that one its either he gets it or lands with the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets etc.
If this has been the Lerners track record why would anyone think its goning to be any different with these three.
Its not about winning its about the benjamins!
I don't think Zimm can command Texieria money, unless he gets MUCH better. He won't land with the Yanks unless they get rid of Aroid.
Hopefully your prediction is wrong, but wouldn't suprise as you pointed out the Lerners don't have a great track record.
No, I'm not much of a Caps fan (don't shoot me), but I take your point. There's certainly something to blowing up and rebuilding when you need to. But Leonsis did that how long ago? And unless you want to be the Pirates, you can't just keep blowing up the Nats every few years with the idea that prospects will at some point gel into a winner somewhere down the line. Right now we have two franchise player -- Zim and Strasburg. We need to build a champion or at least a contender on a timetable that works with them. So are you really saying we should blow up this team now and give up any shot of re-signing Zimmerman? And if you don't re-sign Zim, how the heck are we going to keep Strasburg after his first six years? The Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, and even the Phillies will pay whatever it takes to sign Zim and/or Strasburg when they can. So unless they have a reason to stay they won't. That's my point.
You are definitely right about the need to improve the pitching staff. But way too much reliance has been put on certain players (Detweiler, Wang, Znn, Marquis, Olsen) recovering from injuries and becoming great pitchers. I think we'll be lucky if one turns out --Znn being the best candidate. And we'll be lucky if one of the current stock of young righties (Martin, Atliano, Stammen, Martis, Mock) is a servicable No. 5 starter on a contending team. So acquiring a solid No. 2 through a trade or FA should be a priority.
You say "hitting wise, we're almost there." Yet you're willing to trade Dunn and Willingham. That seems crazy. How can you have more confidence in Morse, Bernadina, or Espinosa developing into consistent major league hitters than in Willingham continuing to be a solid No. 5 hitter for the next several years?
One place where we definitely agree is Nyjer. My hope for next year is that they re-sign Dunn and Willingham, acquire Werth or another proven bat for RF, and move Bernadina to CF. Then hope that Desmond grows out of his fielding problems, do something about 2B, and sign or trade for a solid No. 2 pitcher, so you have a rotation of Strasburg, No. 2, Znn, and two of Marquis/Det/Olsen/Wang/Lannan/Atliano/Stammen/Martin. I think that team could make a run at the playoffs and convince Zim that he should stick around.
I share the concern that the Lerners are more concerned about Benjamins than winning. The thing is that winning brings in Benjamins. Turn this team into a contender and Nats Park can be close to full every night. That's what they have in Boston, New York, and even Philly. This area will support a winner and that will make the Lerners alot of money. An increase in attendance of 20,000 a night makes them a million dollars in ticket sales alone every night. (not to mention proceeds from beer and Strasburg T-shirts). Starting doing that and you can afford Texiera money even without dipping into the billions you already have. Keep rebuilding the team every few years and you'll never get there.
Great analysis, Ben. I hope Rizzo & the Lerners read your blogs.
There may be another 'plus' about Dunn that I'm not sure clearly translates in the stats: at 6'6" he's a big target at 1st base and I think that helps everyone, including Zimmerman, in getting guys out at 1st. Anecdotally, I've watched Zimm "launch" many balls this year in the general direction of 1st base and have Dunn save Zimm's bacon by managing to catch them. In fact, it might even show up in the stats - last year Zimm had 3 fielding errors and 14 throwing errors. So far this year he's had 3 fielding errors (a thought on that later) and 5 throwing errors. That could project to a 30% decrease in throwing errors last year to this year if he stays on the same pace the rest of the year. Not to take anything away from Zimm and any efforts he may have made to improve, but many other 1st basemen would not have been able to field some of his throws, which would have resulted in a higher error rate for Zimm. Same might also apply for others in the infield.
The PS on Zimm's fielding errors (which has nothing to do with Dunn or Willingham trade talks) - I think he and Desmond are still working out the dynamics this year in the 3rd base-SS area. In previous years Zimm had to at least attempt a lot of crazy desperate plays because he knew the SS on the field lacked the range to get to many of the balls. The result was a lot more Web Gems than Zimm is putting up this year, but relatively fewer fielding errors than this year (which could double 2009 totals, theoretically). I think sometimes this year there has been some hesitancy on Zimm's part not being sure whether he should go for the ball or let Desmond get it. I think eventually Zimm & Desmond will be like Jeter & ARod (seriously, not this year but maybe next), but they have to figure things out between them.
I agree with most of what you said 222 ... although I suspect that Morse could give Willingham a run for his money as that #5 hitter were he given a chance ... saving the Lerners much $$$. I don't think Werth is worth what he is asking for. Much prefer to see BJ Upton from the Rays before Werth. Now you have yet another guy who can play center and right (like Bernadina and Morgan). Morgan might make a nice utility guy replacing Harris. He does bat left.
