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There are 28 games left in the 2010 regular season, and the only real goal the Nationals have the rest of this year is to figure out where they stand headed into next season. And there are plenty of things they need to work out.
Adam Dunn is inching closer to free agency by the day, and the team has to figure out if it can sign the first baseman to a contract extension. They have to decide how their outfield looks, with Josh Willingham recovering from knee surgery and Nyjer Morgan flailing - both at the plate and, occasionally, at opposing pitchers. And their starting rotation is missing one ace; namely, Stephen Strasburg.
It's going to be an interesting, busy offseason for the Nationals. And in the run-up to the Hot Stove League, here are a few spots the team can start to figure out in the last month of the year.
1. Outfield: When the Nationals began spring training, this looked set: they had Willingham in left, Morgan in center and Elijah Dukes in right. Then the Nationals cut Dukes, and they've been in flux ever since. Morgan, who has a .317 on-base percentage in 116 games, has dropped 52 points in that category from 120 games last year. He played Gold Glove-level defense last year; he's been barely above average this year (0.8 UZR) If the team brings him back, it could be as a fourth outfielder, but it remains to be seen if Morgan would accept that kind of a role after being touted as the team's catalyst at the end of 2009 and entering 2010 as the unquestioned leadoff hitter and center fielder.
They also need to figure out where Roger Bernadina fits. He has a .750 OPS in his first full year, and could be the team's center fielder next year if Morgan isn't the starter. Michael Morse, who's hit 10 homers in 194 at-bats, will get plenty of playing time this month, and he'll have a chance to build his case for more playing time next year. And there's a possibility the Nationals would make a push for Carl Crawford, in whom they're believed to be interested, or Jayson Werth, though either would be an expensive acquisition when it seems like the team can explore some in-house options further.
Willingham is an interesting case. He's entering his final year of arbitration, coming off knee surgery, but posted an .848 OPS playing hurt most of the year. The guess here is he's back, unless the Nationals get a big offer for him this winter.
2. Second base: This could look similar to how the Nationals handled shortstop at the end of 2009, when Ian Desmond thrust himself into contention for the starting job with an electric performance in September. Danny Espinosa will get his chance to do that this year - and this time, there's not even an established veteran to unseat, like Desmond had to do with Cristian Guzman. The Nationals have a $2 million option on Adam Kennedy for next year, but I'd be surprised if they pick it up, especially if Espinosa has a strong month. Expect him to get plenty of chances this month so the team can evaluate him.
3. Starting rotation: Even without Strasburg, this looks remarkably settled for next year - though not completely the way the Nationals would like it. Jordan Zimmermann figures to be at the front of it, and Livan Hernandez is signed for next year. Jason Marquis will also be here; the Nationals are stuck with him at $7.5 million, though he's been pitching well enough lately to give them some hope he can be a respectable innings-eater next year. John Lannan, who has surged in the second half after struggling early this year and being sent to Double-A Harrisburg, is an interesting case. He's entering his first year of arbitration, and figures to get a significant raise after posting solid numbers in 2008 and 2009; Scott Olsen, for example, got $2.8 million without putting up a single season for the Marlins as good as Lannan's 2008 or 2009. So figure Lannan gets something north of $3 million, and the Nationals face an interesting decision: Do they pay big money to their 2009-10 Opening Day starter, or do they decide that's too much to pay for a ground-ball pitcher? I think it's likely the Nationals keep Lannan; he's been durable, coachable and remarkably effective when his sinker is working. He can make his case even stronger this month. The Nationals would love to take a run at Cliff Lee, but it seems unlikely they'd commit the kind of money Lee is sure to get. But Brandon Webb, whom GM Mike Rizzo picked in the eighth round in Arizona, is a free agent after this year. Rizzo loves Webb, and his shoulder injury means he could be had for a year, possibly at a discounted price. But the Nationals paid Chien-Ming Wang $2 million to do nothing but rehab this year, so it's questionable whether they would go down that road again. And speaking of Wang, they'll have to decide whether to offer him arbitration, when he'll get at least $1.6 million for 2011. If Wang makes improvement - or if Yunesky Maya comes to the majors this month and impresses - the rotation could be settled for next year.
There are plenty of other things for the team to solve, but from my view, these are the ones that will be set up the most by events on the field this month. What do you think about those three spots, and are there others you're watching this month?
"The Nationals would love to take a run at Cliff Lee, but it seems unlikely they'd commit the kind of money Lee is sure to get."
-->I'm sure that news must make Peric sad.
