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Stephen Strasburg faces the Atlanta Braves tonight, and for the first time, we've got a precedent for how the rookie will handle a lineup. The Braves are the first team Strasburg will have faced twice, and they tagged him with four runs (three of them earned) in Atlanta last month, as an epic pitcher's duel turned into a 5-0 Braves win. We've already discussed the hyperbole around Jason Heyward's first encounter with Strasburg. But the task of matching up with big-league hitters that have prior knowledge about him adds some intrigue to this game, too.
There were a few hitters in the first Braves game that gave Strasburg some trouble and a couple more dangerous bats that could present issues tonight. Let's take a look at how he handled some of them then, and what that might mean for tonight:
Chipper Jones
Last time: Jones singled in the fourth inning off Strasburg, and drew a key seventh-inning leadoff walk that set up the Braves' big inning. He went 1-for-2 against Strasburg with the one walk, and though he's only hitting .255 this season, Jones has proven all year he can still get on base enough to do damage; his OBP is .380 this year.
How Strasburg pitched him:
-First at-bat; fastball low and away, called strike; changeup low and away, foul ball; curveball low and inside, ball; fastball high and inside, flyout to left.
-Second at-bat: Curveball low and inside, ball; fastball low, foul; changeup outside, ball; changeup low, swinging strike; fastball away, foul; fastball middle, single to left.
-Third at-bat: Changeup low, ball; fastball inside, ball; fastball low, ball; fastball low, ball.
What it means: Jones is weakest against sliders, particularly sliders low and away. Strasburg pounded that part of the zone with fastballs and changeups. If he can get that pitch over for a strike against Jones, it can be a good weapon, particularly in pitchers' counts, though Strasburg isn't afraid to throw it when he's behind. Jones will likely be sitting on fastballs, as many hitters do against Strasburg, and he's also susceptible to inside stuff. Strasburg needs to work his fastball in and his off-speed stuff away. There's not much to glean from the walk -- he just missed four times. It happens.
Brian McCann
Last time: McCann came away with two hits on Strasburg, singling to left in the first inning and only missing an RBI because Josh Willingham threw Melky Cabrera out at home. He also moved Jones to second with a single in the seventh, and whiffed at a changeup in the fourth inning.
How Strasburg pitched him:
-First at-bat: Changeup away, single to left.
-Second at-bat: Fastball low, called strike; changeup low and away, swinging strike; changeup low and away, swinging strike.
-Third at-bat: Fastball away, single to center.
What it means: It's pretty clear where McCann was looking, and what he was looking for; he swung at five of the six pitches he saw, and got two hits on first-pitch swings. McCann is a skilled fastball-changeup hitter; he's batting .301 against righties' fastballs and .345 against their changeups. He's susceptible to chasing inside, though, and Strasburg might be able to bust him once or twice inside. McCann is typically a pull hitter, so if Strasburg can get him looking for stuff to shoot to right, he can get some swings and misses.
Martin Prado
Last time: Strasburg kept the Braves' dangerous leadoff hitter at bay, inducing two groundouts and getting a called strikeout against him in the sixth inning. But containing the All-Star second baseman will be critical again tonight.
How Strasburg pitched him:
-First at-bat: Fastball away, ball; fastball inside, groundout to third.
-Second at-bat: Fastball low, ball; fastball away, called strike; curveball middle, foul; fastball, middle in, groundout to third.
-Third at-bat: Changeup middle, called strike; changeup low, foul; fastball high, foul; fastball outside, called strike.
What it means: Prado is an aggressive hitter, and though Strasburg didn't throw him a first-pitch strike in either of the first two at-bats, he managed to get groundouts by challenging Prado inside. That's where Prado likes the ball, and Strasburg gambled that he could get Prado to put the ball in play if he threw the ball there. And on his third at-bat, he worked the middle - though some of the pitches weren't spotted perfectly - before clipping the corner on a fastball Prado could only watch. It was a daring, if confident, approach against Prado from a pitcher who believed his stuff was good enough to beat a good hitter. Strasburg should go back to it tonight.
The Braves' lineup, obviously, takes on a different feel with Heyward in it, and Gonzalez is also in the middle of one of his best power seasons. But against the Braves' best hitters, Strasburg largely has the benefit of prior experience. We'll see which side it benefits tonight.