So far I have been right-on as far as my hunches about Morse and Martin right? Of the two, I believe Morse has the potential to be a break out star or an Elias B/A player.
On your search for another power pitcher I think he is on his way in the person of Trevor Holder. I told everyone this guy was a lot better than they thought ... phattt these people know nothing. They really just need one or two lefties at this point.
I am NOT advocating blowing up the roster, I am just saying it works sometimes and there's an example. I think were out of the planning stage and into the beginning of construction.
Willingham hasn't been consistent for long enough, he's less than a year out of battling Austin Kearns for the LF spot. Let's see how his 2nd half goes and 1st half next year. I DON'T know if Dunn is bluffing or not, a la Soriano. I am prett ambivialent for the record.
I think they can make a run for the playoffs too, you just have to be patient it won't be next year.
I agree 100% with that statement, Philly/the Yankees among others didn't sell out until they started winning consistrently.
And Guzzie and Dunn will be like Cano and Texieria.
Given that Dunn is a 2.6 WAR and that the market pays about $4.5 million per win, the Nationals have already almost gotten their money's worth out of Dunn this year. Also given that Dunn is playing a bit over his head right now in terms of his total per-year production, I wouldn't expect Dunn to have the same kind of year in the coming years based just on what we've seen in the first half. Heck, I'm not so sure he'll have the same kind of production in the second half (.349 BABIP this season).
I wouldn't like the value the Nationals would get on a 3 year/$40M deal with Dunn based on his career WAR averages, but I'm not saying I'd trade Dunn, either. Even if Dunn walks after this year, the Nationals might get better value by just pocketing the draft picks in comparison to the non-premium prospects the Nationals would get in return for Dunn in a trade this month. I don't think Dunn gets traded and Washington offers him something like a two-year, $25 million deal and he stays. No team will look at the Howard contract as a baseline for what to offer Dunn because the Howard deal was so laughable.
Josh Willingham is a 3.0 WAR this season. I'm not sure what the Nationals are paying him, but I'm sure it isn't that much (relatively). Willingham's production indicates that he's been worth $13.5M to the Nationals for these first 3+ months alone. I wouldn't be surprised if Willingham is a 5.5+ WAR by the end of the year. Willingham has actually had more consistent production in his career than Dunn. Willingham isn't a great left fielder, but he gets it done out there.
Luke
One last thought/response. I think that Willingham has been consistent for long enough. He was good in his last two years with the Marlins, good last year, great this year. Certainly he has more of a track record than Morse or Bernadina. You keep referring to the fact that he's only a year past battling Austin Kearns for a starting position, but it's not his fault that Manny Acta had an inflated view of Kearns' talent. And don't forget, Adam Dunn was the starting LF at the beginning of the season in 2009, not Kearns. But it's true that there's no need to lock him up this year. I like the idea because of the message it would send to the team and the fans about the seriousness of the effort to build a contender soon.
In the end, I want the Lerners to spend what it takes to win. People keeps saying that Dunn should only get a two or three year deal, but if the Lerners have to offer a 4th year to keep Dunn, I think that's worth doing. I predict that Dunn will still play well enough in the third and fourth year to make the deal a success, but if he doesn't, and if there's a viable replacement for him by then, then eat the salary and play someone else.
"You keep referring to the fact that he's only a year past battling Austin Kearns for a starting position, but it's not his fault that Manny Acta had an inflated view of Kearns' talent. And don't forget, Adam Dunn was the starting LF at the beginning of the season in 2009, not Kearns."
-->I stand corrected, you're right about the pre-NJ days. My bad, Willingham hasn't played right this year. Manny has his "favorites" too, just like Riggs as we always ridicule (sp?) him about.
"I like the idea because of the message it would send to the team and the fans about the seriousness of the effort to build a contender soon."
-->What are we the Yankees? This team is heading in the right direction, no doubt about it, but which fan base are you talking about sending the right message to? The sub-15,000 people who came during the Padres series and couldn't brave the humidity? It's a business and I don't believe Natstown is big enough that the Lerners owe them anything.
For all of you who hate Angelos(and i'm not a big fan of everything he's done, hi Peter if your reading this since you own the majority of MASN). Pat Gillick wanted to dismantle the team that went to the playoffs in the mid-90s, which Angelos rejected and his rationle for vetoing his GM was that the Orioles consistently sold out and they were NOT going to field minor leaguers. Much to Angelos surprise they went on a run in 96, according to the Buster Olney book, "Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty."
So yeah when the Nats are rountinely getting 35-40k, then they should not alienate their fanbase until then, business first.