MASNsports.com is your online home for the latest Orioles and Nationals news, features, and commentary. And now, you can connect with MASN on every digital level. From web and social media to our new mobile alert service, MASN has got all the bases covered.
Get the latest breaking news direct to your phone with our free mobile texting service. Text "MASN" to 29292, or click the join button below!
The two plays Adam Dunn made - or didn't make - in the Nationals' 1-0 loss to the Phillies seem to be the ones everyone is talking about today. And with good reason; had Dunn gotten a better jump, or had better range, Raul Ibanez's go-ahead double probably would have been a groundout to first. Ian Desmond's throwing error, which bounced off the top of Dunn's glove, didn't cost the Nationals any runs. But that's another play that could have been made.
The Nationals have made no secret of the fact that Dunn's defense is the main thing they're still evaluating when deciding whether to give the 30-year-old a contract extension. The price, which has been rumored to be around $40 million for three years, is affordable for the National League's No. 2 home run hitter. Dunn wants to stay, and franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman has voiced his support for Dunn on several occasions. The question, as always, is that defense.
To Dunn's credit, he's improved markedly at first base this season, becoming a slightly below-average fielder instead of an anemic one. His UZR this season is 0.8 runs below average at first; it was 14.8 runs below average last year. Will he continue to improve defensively? Perhaps. Will the Nationals commit $40 million to find out? That's another issue entirely.
Sources close to the team have said the Nationals would have interest in Rays first baseman Carlos Pena, who is a free agent after the season. The 32-year-old is having his worst season with the Rays, with a .774 OPS, but was at .893 last year and traditionally has an on-base percentage that's more than 100 points above his batting average. What's more, Pena is seen as a more reliable fielder; he's got an -0.1 UZR this year and was at -4.6 last year, but had posted positive UZR numbers in four of the previous five seasons. He's also a Scott Boras player, and the Nationals have had plenty of successful dealings with Boras lately.
Pena could be a natural replacement for Dunn if the Nationals let him walk, but general manager Mike Rizzo has said the team's first preference is to resign Dunn. That issue, at this point, primarily resides on Dunn's defense. There's not much else for him to prove.
The Phillies have been in two straight World Series with Ryan Howard at first base. And he's no more adept with the glove than Dunn.
The defense needs to be improved, but they should be able to carry a 40 HR hitting sub-par 1B.
--------------------
I'd disagree with you there. He's been worse than Dunn this year, but not typically. There are obviously plenty of other reasons why that team has been in two straight World Series, too.
Ben
Exactly -- Leave Dunn alone, as the Phillies have done with Howard. And then work to fix the other problems:
* No second baseman
* Shortstop can't field (yet, at least)
* Starting pitching can't go past the sixth inning (and by the way, if they expect to go with Stras, Zim and Maya as 1-2-3 next year, best of luck to the bullpen. All three are unlikely to have built up the arm strength to hit 180 innings or more; Randy St. Claire used to talk about that problem with young, inexperienced pitchers...)
* Uncertain outfield situation; is Morgan the CF? Bernadina? Is The Hammer starting to age prematurely? Is Morse just a part-time player?
* Lack of set-up man in the bullpen; Clippard ain't it, obviously.
Seems to me that Dunn's sub-par defense is the least of their worries.
Ryan Howard made 33 errors total in 2008 and 2009. That's a lot of errors for a first baseman. Dunn this year has made seven.
Hey Ben. Patrick from Federal Baseball. Just thought it was interesting in light of what you're discussing that Mr. Rizzo had this to say about Dunn the other day on XM:
Mike Rizzo: "I think he's a work in progress...I think he's made strides to become a better defender. He's certainly not at the place defensively that he wants to be or I would like him to be."
Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Have a hard time blaming Dunn for Desi's throwing error last night though, he's 6'6'' and had his glove fully extended and it still got over him...should he have come off the bag and made sure to get it, maybe.
