Does Rutschman's big game lead to a big year? (plus other notes)

A player who has dealt with enormous expectations for a long time, O’s catcher Adley Rutschman delivered an enormous performance on his first major league Opening Day as the Orioles held off Boston 10-9 at Fenway Park. 

Rutschman hit a solo homer in the first, delivered a two-run single in the fifth and singled in a run in the seventh. It was a 5-for-5 game and he walked once to reach base six times while driving in four runs.

Rutschman is the first player to go 5-for-5 or better with at least four RBIs on Opening Day, and he's only the third to go 5-for-5 with multiple RBIs in an opener since 1920, joining Hall of Famers Babe Ruth and Billy Herman. Rutschman is the first Orioles catcher to homer on Opening Day since Matt Wieters in 2013. He is also the youngest Oriole to homer on Opening Day since Adam Jones in 2010, and the youngest to do it in his first at-bat since Cal Ripken Jr. in 1984.

Pretty historic day for the player that was the unanimous winner of the Most Valuable Oriole award in 2022 and who finished second to Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez for the American League Rookie of the Year honor.

"Not a bad way to have your first one," Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said. "Swung the bat great, caught outstanding, gives us an early boost homer there right away in the first inning."

Hyde added: "If you do anything historical for the Baltimore Orioles ... there have been a lot of great players who wore this uniform. It's not going to be the only time you're going to say that about Adley. He's going to be doing other things that are going to be firsts, as well, because he's just a super-special player. And he hasn't even played a full year yet. Good things coming."

His solo homer, hit 104.5 mph off Corey Kluber in the first inning, got the offense started yesterday, and the O's would go on to produce 10 runs and 15 hits and steal five bases. Ramón Urías added a two-run homer as the Orioles’ 10 runs came up three short of their record for an Opening Day game. They beat Kansas City 13-5 in their opener in 1982.

With Rutschman putting together such a monster game, it is natural to wonder if it’s the start of a monster season.

In January, I talked to Baltimorean Dan Szymborski, senior writer for FanGraphs.com. He has run his ZiPS projection system since 2004. The computer projection uses multi-year statistics, with more recent seasons weighted more heavily to attempt to tell us what stats the player might produce for the year ahead.

Szymborski’s system projects a strong season ahead for Rutschman, one that would place him ninth in the majors in Wins Above Replacement and ahead of such players as Rodríguez, Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Freddie Freeman and Mike Trout.

ZiPS sees Rutschman batting .262/.363/.460 this year with an .823 OPS, producing an OPS+ of 126, which is 26 percent above league average. He would hit 39 doubles with one triple, 18 homers and 63 RBIs.

Maybe some of those numbers will even prove to be modest for Rutschman’s 2023 season. Szymborski said that if Rutschman does have that monster season, something he put as a one-in-10 chance, he could max out by batting .308/.417/.568, which would produce a .985 OPS for a 166 OPS+. Those numbers, if reached, would lead to 7.4 WAR. There have been just 24 catcher seasons of 7.0 WAR or better, including one by former O’s backstop Chris Hoiles. That projection has Rutschman hitting 26 home runs and close to 50 doubles.

There were others that came up big for the Orioles Thursday, including Urías, who had a key homer. Logan Gillaspie got a huge strikeout out of the bullpen. Right-handed starter Kyle Gibson did a decent job. But two I would like to point out are Ryan Mountcastle and Félix Bautista.

Mountcastle had a strong spring at the plate but didn’t walk once in 48 at-bats. He walked twice in his first three times to bat yesterday. A bit more patience and plate discipline for this young hitter might lead him to a big season as well. In addition to the walks, Mountcastle hit the ball four times to the right side against Boston, lining out twice and once hitting a double. His liner to right that was caught in the ninth was hit 106.3 mph, the hardest-hit ball by an Oriole all day.

Bautista, after throwing just 4 2/3 innings in spring training games, got a 25-pitch save. And with the team leading by just one run and the potential tie run on second base, he fanned Adam Duvall to end the game. He bent but didn’t break, and in the ninth got two of Boston’s best hitters out, striking out of Devers on a 99 mph fastball and getting Masataka Yoshida to ground into what should been a game-ending double play but for Jorge Mateo’s throwing error. That could have unnerved Bautista and led to this game ending in a Baltimore loss, but he got the strikeout to preserve a crazy win in the opener.

Here is a list of Orioles that have had a game with five or more hits and four or more RBIs. It has happened before yesterday eight times, done by six different players.

* 9-4-70 – Brooks Robinson at Boston, five hits and four RBIs.

* 8-14-73 – Don Baylor at Texas, five hits and four RBIs.

* 9-3-83 – Cal Ripken Jr. at Minnesota with five hits and four RBIs.

* 5-5-85 – Cal Ripken Jr. at Minnesota with five hits and four RBIs.

* 5-17-96 – Rafael Palmeiro vs. Seattle with five hits and six RBIs.

* 8-7-98 – Brady Anderson at Minnesota with five hits and four RBIs.

* 6-13-99 – Cal Ripken Jr. at Atlanta with six hits and six RBIs.

* 8-17-08 – Melvin Mora at Detroit with five hits and six RBIs.