Opposite dugout: Final series vs. O's stands between Yankees and wild card game

yankees-logo.jpgManager: Joe Girardi (8th season)

Record: 87-72

Last 10 games: 5-5

Who to watch: RF Carlos Beltran (.273/.333/.470 with 19 HR, 66 RBIs), SS Didi Gregorius (.263 with 54 RBIs), CF Jacoby Ellsbury (.261 with 33 RBIs), 1B Greg Bird (.255 with 11 HR, 30 RBIs), RHP Michael Pineda (12-9, 4.24 ERA), RHP Dellin Betances (29 holds, 1.41 ERA), LHP Andrew Miller (36 saves, 1.91 ERA)

Season series vs. Orioles: 8-7

Pitching probables:

Oct. 2: RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Wei-Yin Chen, 7:05 p.m., MASN
Oct. 3: RHP Adam Warren vs. RHP Chris Tillman, 7:05 p.m., MASN
Oct. 4: RHP Michael Pineda vs. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez, 3:05 p.m., MASN

Inside the Yankees:

It's been a while since the Yankees have been to Camden Yards - June 12-14, to be exact - and things have changed considerably for both teams. Everyone who expected the Yankees to wilt in the summer heat was surprised that they didn't, and though New York has weathered some injuries that could have wrecked the 2015 season, the Bronx Bombers have persevered.

As a result, they're in line to host the win-or-go-home wild card game - not exactly the kind of production the demanding fans in Gotham expect, but they're still in the postseason. They'll use the final weekend of the regular season to line up their starting rotation for the postseason - starting with the wild card game - and get a little rest for some regulars and playing time for some reserves. So don't be surprised if the Yankees trot out a lineup that looks less than imposing this weekend. It's all part of the master plan, and since they've clinched a spot in the playoffs, they're allowed to look past the Orioles.

The only time this month the Yankees have won three in a row was from Sept. 1-4. Since then, they have won back-to-back games a few times but not seen any sustained success. That's not a good prescription heading into the postseason, and the Yankees want to get their offense in gear so they don't exit the playoffs with a resounding thud.

The Yankees offer some offense, ranking second in the American League in runs scored (755), tied with the Orioles for third in home runs (212) and third in slugging percentage (.423). That helps compensate for a pitching staff that is middle of the road in most categories.

Right fielder Carlos Beltran was productive in September, hitting five homers and driving in 17 runs. Shortstop Didi Gregorius isn't making people forget about Derek Jeter, but he's batted .291 after the All-Star break. Designated hitter Alex Rodriguez has fallen off in the second half with a .219 average, but still has produced 33 homers and driven in 86 runs in a renaissance season. First baseman Greg Bird's 11 homers have helped compensate for the loss of slugger Mark Teixeira to a season-ending wrist injury.

The Orioles will get their first look at rookie Luis Severino in Friday night's series opener. The prized pitching prospect has performed well since being recalled from Triple-A, and threw six shutout innings at Atlanta on Sept. 28. He's 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last three starts and 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA on the road. The 21-year-old limits foes to a .233/.310/.388 slash line and is tough on righties, who hit him at a .202/.265/.372 clip. Severino's biggest problem has been the first inning, when opponents slash .308/.372/.615 against him. So the Orioles may employ an aggressive approach early on.

In his last start, righty Adam Warren allowed a run on three hits in six innings against the White Sox, notching his first victory since July 25. He's bounced between the bullpen and rotation for the Yankees this year, and found success as a swingman, posting a 6-6 record and 3.66 ERA as a starter. The Orioles have seen a lot of Warren over the years; in his career, he's 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA in 13 games (six starts) against Baltimore, and 1-2 with a 6.32 ERA in eight games (one start) at Camden Yards. Foes slash .238/.303/.352 off Warren, who holds opponents to a .255 mark with runners in scoring position. He's 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA against the Orioles this year with no record and a 5.79 ERA at Camden Yards.

Sunday's regular season finale - like all games in the majors this year - starts at 3:05 p.m. so that baseball can take advantage of any close races and not have one team clinch while another watches. That gives righty Michael Pineda more time to contemplate his fifth start this season against the Orioles, against whom he is 2-1 with a 5.70 ERA in 2015. But one of those starts was a 16-strikeout gem, so you have to take the bad with the good. Pineda hasn't pitched well in the second half, going 3-4 with a 5.51 ERA, including getting bombed for seven runs in six innings by Boston in his last start on Sept. 26. Overall, opponents have a .276/.300/.451 slash line against him, including a .284/.303/.466 mark by right-handed batters. He's had trouble with the home run ball, coughing up 21 blasts in 157 innings pitched. Get runners on and you have a good chance of scoring, since Pineda allows a .309 average with runners on and a .317 mark with runners in scoring position.

New York's back end of the bullpen is very tough, with hard-throwing righty Dellin Betances setting up for southpaw closer Andrew Miller. Betances has a 1.34 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 125 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings. He can be stretched out to two innings, and manager Joe Girardi will use him to get critical outs even if they're not in the eighth inning. Miller has flourished in his first year as a closer, notching 36 saves in 38 tries and posting an 0.87 WHIP and 1.97 ERA. Having the duo shortens games and lessens the need for starters to go deep.




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