I think Kennedy is an interesting case. I could see him being valuable as a back-up/veteran for 2nd base, but I'm not sure if he is $2million valuable. Compared to other contracts it looks small but for a back-up it might be high. He can also play 1st base, but I'm hoping that we are only looking at a back-up there (I'm in the "Sign Dunn" camp) and Morse can fill that spot (unless he is in RF). I think there are just a lot of questions out there and I know that I am going to be surprised. I'm always surprised by some of their choices, some positive, some negative.
------------------------
Yep, lots of interesting choices -- and Kennedy would be one of the top free agents available. I think that all hinges on Espinosa. I can't see Kennedy wanting to come back and get limited at-bats like he did this year. It's not his decision, but I don't know how happy he'd be with that, and that caused a few problems this year. That's why they need to see what Espinosa can do.
Ben
"Adam Dunn is inching closer to free agency by the day"
-->At this point, it's looking increasingly likely he won't be back. Wouldn't be suprised to see him in NY as Nick Johnson's replacement. I don't believe for a minute, he wouldn't DH for the Yanks. But he'll have plenty of suitors out there.
"They have to decide how their outfield looks, with Josh Willingham recovering from knee surgery and Nyjer Morgan flailing - both at the plate and, occasionally, at opposing pitchers."
-->Looks like Willingham will be back, his decline in production and the subequent injury deflated his trade value. If Nyjer doesn't mature, he'll be out of here too. At the very least, I think they'll have "insurance" for Nyjer.
"And their starting rotation is missing one ace; namely, Stephen Strasburg."
-->More of a symbolic loss than anything. He pitches every 5th day, they need a lot more than him to be considered a "serious team." I should point out the team has done WORSE since he's been on the roster.
"He played Gold Glove-level defense last year; he's been barely above average this year (0.8 UZR) If the team brings him back, it could be as a fourth outfielder, but it remains to be seen if Morgan would accept that kind of a role after being touted as the team's catalyst at the end of 2009 and entering 2010 as the unquestioned leadoff hitter and center fielder."
-->As a Rizzo MCM, I think it would be difficult to cut ties with him especially given that trade was Rizzo's "signature trade" in his time in DC thus far. If it weren't for that, I think we might have cut ties by now.
" Michael Morse, who's hit 10 homers in 194 at-bats, will get plenty of playing time this month, and he'll have a chance to build his case for more playing time next year. And there's a possibility the Nationals would make a push for Carl Crawford, in whom they're believed to be interested, or Jayson Werth, though either would be an expensive acquisition when it seems like the team can explore some in-house options further."
-->Morse is back (pending trade), the question is he an everyday player? He'll get the rest of the year and spring training to compelte his audition.
I think Crawford and Werth are unlikely, but not impossible. For cheap owners, I don't see the Lerners giving Crawford and Werth serious dough. I think the former is slightly more likely to come here than the latter. Both are exciting players and make the park less "blue."
"The Nationals have a $2 million option on Adam Kennedy for next year, but I'd be surprised if they pick it up, especially if Espinosa has a strong month. Expect him to get plenty of chances this month so the team can evaluate him."
-->If all goes well, Espinosa is the new second basemen for the Nats. A lot easier of a path than Dessie had to go through last year.
"Even without Strasburg, this looks remarkably settled for next year - though not completely the way the Nationals would like it. Jordan Zimmermann figures to be at the front of it, and Livan Hernandez is signed for next year. Jason Marquis will also be here; the Nationals are stuck with him at $7.5 million, though he's been pitching well enough lately to give them some hope he can be a respectable innings-eater next year. John Lannan [...]"
-->I think you named it Ben. Livo is probably the biggest shoe-in for next year. With the way Marquis has been pitching recently and his salary, I can't see him not playing here. J-Zimm barring a setback is in. That leaves two spots open. Would hard to see Lannan not making one of them. Then this years "Livo spot" will be a cast of characters for one spot. Don't see them re-signing Olsen, but they might do what they did with him last year. I think its between Maya, JD, Wang(where has he been?), Stammen, and possibly some non-roster invitees.
"John Lannan, who has surged in the second half after struggling early this year and being sent to Double-A Harrisburg, is an interesting case. He's entering his first year of arbitration, and figures to get a significant raise after posting solid numbers in 2008 and 2009; Scott Olsen, for example, got $2.8 million without putting up a single season for the Marlins as good as Lannan's 2008 or 2009. So figure Lannan gets something north of $3 million, and the Nationals face an interesting decision: Do they pay big money to their 2009-10 Opening Day starter, or do they decide that's too much to pay for a ground-ball pitcher? I think it's likely the Nationals keep Lannan; he's been durable, coachable and remarkably effective when his sinker is working. He can make his case even stronger this month."
