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One of the biggest decisions teams make for their minor leaguers is when to promote players to higher levels.
When is the time right? What if the player doesn't succeed at that level? How fast should prospects move through the system?
O's president Andy MacPhail worked with David Stockstill when he headed up the O's farm system and now works with his brother, John, who is the current director of player development.
The O's may be going through some subtle changes in philosophy in how fast they promote players on the farm.
"Yeah, I think John is probably a little more aggressive than Dave was. But at the end of the day, it's an individual thing," MacPhail said.
"You need to look at the entire package. What their amateur career was. What level they've played at, how they've progressed. A judgement as to whether they can handle the next level and is there a need at the next level? Or are they going to move up so they can let someone else play that is a prospect where they were. There are a lot of variables."
Do the O's have to now look to promote minor league players faster because of the losing at the Major League level?
"No. Those decisions should be independent of that. For example, last year there was a period where maybe Brandon Waring could have played at Double-A, but Josh Bell was there. The most important thing is to get the repetitions and it's less important whether that's at Frederick or Bowie. And then when Bell moves on, Waring moves up.
"John is a believer where, if he feels like a player is going to play at the next level the next year and play the majority of the year there, he likes to expose some players to that level a little bit the year before.
"I think Dave was more, let them have a full year under their belt and amass some numbers. I'm not sure either one of those is wrong. I don't know if I agree or disagree with either one. There is merit to both ways."
There are examples of some players moving more quickly from level to level on the farm this year. Consider, outfielder Matt Angle.
A seventh-round pick out of Ohio State in 2007, Angle played 123 games at Frederick last year and played eight games late in the season at Bowie.
He suffered a broken hamate bone in his right hand late in Major League spring training this March and began the regular season injured, but then joined Bowie on May 13th. After hitting .383 in just 14 games with the Baysox, he was promoted to Triple-A on May 29.
"Matt (Angle) was executing the fundamentals, moving runners over, he could pinch run, pinch hit, play defense in the outfield. He doesn't need to be at the Double-A level. He did everything he needed to do; now he's going to get pushed at the Triple-A level," John Stockstill said.
"We saw him in spring training. You start with what you already know about the player. He was already doing some things that you have to do to play in the big leagues during Major League spring training.
"It's not about hitting .300. He could execute the fundamentals at the level where he is, so we challenge him and move him on up. A lot of guys can hit .360, but they can't bunt or hit and run and steal and do things the Major League club needs them to.
"So they need to stay where they are until they learn to take pitches, put the bat on the ball. Game execution is primary to movement.
"Every level brings a different level of competition. When you go to Triple-A you can have a group of 34-year-old hitters that are protecting your (younger) hitters that are paid to sit on one mistake.
"You have pitchers that are paid to get young hitters out. They may not be able to do it in the Majors, but they can get the 22 or 24-year-old that just got to Triple-A. You have a few of those at Double-A; you have a bunch of those at Triple-A.
"So every time you move a level, he (a player like Angle) has to graduate to another level of expertise that is being paid to specifically find his holes.
"In general, people from the scouting side of the game have a philosophy: you simply need to challenge them and see. There are times you move people up and that's how you find out what level the player is."
Stockstill emphasizes that, in the end, it all comes back to the Major Leagues. Everything a club does on the farm is geared toward prepping players to play there.
"There is really one level - the Major League level. Everyone wants to play at the highest level possible, but that doesn't mean they are being developed better at that level than another level.
"When I talk to young kids about college, I tell them go where you will play. If a club were lucky enough to have nine frontline shortstops, you would need them at different places in order to get playing time, developmental playing time. They have to have a place to play.
"You want numerous good players at numerous positions. When you get to that point, you think you have a pretty good farm system. The danger with any position is hey we've got nine clubs and only have one guy at this position. You are hoping to have a problem finding them a place to play. That means you have depth in your system."
I asked Stockstill what factors like age and maturity play in deciding when to promote players.
"Each player will handle things differently. I'm more concerned with how the player will be handled. If we send a guy up, are you afraid if we have to send him back down, it will do him harm. Not if we do our job.
"I'd rather challenge the player and if he doesn't succeed there, we will handle him properly to get him refocused and ready to get back on an upward plane. That's the job.
"Once they reach a certain level and need to be challenged, we are going to do that. I told a player the other day, I don't care if you hit .200. Next year, you'll hit .240 or .280. We are looking at you moving forward."