Its why they went after Texiera with everything they had ... maybe if Rizzo had been the GM he would be a Nat? Something to ponder? In any case Texiera brought reasonable youth, a golden glove and a great bat in the heart of the lineup.
They really don't have anyone like that in the minors right now. Both Tyler Moore and Chris Marerro look inferior defensively. Justin Bloxom looks better both from the fielding, plus switch hitting stand point. He does seem to be able to hit. But he is a ways off.
Still think they should consider putting Marerro at first and Dunn in left field at some point soon after
September 1st. Just to see. But, of course with Mr. "respect the game and veterans" in charge we
wouldn't see enough appearances to get a good feel. Still wondering why you "respect veterans" who
are hitting sub-Mendoza and their fielding isn't anything great? Is Willie Harris coming back? I would
be very surprised if he did. Is Wil Nieves. Given a choice between a pushing 40 IRod and Nieves I think
anyone would take Ivan Rodriguez hands down?
On a team that is going to end up in last place in the NL East. Which could conceivably lose 100 games if Riggleman were allowed to continue on his way? What purpose does that serve? If anything it seems
like it would hurt Rizzo's ability to completely analyze his roster in order to determine what moves would
make the most sense in the offseason? If its about winning and the current roster just isn't getting it done? So, doesn't it make sense to give Rizzo and team the best chance to analyze what assets they have against major league competition before going out on the free agent market?
---------------------------
No chance you'll see Marrero playing every day up here after Sept. 1 and Dunn in left, for many reasons (starting the clock on Marrero, September stats being unreliable, Riggleman wanting to keep veterans involved, need to see other outfielders, etc.). Just no chance.
But yes, all of these things illustrate why Teixeira is such a rare commodity; a telegenic first baseman in his prime, who switch-hits and plays good defense, and has regional ties to boot. You see why the Nationals were willing to pay for him, even if he didn't want to come here because he wanted to play for a winner right away.
Ben
Three months ago, Dunn wouldn't have laid a glove on that ball. Now, he got to it, but didn't squeeze it. Next year, when he's sees another ball like that one, he catches it. He's never going to have much range, but I think the improvement in reaction time and fundamental play is significant from April. I really hope they don't pay for Pena's reputation only o fin out that he isn't the player he used to be as a result of age or injuries (a huge plus in Dunn's favor is his extraordinary record of health).
----------------------------
It'll be interesting to see what both players get, if they hit the open market. They are the two youngest first basemen among the big bats on the market this year, but they both have some issues. And you make a good point about Dunn's health; it's something that's taken for granted. Riggleman said a week or two ago that Dunn, like Zimmerman, has been playing through some injuries. He doesn't get credit for that because you never know about it.
Ben
* No second baseman: Espinosa + Kennedy : fixed?
* Shortstop can't field (yet, at least): Desmond + Espinosa (better fielder) + Gonzalez : fixed?
* Starting pitching can't go past the sixth inning (and by the way, if they expect to go with Stras, Zim and Maya as 1-2-3 next year, best of luck to the bullpen. All three are unlikely to have built up the arm strength to hit 180 innings or more; Randy St. Claire used to talk about that problem with young, inexperienced pitchers...) : Too true. Hopefully JZimm and Maya get to a point where they can remedy this. Maya is not young and is experienced. JZimm not so much he and Stras will still be learning the ropes. Have to assume that Livan will be back and he has been very consistent this year. But next year? Perhaps they go out and get Cliff Lee? That might just fix it all.
* Uncertain outfield situation; is Morgan the CF? Bernadina? Is The Hammer starting to age prematurely? Is Morse just a part-time player? Hammer has suffered injuries to both his back and
knees in the past. He used to be a catcher and wasn't too bad at it. Have to assume that is why he was
moved to the outfield. Yes, he probably has now reached the point where he should play first base or
DH. They will likely go out and again attempt to address the CF situation through free agency. Its why I think right field might not get addressed. Can Morse play right field? He has really just started playing there? Can he play left field? Probably. He sure looked good at first base the other night? Bernadina, Morgan and Maxwell may all end up part-time players if they don't hit well enough to play centerfield which is where all three appear to belong?