-->I think the lack of Stras, definitely helps Lannan's case. He's been part of the organization for awhile as a homegrown star. He appears on the upswing, I don't like his smugness sometimes and his disrespect for his superiors. Paying $3 million is a lot to the Lerners, but thats pretty standard to me for a two-time Opening Day starter.
"The Nationals would love to take a run at Cliff Lee, but it seems unlikely they'd commit the kind of money Lee is sure to get."
-->I think everyone knows at this point, what I think the chances of this happening are.
"But Brandon Webb, whom GM Mike Rizzo picked in the eighth round in Arizona, is a free agent after this year. Rizzo loves Webb, and his shoulder injury means he could be had for a year, possibly at a discounted price. But the Nationals paid Chien-Ming Wang $2 million to do nothing but rehab this year, so it's questionable whether they would go down that road again. "
-->Stop signing players on one of the worst franchises in the game. You are no longer a Diamondback Rizzo! Don't you think there's a reason they let their super-expensive GM and his hand-picked manager go? Their organization is in shambles, not the same team that won the World Series in 2001. So don't go down this road especially in wake of the Chein-Ming Wang $2 million "donation" for his services(or lack of).
"And speaking of Wang, they'll have to decide whether to offer him arbitration, when he'll get at least $1.6 million for 2011. If Wang makes improvement [..]"
-->This is a lose, lose. So they don't re-sign him, they gave him $2 million for nothing. But if they do, will he ever be healthy?
"or if Yunesky Maya comes to the majors this month and impresses"
-->I think there's a good chance he starts next year in Harrisburg or Syracuse.
"the rotation could be settled for next year."
-->Not so many opening indeed. But remember this year when only Lannan and Marquis were sure things and two months into the season, neither was in the rotation. Goes to show you, you can never have too many options at starting pitching(yes that old cliche).
Ben, you didn't touch on the bullpen, which I am sure you will do in a future article. I think Storen, Burnett, and Clipp are the only locks (pending their contract situations). I guess Stammen also if you count him as a "bullpen guy." Is Slaten or anyone else still under contract? If he is and they have some who are not arbitration eligible, I guess that makes the decision easier. You see any other locks or disagree with my take?
To me, the key is looking beyond 2011 to 2012.
In the outfield, I think it's safe to say that Bernadina and Morse are back in some capacity next season. In two years, you can pencil Harper into right. So it seems to me that if the Nats sign an expensive outfielder, they're essentially saying that Willingham is gone in 2012 when he becomes a free agent, to make room for Harper. If they go cheap/short term, they are probably planning to keep Willingham past 2011.
At least for 2011, second base is either Kennedy or Espinosa. After 2011, it's probably Espinosa. So no need to go outside looking for someone new this off season.
Working backwards, the 2012 rotation is likely to be Strasburg (for 160 innings or so), Zimmermann, Maya and two from the cast of thousands in the system who qualify as 4-5 starters. Unless Maya is better than anticipated, that's probably not a playoff rotation.
Kasten has always said that when the club is ready to compete, that's the time to spend on a big free agent, Greg Maddux-with-the-Braves-style. So it seems to me that either this off-season or next, the Nats should buy a top-tier starter. I hope it's this year.
"The Nationals would love to take a run at Cliff Lee, but it seems unlikely they'd commit the kind of money Lee is sure to get."
-->I'm sure that news must make Peric sad.
I'm sure it makes Maddy sad that they decided to risk so much money on Robby Ray and AJ Cole, not to mention Harper and Solis. They spent more on the this year's draft than any other team I believe?
So, it certainly is possible and feasible for Rizzo to make a run for top of the rotation LEFT HANDED starter which Brandon Webb, Wang, and even Maya ARE NOT. They are all right handed? And I get
the strong impression that Rizzo likes having left handers in his rotation. Thus the huge patience with Olsen (Many thought they would let him go in ST remember Maddy? Soooo soon they forget? I said
that Rizzo would keep the guy just for the reasons above. They'll never learn ... ), and Detwiler as well.
Its why its worth it to keep an eye on what they do with Milone and Sammy Solis in 2011 because I
don't think Mike Rizzo is about to change his attitude when it comes to: a) Having plenty of starting pitching especially in the top-of-the-rotation genre. and b) Seeking rarer left handed top of the rotation starting pitching ... thus Cliff Lee.
