Can Clay show improvement after erratic rookie year?

As the lockout drags on, we're taking this opportunity to break down some players in the Nationals organization who haven't garnered as many headlines. Today we look at left-hander Sam Clay, who spent most of 2021 in the big league bullpen but finished the season in the minors. ...

LHP SAM CLAY

Bats/Throws: L/L

Height/Weight: 6-foot-3, 227 lbs.

Age on opening day 2022: 28

How acquired: Signed as free agent, November 2020

Service time: 169 days

2021 salary: $575,000

Contract status: Under team control in 2022, likely arbitration-eligible in 2024, free agent in 2028

2021 stats (MLB): 0-5, 5.60 ERA, 58 G, 45 IP, 55 H, 32 R, 28 ER, 4 HR, 22 BB, 34 SO, 5 HBP, 1.711 WHIP, .296 Opp. AVG

2021 stats (Triple-A Rochester): 0-0, 1.42 ERA, 6 G, 6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 SO, 1 HBP, 0.632 WHIP, .100 Opp. AVG

2021 analysis: How highly did the Nationals think of Sam Clay upon acquiring him last winter? Enough to give him a major league contract, even though he'd never spent a day in the majors after seven seasons in the Twins farm system. Like they did with Kyle Finnegan the previous year, the Nats believed the left-hander was big league-ready. And they put him in an opening day bullpen that was short on southpaws.

Clay was thrown right into the fire and mostly held his own for two months. In 19 appearances in April and May, he boasted a 2.87 ERA while holding opponents to a .682 OPS, though he wasn't often called upon in high-leverage situations.

Clay did get a chance to start pitching in more competitive spots beginning in June, and though there were some bright spots along the way, his overall performance began to sag. In 27 appearances from June 1-Aug. 6, he was stuck with an 8.10 ERA while opponents racked up an .893 OPS against him. That led to a brief demotion to Triple-A.

Three weeks later, Clay was back in D.C., but his outings the rest of the way were erratic. He wound up getting demoted again for the season's final week, a victim of the reduced September roster maximum, and finished out the year in Rochester.

2022 outlook: Clay had fallen off the radar map somewhat by season's end, but he remains on the 40-man roster, with options. And given the Nationals' lack of reliable bullpen arms, there's no doubt he's going to get another look this spring (whenever that actually takes place).

For Clay to earn a spot back on the big league roster, and then to remain there, he's going to have to show improvement and consistency in two critical departments: reducing walks and retiring left-handed batters.

Clay's walk rate (4.4 per nine innings) was quite high, though actually better than the 5.1 rate he posted throughout his minor league career. He was able to get away with it in the minors because of his ability to induce ground balls and keep the ball in the yard, but he was less successful at that in his first big league season.

Though his 60.1 percent groundball rate last year looked impressive on the surface, it actually was down from the remarkable 71.3 percent rate he owned in 2019 (best in the entire minor leagues). He had surrendered only six home runs in 405 1/3 career minor league innings with the Twins, but big league hitters took him deep four times in 45 innings. It may be too much to ask him to maintain his insane minor league rates, but fewer walks would help ensure he needs fewer ground balls in search of double plays and would ensure whatever home runs he allows aren't as damaging.

Clay's chances of future success also hinge on his ability to be highly successful against left-handed batters, who slashed .250/.330/.345 against him. Those are by no means poor numbers - and they were far better than right-handers' .333/.425/.461 slash line against him - but to be an effective lefty reliever in the majors, you have to hold left-handed hitters to even lower numbers.