* Lack of set-up man in the bullpen; Clippard ain't it, obviously. Clippard was supposed to be middle to long relief because he is good against left-handed hitters. He ended up doing the setup job
when Bruney couldn't. That was a Riggleman move. Burnett can set up or close. Storen can set up or close. Peralta can set up or close. Slaten looked good enough from the left side. They also still have Severino. Josh Wilkie, Chuck James and yes Jason Bergmann have looked good as
relievers. I don't think this will be a problem?
I've said it on this blog a number of occasions -- the big thing the Nationals have to be worried about with Dunn when deciding whether to sign him to an extension is his defense. For the duration of a three or four year deal, I have no reservations about his ability to mash and get on base. It's the defense that I'd be worried about -- just look at his WAR numbers in his big league career. A player who hits 40 homers a year should not be struggling to put up a 2.0 WAR for most of his big league career. But because he's been an atrocious defender for much of his career, it brings his value way down. Last year, he was a 1.2 WAR with a .928 OPS. That's incredibly difficult to pull off.
This year, the advanced defensive metrics have been kind to Dunn, who says he's worked extensively on his defense at first base. He's a 3.4 WAR because of it. The Nationals have to figure out if the advanced metrics for Dunn over at first base are a fluke this year (one-year fluctuations in UZR do happen), or if Dunn really is a decent defensive first baseman.
But here's the catch -- since they've already decided to not trade the big man, they almost are forced to put on a full-court press to re-sign Dunn. Mike Rizzo needed to figure out if Dunn is a decent first baseman two months ago -- not now. Because if they do indeed decide Dunn is a crappy first baseman and let him walk for nothing but draft picks (and they only get draft picks if they offer arbitration and he declines), that's a big misstep by Rizzo. He had a chance to deal Dunn for a good haul and supplement the Nationals' farm system, but he declined to trade him.
Now, I'm not saying that Rizzo HAS to re-sign Dunn -- if Rizzo doesn't feel like the value is there to re-sign Dunn, don't compound the mistake of not trading him by re-signing him to a big extension. But in hindsight, trading Dunn and going after him in free agency probably seems like it would have been the smartest course of action at this point.
Luke
Dunn is not the problem for the Nats. Pitching is awful, shortstop defense a serious problem, pitchers can't bunt, baserunning is amateurish, outfield uncertain. Dunn is a huge bargain at $40M. This is a defining issue for Rizzo--one of those decisions that makes or breaks him.
But next year? Perhaps they go out and get Cliff Lee?
Don't waste our money on him,Just watch him get lit up again by the O's again.
Does anyone factor into the "UZR" the number of throws that he probably has saved due to his size? They certainly can't factor in the comfort level having a 6'6" first baseman gives the other infielders. He's easily saved Ryan Zimmerman at least six or seven errors this season. Not saying he's a great defender, but sometimes baseball really is more than just pure statistics.
Maybe I need some new glasses, or a new computer part to my brain. sitting here at home watching Dunn play first base. may not be the same Dunn all of you are seeing. I see him as a below average fielding 1st baseman. he just cannot move to good, al I will say about his moving.
Putting three guys out there, off and on, to cover short is not fixing the problem. Desmond will not get better. He's been a lousy fielder his entire pro career. His mediocre plate work does not compensate. Espinosa may be able to do it; he's been hitting well this year and has been a good fielder in his pro career to date. Alberto G. could well be a sleeper for the spot. There is no doubt about his quality glove and he's been hitting better than Desmond since he has gotten more plate appearances. If I had the best seat in the dugout, Gonzalez would be getting a real good look, to sink or swim, for the rest of this season.