As far as MI is concerned it does seem as if Espinosa is a big part of that equation. If he can learn to play second base, can he learn to play a serviceable third base? Can Desmond do the same? I see it as having flexibility in case of injury ... its better to replace a Zim with an Espinosa than with a Gonzalez. Certainly Morse could also play third in that situation. He can actually play every position except catcher ... he has the arm ... shortstop might be problematic at this point but I suspect he could handle it in a pinch.
One big question is offensive production. Can Espinosa the switch hitter become a good major league hitter? Can Desmond continue to improve? Can Zim continue? Is Morse still getting better or has he reached his "Peter principle" plateau? So, you now have a switch hitter and 4 right handers if you throw in Gonzalez. With Kennedy (and Dunn) you get left-handed hitting. Lombardozzi is also a switch hitter and is going to play in the AFL for the Nats. He may be a factor as well in the MI mix. A better version of Kennedy perhaps?
I think the outfield is where they are weakest, in terms of what they have on hand and coming up from the farm system. I can't see Wilingham in the outfield with Dunn gone. He is almost surely headed for first base.
This would open up the outfield for potential trades I think? I don't see them getting Crawford or Werth? If I had to guess they make a strong run for Crawford the left-fielder (knowing they are moving Willingham to first) but Bernadina plays that position best? Both Crawford and Bernadina have left-handed bats.
I see them perhaps making a run for BJ Upton. The Rays have Desmond Jennings ready to come up ... Upton looks to be the odd man out given the last three years offensively. Its another resurrection project like Wang et al in a way? But Rizzo knows the family and perhaps he can prevail upon Upton to improve his offense through coaching? He projects to be the CF they need until Eury Perez is ready. With 50+ stolen bases Perez looks to be the next Morgan, younger with a higher batting average ... hopefully he improves in the all important OBP category. He will undoubtedly be in Potomac next year. He is still young and may develop power as he goes along.
In right field, if they get Crawford, (and you would almost have to assume they get Upton), you could see a platoon of Bernadina and Dunn again with Morgan as the utility guy as Ben mentioned.
Then again, you never know, Mike Rizzo may be able to wrangle a top outfield prospect that is just about ready from another team? Someone, who, like Ramos, is blocked. These would be guys who would want to come to the Nats knowing they almost have a lock on a starting position with a decent ST. He will undoubtedly look for left handed bats / switch hitter especially if they lose Dunn.
*** platoon of Bernadina and Dunn again with Morgan as the utility guy as Ben mentioned.
My bad: meant to say platoon of Bernadina and Morse again ... with Morgan as the utility guy, as Ben mentioned.
My project starting rotation for next year (2011) as of now would be:
1. Livan (Ponce de Leon) Hernandez (defacto ace at this time).
2. Jordan Zimmermann (first full year back from TJ).
3. Yunieski Maya (I think in the end he just might out-shine Chapman).
4. Jason Marquis (Here's your innings eater.)
5. Lannan or Detwiler depending on who does best in ST.
And this is where trade potential exists, one or both might get traded depending on what happens
this offseason. Especially with Lannan eligible for arbitration and Detwiler's underachieving.
Syracuse AAA starting rotation depth in 2011.
1. Tom Milone (probably pitcher of the year in their system .. unless its Danny Rosenbaum)
2. Matt Chico.
3. JD Martin.
4. Shairon Martis.
5. Erik Arneson.
[2 left handed starters stacked in AAA]
Garrett Mock I believe may end up in AA Harrisburg with Aaron Thompson.
Jeff Mandel starts off in Harrisburg as well.
Ryan Tatusko is also a left-handed starter in Harrisburg and left hander
Danny Rosenbaum should be there next year as well.
So, now you've got 3 left handers stacked back in AA in 2011 in
Thompson, Tatusko, and Rosenbaum.
Well now, lets see... Lee WAS a top of the left handed starter.
2009---Wins 14 Losses 13
2010---Wins 10 Losses 8 (so far)
___ ___
Total 24 21 .... Hmmmm!!!!! worth 9-10 million a YEAR!!! dont think so. Granted, Lee is a good left handed pitcher, but not worth the investment IMO!
Besides, i thought we have/had all this pitching down on the farm, why not give them a chance this coming season?? Might get better value for other pitchers next season anyway
Is there a viable outfielder in the system who answers the present need there as well as Maya, etc. (in the rotation), Ramos (catcher) and Espinoza (2B)?
I mean other than Harper .....
"The Nationals have a $2 million option on Adam Kennedy for next year, but I'd be surprised if they pick it up, especially if Espinosa has a strong month."
