Keith Law on O's pick and a take on Austin Martin (with video)

While pointing out that the Orioles could go underslot with their No. 2 draft pick to go over at No. 30 and/or No. 39, The Athletic's Keith Law still has the club taking Vanderbilt's Austin Martin with its first pick.

The draft begins at 7 p.m. on Wednesday night with coverage on both ESPN and MLB Network. That night, the first round features picks No. 1 through No. 29 and then the competitive balance round with selections Nos. 30 through 37. So the O's will have two picks Wednesday. Draft coverage resumes Thursday at 5 p.m. with rounds two through five.

I recently interviewed Law via Zoom and you can watch the video in full at the end of this entry. Law ranks Martin as the No. 1 player in the draft and has him going to the Orioles in his June 3 mock draft.

He still expects Detroit to select Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson with the top pick. Law said it is unlikely that changes. But he adds one seeming longshot possibility.

"They could (bypass Torkelson) if they think Martin is a better player," Law said. "I actually do and I know some scouts that agree Martin is a somewhat better prospect than Torkelson. It's not a huge difference. It's just a matter of opinion. But I think Martin is the better athlete. He's going to play a skill position. He's going to add some value on defense and he's got elite bat speed. He's got a pretty good combination of skills."

In his 2019 sophomore season, Martin played on the Vanderbilt team that won the College World Series. The righty batter hit .392/.486/.604 with 19 doubles, four triples and 10 homers. He led the nation with 87 runs and added 18 stolen bases. In Southeast Conference games, he hit .424 with a .500 OBP.

This season, before baseball's shutdown in March, he played in 16 games. Martin hit .377/.507/.660 with three homers and 11 RBIs. In 69 plate appearances, he walked 10 times with just two strikeouts. He struck out in just 82 of 665 career plate appearances (with 85 walks) for a 12.3 percent strikeout rate.

"There is a little more uncertainty about Martin, but it's more about position than bat," said Law. "He has incredible bat speed and he's posted very strong exit velocities. He seldom strikes out. And he has elite contact rates, much better than Torkelson. Torkelson's contact rates are fine for a big power hitter, but Martin is very difficult to strike out. He rarely swings and misses and he has really advanced plate discipline.

"My expectation is he's going to hit for high averages with very strong on-base percentages. I think he's going to come into above average power, too. If you hit the ball that hard, that consistently and you have the swing path, you have some loft in your swing, you're going to come into power. He's shown some power already. Martin might be a 20 to 25 home run hitter. But we've seen guys like Alex Bregman, who weren't supposed to be 30-plus homer hitters, get a little stronger, tweak their swings just very, very slightly and get to 30-homer power. Martin could be that kind of player. I wouldn't project that right now, I wouldn't bank on him getting to that kind of power. But I think it's in his skillset, because of all the other things he does well."

If Detroit does take Torkelson, they'll get a player with plus-plus power that hit 25 homers as a freshman, 23 as a sophomore and six in 17 games this year. He would become the first college first baseman to ever go 1/1 in the draft.

That would leave with the Orioles with an opportunity to take the player rated as the best pure hitter in the draft in Martin or the one rated the best pitcher in Texas A&M left-hander Asa Lacy. The underslot/overslot option to try and maximize talent is also an option, although it comes with more potential risk.

Law believes the Orioles have already made a big decision in that regard.

"My understanding - this is not from the Orioles, but other teams - is they don't want a pitcher, not at pick two," he said. "They would be very open to taking pitching later. But they believe pitching is just too risky that high in the draft. And there is the opportunity when you pick second to get Martin or Torkelson. There is also the opportunity of them doing an underslot deal.

"Mike Elias was the scouting director for Houston for a number of years. Twice he picked first overall and took a pitcher (Mark Appel and Brady Aiken) and neither one of them worked out. His success in the first round was almost exclusively with position players, and my understanding is that is Elias' strong preference for the first round pick.

"Because the Orioles pick again twice with the first pick of the competitive balance round (No. 30) and the second pick of the second round (No. 39), they could easily just go position player with that first pick and come back and take two pitchers with the next two picks. And I don't think they'd be losing very much. Yes, Asa Lacy is the best pitcher on the board, but they are just riskier. Even the best ones with the best deliveries and track records, they still get hurt. I understand the Orioles' preference here. And I would, in their shoes, also take one of those two position players rather than take Asa Lacy, who I do think is very, very good."

Here is the entire interview with Law.