Analyst bullish on DL Hall, but future role is a question

There is no doubt that the combination of an injury that limited him to seven starts last season and trouble at times in his career with control and command have dropped Orioles lefty pitching prospect DL Hall a bit on some top 100 prospects lists.

But he hasn't dropped on all of them, and on one list, he actually moved way up, even though the outlet feels he could end up pitching in the bullpen in the majors.

This is an interesting guy for publications to rank.

Before 2021, Baseball America ranked Hall No. 59 and he is now No. 52. The Athletic had him No. 49 heading into 2021 and he is now No. 81. Via ESPN, Hall was No. 99 pre-2021 and is now No. 94. He was No. 70 on the MLBPipeline.com pre-2021 list and they have not yet released a new list for 2022.

But on the FanGraphs.com top 100, the pitcher who threw limited innings last season before an injury shut him down moved from No. 83 before last season to No. 27. Big move up. And this is from an outlet that believes there is a good chance he winds up a reliever.

But in ranking him No. 27 when their new list came out a few days ago, FanGraphs wrote that, "Regardless of the specifics of his eventual role, Hall is going to be an impact big league arm, and probably very soon."

In fact, FanGraphs ranked just four pitchers ahead of Hall and one is his O's teammate, Grayson Rodriguez, at No. 3 overall.

But Hall, according to FanGraphs, has a potential comp of lefty Blake Snell if he remains a starter and Josh Hader in the bullpen. The first one was the 2018 American League Cy Young Award winner who has pitched to a combined ERA of 3.93 the last two seasons between Tampa Bay and San Diego. The second is a three-time All-Star reliever for the Brewers, who last year went 4-2 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.835 WHIP and 15.6 strikeout rate. Hader, of course, was an Orioles draft pick, in round 19 out of Baltimore-area Old Mill High School in 2012. He was traded on July 31, 2013 with L.J. Hoes and a 2014 competitive balance draft pick for pitcher Bud Norris, a key member of the 2014 O's American League East champion rotation.

If Hall turns into a talent on the level of Hader, a true big-time impact reliever, the Orioles would probably be delighted with that.

The No. 21 overall pick in round one of the 2017 draft from Valdosta, Ga., Hall was limited to 31 2/3 innings last season, going 2-0 with a 3.13 ERA at Double-A Bowie. He walked 16 (4.55 per nine) and fanned 56 (a whopping 15.92 per nine), which included fanning 46 percent of the lefty batters he faced. His WHIP was 1.01. For his minor league career, over 217 innings, Hall has an ERA of 2.99 with a 5.1 walk rate and 11.8 strikeout rate.

I asked FanGraphs' lead prospect analyst, Eric Longenhagen, why he feels Hall may end up in a bullpen role.

"The strike-throwing (issues). His arm action is quite long," Longenhagen said. "Definitely the injury adds to the risk that was already present that he moves to the bullpen. We care at least a little bit, that all things being equal, we'd rather someone start rather than relieve. But the idea that relievers are not valuable is false."

The Orioles added Hall to their 40-man roster in November and he is expected to be a full-go this season after being shut down last year due to a stress reaction in his left elbow that did not result in a surgery. He pitched in the All-Star Futures Game in 2019.

Hall's talent has not been denied by anyone and his impact, said Longenhagen, could be vast for the Orioles, no matter the future role.

"Teams who have World Series aspirations and that are real contenders, go seventh, eighth, ninth inning with guys throwing 96 plus," he said. "You can't have soft-tossers coming in high-leverage relief situations and hope to beat the Dodgers in September and October.

"So knowing full well that DL Hall is probably a reliever, we just value him where we do because he has elite stuff. And there is a chance that he starts and becomes, you know, Blake Snell or whatever. And the ceiling is just Hader or something close to that."

When I wrote this profile of Hall on opening day of the 2021 minor league season, Buck Britton, who was about to manage Hall at Bowie, said Hall had had a great spring, showing both maturity and more life and velocity on his fastball. He was then throwing an easy 96, 97 mph and touching 100 mph. He averaged 97 mph last season in his seven outings, according to various outlets.

"This kid has really matured," said Britton, who took Bowie to Double-A league championship series in 2019 and 2021, at that time. "That is the biggest thing that jumps off the page for me. And I'm not talking about being a young kid and growing up. Just as a pitcher. It used to be, 'Here is my fireball.' Breaking ball was inconsistent, changeup was just being developed last time I saw him. This guy came into camp with a different mindset. And he looks - knock on wood here - this guy looks really good.

"I was really impressed with the kid that showed up at camp. Even from the alternate camp (in 2020). This guy came in with another gear and he looked fantastic in spring training. Really excited to see him pitch this year."

Baseball America puts a 70 grade on Hall's fastball, while MLBPipeline.com rated it 65 and FanGraphs at 60. My sense is some outlets have yet to consistently see the Hall that can touch 100 mph or have not seen it enough in games yet. His curveball got a 60 grade from FanGraphs and his slider got a 60 from Baseball America, while FanGraphs put a 60 on his changeup.

The stuff is just very, very good. Two outlets - MLBPipeline.com and Baseball America - graded the command a touch below average at 45 and FanGraphs was at 40.

As a member of the 40-man roster, Hall cannot workout starting today with the other players at O's minor league camp, which now officially begins in Sarasota. But when he does take the mound, whenever that is, he'll be out to prove that is healthy after last season. If he is, his big talent and stuff could take him far - no matter what inning or innings he pitches for the Orioles.