I'd be surprised if they DON'T pick up Kennedy's option, no matter how strong a month Espinosa has. If they do make the decision to start Espinosa at second next year, that decision won't be made until after spring training. And then even if they do commit to Espinosa, they would still need to acquire experienced backup. Having only Alberto Gonzales as infield backup would not be enough. So given that, it would not make sense for them to cut ties with Kennedy only to have to turn right around and find another version of Adam Kennedy via FA or trade. $2M for a spot starter/IF utility guy is not too much to pay, and there's no guarantee they could find anyone better than Kennedy if they tried.
Well, the only outfielder on the AFL roster is Burgess, and he's just recently promoted to AA. So I'd say 2013 is probably a reasonable guess for him to be in the majors, assuming he can continue to improve.
If Dunn doesn't comeback does that increase Kennedy's chances do you think? Morse would be the obvious in-house candidate at first, but to have Kennedy play multiple positions might increase his value. Not sure if he can play short? You know how Riggleman will mix it up like playing Willie Harris at third.
So, if there's anywhere that they might have to look elsewhere for the answer, it's probably the outfield. For discussion's sake, let's say they're OK with Willingham and Bernadina in 16 in left and 2 in center, or even 2 in left and 16 in right. There's a question mark with every one of the other possibilities -- Morgan, Morse, Maxwell, Harris.
"If they go cheap/short term, they are probably planning to keep Willingham past 2011."
-->I think that's good bet, as evidenced by that season ticket plan they are now offering for the rest of the year and next year, it doesn't sound like they plan to compete in 2011.
"At least for 2011, second base is either Kennedy or Espinosa. After 2011, it's probably Espinosa. So no need to go outside looking for someone new this off season."
-->Agree, except I think Espinosa will get it and Kennedy will get cut. They can have AG back him up.
"Working backwards, the 2012 rotation is likely to be Strasburg (for 160 innings or so), Zimmermann, Maya and two from the cast of thousands in the system who qualify as 4-5 starters. Unless Maya is better than anticipated, that's probably not a playoff rotation."
-->Wouldn't rule out Livo, look at Jamie Moyer and Tim Wakefield, Livo's not close to either age. Also too soon to count out Detwiler. I think 2012 is the year they make a splash, maybe even getting a pitcher of Cliff Lee's caliber.
"Kasten has always said that when the club is ready to compete, that's the time to spend on a big free agent, Greg Maddux-with-the-Braves-style. So it seems to me that either this off-season or next, the Nats should buy a top-tier starter. I hope it's this year."
-->Greg Maddux wasn't as well as established as a pitcher like Cliff Lee is now when he signed with Atlanta. Kasten, Schreulotz (sp?), and Cox (who was GM in the late 80s) did a much better job at player development than Kasten and JimBo did here(jury is still out on Rizzo). They got Smoltz at the beginning of his career and developed Smoltz/Avery among many others. Look at them with Tommy Hansen currently. Greg Maddox was the one player not developed by the Braves. I wrote above that 2012 year will be the year that the Lerners stop being cheap.
"Well, the only outfielder on the AFL roster is Burgess, and he's just recently promoted to AA. So I'd say 2013 is probably a reasonable guess for him to be in the majors, assuming he can continue to improve."
Which of course means there really isn't any ... with the way outside chance that Boomer Whiting is viable? Then there's JMax but they really need the left handed or switch hitting bat.
In 2012-2013 things should be different:
Left Handed / switch hitting bats: Harper, Bloxom, Burgess.
Right Handed: Moore, Ramirez, Perez, Hood, Marerro.
"Certainly Morse could also play third in that situation. He can actually play every position except catcher ... he has the arm ... shortstop might be problematic at this point but I suspect he could handle it in a pinch."
-->Is there anything your MCM Morse can't do? I'm sure he could be a "garbage time" pitcher and could do the "Slaten role" to stick up for Nyjer if he continues his antics. I couldn't see him at 2B, not sure how well CF would work for him either. Third would be interesting but doable.
"Hmmmm!!!!! worth 9-10 million a YEAR!!! dont think so. Granted, Lee is a good left handed pitcher, but not worth the investment IMO!"
I think that's pretty close to what Marquis is making for a lot less? Okay maybe 1.5 -2 million less ... still?
Lee makes a good stop gap to 2012 when Strasburg is back perhaps along with Solis and others. He is the veteran to stabilize this staff at the top of the rotation.
The Nat's market shouldn't have to wait until 2012 to see a contender they have waited too long as it is.
"I'm sure it makes Maddy sad that they decided to risk so much money on Robby Ray and AJ Cole, not to mention Harper and Solis. They spent more on the this year's draft than any other team I believe?"
