Testing the Always bet against Cakes theory

Yes, I made it back from Miami to DC before the blizzard hit. I wanted to get out and kiss the ground after the pilot made his smooth landing on one of America's shortest runways at Reagan National Airport yesterday.

I celebrated by stuffing my face with an Auntie Anne's pretzel in the Reagan terminal and considered downing a 21 oz. Miller Lite before the trek home, but quickly realized that catching a buzz and then driving in whiteout conditions was not a great idea.

Time to see if I can cash in on the Super Bowl by flipping the script on my usual betting patterns. It's long overdue. Now I'm going to fade my own pick.

All week long, I have been crazy about taking the Saints and the 5 points, so now it's become crystal clear to me - I have to take Indianapolis and lay the 5 spot.

Peyton-Manning_Jim-Caldwell.jpg

Why wouldn't I lay less than a touchdown with the team being led by one of the greatest QB's in NFL history, in Peyton Manning?

Why wouldn't I bet on the team that's been on the big stage and won it before, with Indy beating up on the Bears in Super Bowl 41?

Why wouldn't I bet on the team that won the Super Bowl on the same field in Miami just three seasons ago?

By the way, could that stadium have had more names in its short existence? It opened in 1987 as Joe Robbie Stadium and kept that name until 1996, when it was renamed Pro Player Park; then it was re-renamed Pro Player Stadium until 2005, when it changed to Dolphins Stadium from 2005-2006; then it went to Dolphin Stadium from 2006-2009; then Landshark Stadium bought naming rights from 2009 to early 2010, and this Sunday, the game will be played in Sun Life Stadium. Did you follow all of that?

Trust me, I know it's confusing, just like the NFL deeming Super Bowl 44 as being held in "South Florida," instead of Miami. Is the game happening in Miami, or Fort Lauderdale? Which is it? If somebody knows, please fill me in.

In any case, picking the Colts just feels like more of a sure thing. Why would I roll the dice on the Saints, who are making their first Super Bowl appearance after 43 seasons of futility? Peyton Manning has been touched by the football gods, and it just seems that he is destined to grab his second Super Bowl ring and enhance his Hall of Fame resume. Plus, you have to love the Manning bloodlines. Did Drew Brees' dad play in the NFL? I don't think so. Did Drew Brees' brother win a Super Bowl and cash in with a $100 million contract? Pretty sure he didn't.

Take the Colts, lay the five, and celebrate along with Peyton Manning and company as he hoists his second Lombardi Trophy tomorrow night. I'll be rooting for the Saints, but deep down, I know the Colts will win this one.

Final score prediction - Colts 31 Saints 21.