Steve,
This stuff is really great reading. Obviously, as a fan of the minors, ever line generates the thought of a specific player or situation I have seen over the last few years. Angle represents the very best example of how a good young player can quickly move through the minors and but himself on the verge of reaching the big show. I'm sitting on the edge of my deat waiting for the next installment. Outstanding work.
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Hey thanks for the nice comments. - Steve.
Quality read as always Steve. My one question for you is do you ever ask them who they think will be major leaguers? It doesn't seem like we have many future major league starters in our minor league system at the moment. Now, I know we graduated a lot last season but it seems like that was all we had as we only have Britton, Bell, and maybe 2-3 others that have a shot at being major league starters. I would love to be wrong so please tell me my opinion on the lack of legitimate major league candidates is wrong and let me know who all has a real shot at sticking.
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It is just so hard to predict Major Lg players at lower levels, but I sure like Avery and Hoes at Frederick. - Steve.
angle has a long way to go before he is mlb ready,,i wouldn't be surprised if he were in aaa the next two years. I think primarily, he needs to get stronger
Hey Steve,
I am loving what you have been doing the past few days, it is great for us to read and great for the organization.
I have a request, if possible, is there any chance you could do a piece dedicated solely to the Dominican teams we have? Almost none of the fans know anything about them at all. I know recently two guys (whose names escape me) had their contracts bought and are playing somewhere for the Os.
I was wondering: a) whose on the teams/ are there players to watch and (b) what caliber of players typically come from these types of teams?
If you can do it great, if not I will still visit your blog and bother you with my posts regardless.
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It is definitely something worth doing and I will look into some stories or at least a story or two on the players in the Dom Summer Lg. - Steve.
Watching the AAA All Star game and boy Jay Gibbons got real small. Don't know if Britton pitched or not, joined the game late.
what a marvelous series. Many thanks
Steve-
So, looking into the minor leagues, who are our top 10 prospects at this point?
Britton, is #1. I have seen reports like the one you posted, then others that say he is a can't miss kid, and might be the best of O's young arms.
Bell.
This 3B that they came to terms with.
Hoes and Avery.
Klein and Machado once they sign.
Hobgood.
Where do Dowdy and Cooney fall into place?
It seems that the O's have shifted from being starter heavy, to now having most of them being position players and relief arms.
I actually like it. Obviously, to get better, faster, they need to go after an impact bat. No more mid level, but a legit #4 monster. They have to counter the A-Rods, Ortizs, Youklis, Longoria, etc.
That is going to cost some youngsters.
I find it interesting who people think is there now.
Has Mahoney jumped up the list? Angle? What about Townsend and Mummey? These guys appear to be solid hitters.
Listening to the 1057 today and hearing that some think Mummey actually could be promoted to Frederick in August, because the tools he has are so good already.
THATS impressive.
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I have never done my own top ten, but might at the end of this year. - Steve.
Steve,
Looks like we got a scathing review as an organization (although MacPhail got somewhat of an endorsement) on this PressBox article that talked to 2 scouts and former big league exec Joe Klein.
It was posted over on OH but you can see the full article here: http://www.pressboxonline.com/story.cfm?id=6429
Some excerpts...
"They have next to nothing at any level," said Scout No. 1. "The key to successful drafting isn't just to cherry-pick one of the top-five guys with your first pick, which they've done, but to get depth from the later rounds. Their drafting has been bottom of the barrel, an absolute disaster."
Because the Orioles haven't identified and drafted the right later-round talent in recent years, the system lacks "athletes who can play every day in the big leagues, and that includes some of their first-rounders too, guys like [Frederick third baseman Billy] Rowell and [Norfolk first baseman Brandon] Snyder," Scout No. 1 said. Frederick centerfielder Xavier Avery is one of very few exceptions, he added.
The Red Sox, Yankees and Rays all sign more players each year than the Orioles, picking "overslot" players in later rounds who are wooed by bonus money higher-round selections normally cadge. But when they do pony up cash for a later-round pick, the O's too often pick players who are hurt, such as Cameron Coffey, a left-handed pitcher who had undergone Tommy John surgery before being drafted last year.
"Or they get guys who just can't play, like the catcher [Michael Ohlman, an 11th-round pick in 2009 who, like Coffey, signed a $1 million bonus] at Delmarva who doesn't look like he can hit, catch or throw," said Scout No. 1. "It's baffling."
...Klein, former general manager of three American League clubs, said the Orioles might not have enough scouting staff to keep up with the AL East. The other teams in the division have more scouts.