-->That is their reward for "royally sucking" the past two years and playing historically bad in the Acta era (Cleveland isn't doing much better). Yes, I know he has a bad team wherever he goes, OK maybe he just isn't a good manager. For all you Riggleman haters (and he certaintly isn't the greatest manager), they are doing much better with a marginally better roster. When you have the top picks, you're supposed to be spend. Is their any reason for the Yankees to sign all their picks or give them record contracts?
"Thus the huge patience with Olsen (Many thought they would let him go in ST remember Maddy? Soooo soon they forget? I said that Rizzo would keep the guy just for the reasons above. They'll never learn ... ), and Detwiler as well."
-->Yes, I remember, Olsen is doing a great job right now, Peric. Maybe Rizzo will continue to be patient with him. Detwiler also hasn't done a damn thing to impress me other than every team I see him I think one thing:Jason Heyward. The same thing I think about when I here Billy Rowell's name with the Orioles: Tim Lincecom.
"and b) Seeking rarer left handed top of the rotation starting pitching ... thus Cliff Lee."
-->Good job avoiding the question... this isn't LaLa land, it's DC, not happening.
Peric - "I think in the end he just might out-shine Chapman"?
Chapman got 30M, Maya got 8M. even given the advanced age there is a reason for that. I watched him pitch the other night. He appear to be Livo with an extra 5-6mph on his fastball. Not bad but not Chapman. I think Maya is a solid 3-4 starter.
""Hmmmm!!!!! worth 9-10 million a YEAR!!! dont think so. Granted, Lee is a good left handed pitcher, but not worth the investment IMO!"
I think that's pretty close to what Marquis is making for a lot less? Okay maybe 1.5 -2 million less ... still?"
Jason Marquis didn't have too many people banging at his door, offering the kind of money the Lerners did. Cliff Lee will be way more expensive than Marquis.
"Lee makes a good stop gap to 2012 when Strasburg is back perhaps along with Solis and others. He is the veteran to stabilize this staff at the top of the rotation."
-->Peric, let me try to explain to you why he is NOT coming here. He has now played for four teams in the last two years. He has a lot of people banging on his door. He wants a multi-year deal. He doesn't want to be a cellar dwellar team to get traded around the All-Star break like the last two years. But you'll never learn, so it's probably not worth my time explaining this to you any further.
"Lee makes a good stop gap to 2012 when Strasburg is back perhaps along with Solis and others. He is the veteran to stabilize this staff at the top of the rotation.
The Nat's market shouldn't have to wait until 2012 to see a contender they have waited too long as it is."
-->Your sounding like the Yankees, expecting the Nats to compete each year. They need a LOT more than Lee. A pitcher who pitches every 5th day won't get them into contention, ask Seattle who did a major overhaul and is horrible. Try upgrading one of the worst outfields in the majors both offensively and defensively, the bullpen needs some more arms, the middle infield might set a record for combined errors next year, who knows about Pudge next year, among other reasons.
I think Dessie provided he continues his improvement at short stays there. Short is a lot more of an important position than third. Espy playing third, a different story. I don't think they want to confuse the kid at the beginning of his career. I know your a big fan of "alternating" but not a good idea here.
"Besides, i thought we have/had all this pitching down on the farm, why not give them a chance this coming season?? Might get better value for other pitchers next season anyway ... "
Not quite yet ... another transition year, at least, is needed. Lot of failures from the previous drafts:
(staring pitching wise ... at least 2 or more converted to relief? Mock and Chico might be as well?)
Left-handed FAIL: Smoker, McGreary (injured), Detwiler, O'Connor, Bray, Chico.
Unfortunately, we have to wait for the replenished assets to work their way up:
Milone, Rosenbaum, Thompson (perhaps another Fail?), Solis, Tatusko.
"I think the outfield is where they are weakest, in terms of what they have on hand and coming up from the farm system. I can't see Wilingham in the outfield with Dunn gone. He is almost surely headed for first base."
-->Your boy, Morse has been getting reps at first, so far Willingham hasn't. Not saying that won't change, but just pointing that out. I could easily see Willingham going back to Left. Not sure the type of first base he could play anyways.
"This would open up the outfield for potential trades I think? I don't see them getting Crawford or Werth? If I had to guess they make a strong run for Crawford the left-fielder (knowing they are moving Willingham to first) but Bernadina plays that position best? Both Crawford and Bernadina have left-handed bats."
-->Either is more likely than Lee.
