Previewing tonight's Hall of Fame election reveal

It's been a rough week for baseball, unless you're of the opinion that bad publicity is better than no publicity. Regardless, the Astros' sign-stealing scandal - and the still-falling domino effects of it - has shown us some of the worst baseball has to offer.

Which makes today a good day, because we're going to get to experience some of the very best baseball has to offer. (Plus some controversy, because this sport simply isn't allowed to just celebrate the good things without having a little bit of cold water thrown on it.)

Yes, it's Hall of Fame election day. Shortly after 6 p.m. we'll find out which of the 32 players on this year's Baseball Writers' Association of America ballot received the necessary 75 percent support for enshrinement into Cooperstown. It's always a fascinating day, both for the nostalgia it raises, the celebration of the game's very best and the debate over who did and who didn't get in.

As always, I'll reveal my official ballot and explanation after the results are announced this evening. In the meantime, here are some key things to watch for with this year's election ...

baseballs-in-bin-sidebar.jpgWILL JETER JOIN RIVERA IN THE 100 PERCENT CLUB?
The longest (and some would say stupidest) barrier in Hall of Fame voting came crashing down last year when Mariano Rivera became the first player to be named on all 100 percent of ballots submitted by eligible BBWAA voters. You wouldn't think Rivera will be the only one to pull that off, and sure enough there's a really good chance he'll be joined this year by his longtime Yankees teammate. Every ballot that has been revealed so far - thanks as always to Ryan Thibodaux and his Hall of Fame Tracker for compiling all this - has included Jeter's name, and pity the voter who would have to explain why he or she didn't check the box next to his name. There were still 200 or so unrevealed ballots as of Monday night, so it's possible someone left him off. But with election a slam dunk, the only question now is whether Mr. November will go into the Hall as the second Mr. Perfect.

CAN WALKER GET OVER THE HUMP IN HIS FINAL YEAR?
The real drama tonight is going to involve Larry Walker, who over the last decade has made a long and slow climb toward serious contention for enshrinement. The slugging outfielder bottomed out at only 10.4 percent of the vote in 2014 but saw his total jump to 54.6 percent last year. And entering election day, he was well over the threshold around 83 percent. But beware: Nearly every player's total goes down once the previously unrevealed ballots are added, so Walker is in serious danger of falling below 75 percent. And because this is his 10th year on the ballot, this is his last chance. Everyone agrees this is going to be really close.

WILL ANYBODY ELSE GET IN?
The BBWAA has cleared the ballot logjam that had built up over time, electing a record 20 players over the last six years. But with Jeter the only obvious pick among the 18 newcomers on this year's ballot, this isn't expected to be a large class. Beyond Jeter and Walker, the players with the best chance of getting in tonight are three of the most controversial players of their era: Curt Schilling, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Bonds and Clemens, of course, are controversial for their connection to performance enhancing drugs, which has left the two all-time greats stuck below the 60 percent mark for some time. They might gain some ground this year, with new and younger voters more likely to elect them, but it would take a whole lot of changed minds to get all the way to 75 percent. Schilling, meanwhile, has done little to endear himself to writers (or the general public) with his offensive comments and tweets in recent years, but he has made steady (if slow) progress up the ladder, getting to 60.9 percent last year. He's got two more years of eligibility after this, so he doesn't face the urgency Walker does tonight.

WHO STARTS MAKING THE CLIMB?
Nobody else is going to threaten 75 percent tonight, but several players who have been on the ballot for a few years should see their support continue to grow and perhaps set the stage for election in another few years. The notable names here are Omar Vizquel (42.8 percent last year), Jeff Kent (18.1 percent), Scott Rolen (17.2 percent), Billy Wagner (16.7 percent) and Todd Helton (16.5 percent). If any is going to make it to Cooperstown some day, the time is now to start building some momentum.

WILL ANY OTHER FIRST-TIMERS STAY ON THE BALLOT?
It requires 75 percent of the vote to win election, but it requires only 5 percent of the vote to return to the ballot next year (except for those who have used up all 10 years of eligibility). You wouldn't think it would be difficult to get 5 percent, but as we've seen in recent years a lot of quality players don't ever get there and get dropped from the ballot after only one attempt. Who among this year's first-timers might at least reach the minimum number to return in 2021? Those with the best chance appear to be Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi and Cliff Lee. None is seen as a strong contender for election, but you can certainly argue each deserves to stay on the ballot a while longer.




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