"Why can a team like the Yankees pull up someone like [Francisco] Cervelli when Jorge Posada got hurt?" said Klein, now executive director of the independent Atlantic League. "It's because they have people in more places. One guy can't be everywhere."
He suggests MacPhail propose an increase in scouting staff to ownership to speed up the rebuilding process.
Once in the system, the Orioles have long had a tendency to overvalue their prospects, added Scout No. 2. This, too, is a scouting issue.
"You have to have a realistic idea of what your guys can do for you," Scout No. 2 said. "Otherwise, you don't know which holes you'll have to fill from outside."
...Scout No. 1 isn't convinced, having seen several of the O's farm teams recently. "There's a real question of effort," he said. "You can see it in the body language. They play just hard enough in Oriole-land."
One area where the team has taken few fliers is Latin America, which accounts for nearly one in three major league players and many of its most exciting stars.
Players in countries such as the Dominican Republic and Venezuela offer non-big market teams a chance to comb the bushes for the next young star at a price almost always less than a first-round draft pick. Minnesota, Tampa and Toronto have been very active in the region; the Orioles have not. The team's entry in the Dominican Summer League usually features a winning percentage similar to that of the Orioles'. The last player of note the O's developed out of Latin America was Armando Benitez.
"The Orioles have little or no presence internationally," said Scout No. 1. "It's unfortunate because it's going to be tough for this team to get the big bat it needs unless it gets lucky internationally."
(Obviously with the international maybe we've started to turn the corner after last week)
The panel gives MacPhail high marks for fleecing Seattle for Sherrill, Adam Jones and Chris Tillman in the Erik Bedard deal, and for getting at least some return from Houston for Miguel Tejada.
"Andy's done well with trades," Scout No. 1 said.
Swaps involving Ramon Hernandez and Aubrey Huff garnered little more than salary relief, however, something that has become painfully obvious as the team has struggled to generate power this year. MacPhail's affinity for players he drafted or signed while with the Cubs -- Rich Hill, Lou Montanez, Scott Moore -- seems desperate, though Pie might be for real and Corey Patterson has been a decent stopgap this year.
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And then after mostly negativity the article throws a curveball...
Regardless, the Orioles made the right decision to hire MacPhail, and they should stick with him until The Plan gets a fair chance to succeed.
"Everything in baseball is cyclical, and the Orioles will one day again be good," Klein said. "Andy's a solid guy. We all understand when we take a job what the lines of authority are. Andy knows he can work within those lines. The results haven't been kind to him, but that doesn't mean he isn't a good executive."
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That last part really hints at somebody still pulling the strings from the author's standpoints. It certainly contradicts MacPhail's words when he was hired about autonomy. "Lines of Authority."
Wonderful insight into player development! I live in Virginia Beach and I go to as many games as possible to see the O's AAA team, The Norfolk Tides. Its great to see first hand which player seems to be developing the most and its always exciting to see that player get promoted. Thanks Steve for the great series of posts!
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Appreciate that, Richard. - Steve.
Steve,
Do you know what is going on with MIchael Ohlman? He hasn't played since July 7th.
Another insightful article Steve.
One poster suggested you do one on the O's Dominican League teams. Maybe that'll be a chance for a road trip! If you go, I'll gladly carry your bags.
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That would be an interesting road trip. I'm up for it. - Steve.
Steve- I have commented to you before, that your work on the minor leagues was
exceptional ( not that your other work wasn't top notch ), but this series
might be your best of them all. It's really interesting to me that John
Stockstill's philosophy on promoting players more quickly, is so different
from his brother's approach. When the O's announced that the brothers had
swapped positions, I think that most fans, including me, greeted the
announcement with a yawn. I didn't realize that John moved players more
quickly then Dave, if he thought that the player was ready. One of my
complaints was, that I didn't feel that certain prospects were moving
quickly enough, thru the minor league system. I had this theory, that since
we had previosly rushed players to the big league club, before they were
ready, that now the O's were being overly protective, before moving the
prospects up. I really like what he has done with Matt Angle. I've commented to
you before, that he reminds me of Jacoby Ellsbury ( great speed, great base
running instincts, fundamentally sound, terrific defensive center fielder,and
good contact hitter ). Hopefully, John will keep the pipeline moving on a
better pace then Dave did. Again Steve, thanks for your great work on this
series. Maybe, someday MASN will give you a television show on Minor League
Baseball in general, and the O's in particular (I think there would be a lot
of viewer interest ).
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Appreciate it Dan. Nice to know there are fans like yourself that really care about the minors and reports like this. - Steve.