"I see them perhaps making a run for BJ Upton. The Rays have Desmond Jennings ready to come up ... Upton looks to be the odd man out given the last three years offensively. Its another resurrection project like Wang et al in a way? But Rizzo knows the family and perhaps he can prevail upon Upton to improve his offense through coaching? He projects to be the CF they need until Eury Perez is ready. With 50+ stolen bases Perez looks to be the next Morgan, younger with a higher batting average ... hopefully he improves in the all important OBP category. He will undoubtedly be in Potomac next year. He is still young and may develop power as he goes along."
-->I can't see the Rays giving up on Upton quite yet, given his high draft pick status. Getting him will almost requiring the Nats to give up one of their young guns, J-Zimm, Detwiler, and even possibly Espinosa. Dunn is no longer a trading chip. They won't get rid of Zimm. Ok I don't see this happening , but who knows.
"Then again, you never know, Mike Rizzo may be able to wrangle a top outfield prospect that is just about ready from another team? Someone, who, like Ramos, is blocked. These would be guys who would want to come to the Nats knowing they almost have a lock on a starting position with a decent ST."
-->Now your thinking, I think thats the path they should take.
"My project starting rotation for next year (2011) as of now would be:
1. Livan (Ponce de Leon) Hernandez (defacto ace at this time).
2. Jordan Zimmermann (first full year back from TJ).
3. Yunieski Maya (I think in the end he just might out-shine Chapman).
4. Jason Marquis (Here's your innings eater.)
5. Lannan or Detwiler depending on who does best in ST.
And this is where trade potential exists, one or both might get traded depending on what happens
this offseason. Especially with Lannan eligible for arbitration and Detwiler's underachieving."
-->I agree with your first two and your last three. I think Maya might need some more seasoning, but its definitely possible. On your last one, I think atleast one of them makes since Rizzo loves lefties (and you love lefties too). I don't think either gets traded. We all know you hate Lannan and unless he acquires a JD Martin-like gf, we know your hatred will continue. Detwiler, way too early to close the door. Of the two, I think Detwiler is more likely to get traded as he is "growing" and Lannan is "ripe." You seem to have a short memory when it comes to Lannan.
I do appreciate the minor league info, I think you have to fill Brian's shoes at this point to keep the torch going.
Syracuse AAA starting rotation depth in 2011.
1. Tom Milone (probably pitcher of the year in their system .. unless its Danny Rosenbaum)
2. Matt Chico.
3. JD Martin.
4. Shairon Martis.
5. Erik Arneson.
[2 left handed starters stacked in AAA]
Garrett Mock I believe may end up in AA Harrisburg with Aaron Thompson.
Jeff Mandel starts off in Harrisburg as well.
Ryan Tatusko is also a left-handed starter in Harrisburg and left hander
Danny Rosenbaum should be there next year as well.
So, now you've got 3 left handers stacked back in AA in 2011 in
Thompson, Tatusko, and Rosenbaum.
"Well now, lets see... Lee WAS a top of the left handed starter.
2009---Wins 14 Losses 13
2010---Wins 10 Losses 8 (so far)"
-->I think Ws/Ls are overrated, I like to look at Quality Starts and ERA more. A pitcher like Atliano has a much better record than his stats indicate. Stephen's W to L ratio don't blow your mind, but his pitches do.
"Hmmmm!!!!! worth 9-10 million a YEAR!!! dont think so. Granted, Lee is a good left handed pitcher, but not worth the investment IMO!"
-->Well if Marquis is worth $7.5 mill, isn't Lee worth a lot more? If Stephen were a lefty would he be worth $20 mil instead of 15?
"Besides, i thought we have/had all this pitching down on the farm, why not give them a chance this coming season?? Might get better value for other pitchers next season anyway"
-->Definitely a good point there, lets see what the young guns are made of in a rebuilding year and not some retreads.
The thing is Kennedy was not happy about the lack of playing time this season. While Ben points out it's not his decision, I think it would be detrimental to the team to keep an unhappy player on the roster.
"Kasten has always said that when the club is ready to compete, that's the time to spend on a big free agent, Greg Maddux-with-the-Braves-style. So it seems to me that either this off-season or next, the Nats should buy a top-tier starter. I hope it's this year."
-------
I agree, good competition is good for everyone, time to go open the checkbook and get two HEALTHY top flight pitchers and see what ST brings.
"Not quite yet ... another transition year, at least, is needed. Lot of failures from the previous drafts"
-->I think we say this every year since 2005. Oh well, will probably be saying this in 2015.
"Left-handed FAIL: Smoker, McGreary (injured), Detwiler, O'Connor, Bray, Chico."
-->You're writing Detwiler off already? And why isn't Lannan on this list with all scathing things you've written about him.
Carl Crawford is the man they need to go after. Then the outfield would be Willingham, Bernadina and Crawford.
Not much to add other than I'd money down that Rizzo's top FA pitching target is Jake Westbrook.
As an Indians fan (as well as Nats) he's exactly the type of pitcher Rizzo loves to horde.
A Manny fan you must be?
"Peric - "I think in the end he just might out-shine Chapman"?
Chapman got 30M, Maya got 8M. even given the advanced age there is a reason for that. I watched him pitch the other night. He appear to be Livo with an extra 5-6mph on his fastball. Not bad but not Chapman. I think Maya is a solid 3-4 starter. "
-->Not suprising, he compared Morse to Heyward.
This is always a fun topic. Here is my wish list (not saying it is likely):
1. Trade for Colby Rasmus. He most likely isn't available, but if TLR goes back to STL, who knows? Maybe a package of Bernie, Espinoza and Milone or Meyers?
2. Sign Crawford. I think that they will actually go after him, but I see a Texiera ending again.
3. Trade for a 2B, maybe a bounce back candidate like Aaron Hill or Howie Kendrick.
4. Sign Javy Vasquez. Probably can get him for a reasonable 2 year contract, and has organizational ties and DC is an easy flight to PR. Also a bounceback candidate.
5. Resign Dunn or sign Pena.
Two sub-par players and an All-Star... perfect.
You're writing Detwiler off already? And why isn't Lannan on this list with all scathing things you've written about him.
Lannan isn't a FAIL Maddy. He is what he is a 5th starter. He just needs to get into the seventh and eighth innings more than he has up to this point. But, they already have way too many of those. Its not that he's bad they just need something different ... not the left-handed equivalent of Jason Marquis.
They need Solis to pitch is way to the majors to remedy this without going outside.
This is always a fun topic. Here is my wish list (not saying it is likely):
1. Trade for Colby Rasmus. He most likely isn't available, but if TLR goes back to STL, who knows? Maybe a package of Bernie, Espinoza and Milone or Meyers?
>> Well first off Meyers is rule 5 eligible this year. They may not protect him. Milone is a left handed starter that is almost major league ready. I see them trading Chico and Lannan before Milone. I don't think the Cardinals are going to trade a top prospect like Rasmus. Finally, with 50 steals + 19 year old
Eury Perez now in Hagerstown ... probably in Potomac next year they are very close to replacing Morgan from within the organization. Albeit Rasmus could also play right field. I think the stick with Bernadina for now and trade the excess pitching.
2. Sign Crawford. I think that they will actually go after him, but I see a Texiera ending again.
>>> He's a left handed left fielder. He will likely wear pinstripes and aim his homers for the short right
field porch. Something to consider ... the Yankees might be interested in Bernadina .... and they
do have some interesting prospects who might be blocked.
3. Trade for a 2B, maybe a bounce back candidate like Aaron Hill or Howie Kendrick.
4. Sign Javy Vasquez. Probably can get him for a reasonable 2 year contract, and has organizational ties and DC is an easy flight to PR. Also a bounceback candidate.
5. Resign Dunn or sign Pena.
"Lannan isn't a FAIL Maddy. He is what he is a 5th starter. He just needs to get into the seventh and eighth innings more than he has up to this point. But, they already have way too many of those. Its not that he's bad they just need something different ... not the left-handed equivalent of Jason Marquis."
-->First of all, he goes further in games the past three years than anyone else on the team. But even just this year, the only player who goes longer than him is Livo.
Let's see how far do Olsen, Stras, Marquis, Mock, Atliano, Detwiler typically go in their starts?
Your statement about "need[ing] something different" is your opinion and your opinion only. You put too much emphasis into UNPROVEN prospects in my opinion. Plenty of these players don't pan out.
"2. Sign Crawford. I think that they will actually go after him, but I see a Texiera ending again.
>>> He's a left handed left fielder. He will likely wear pinstripes and aim his homers for the short right
field porch. Something to consider ... the Yankees might be interested in Bernadina .... and they
do have some interesting prospects who might be blocked."
-->Even the Yankees cut their payroll this year, a new stadium is expensive after all. I don't think Crawford will be there since Gardner is a much cheaper player and poses many of the same skills and traits that Crawford does, They do have Granderson and Swisher so not sure how much flexibility there is in the outfield.
Also very interesting you refer to Lannan as a "5th starter," obviously the Nats felt differently since he was their Opening Day starter the last two years.
Did Lannan not give you an autograph?, your arguments for trading him seem a bit personal to me. He's obviously not one of your MCMs.