Nats surprise with Willits as No. 1 pick (updated)
In the end, the Nationals went with the other talented shortstop from Oklahoma whose father played in the big leagues.
The Nats selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick in tonight’s Major League Baseball Draft, a choice that may have surprised some but became increasingly possible over the last week both because of the 17-year-old’s all-around skills and the suspicion he might command a lower signing bonus than either Ethan Holliday or Kade Anderson, possibly opening the door for the club to go over slot on later-round picks.
Owners of the top selection in the draft for the third time in club history, the Nationals faced a much tougher decision this time than they did when last they found themselves in this position. Stephen Strasburg (2009) and Bryce Harper (2010) were no-brainers, two of the most highly touted prospects in the history of the sport.
The list of viable options was much longer this year, with Willits joined by fellow Oklahoma high school infielder Holliday, LSU left-hander Anderson, Tennessee lefty Liam Doyle and California high school right-hander Seth Hernandez all meriting consideration down to the wire, according to a source familiar with the club’s deliberations.
Willits, who admitted he made it his personal goal to be drafted No. 1 overall two years ago, was optimistic about his chances after he visited Nationals Park last month and got a chance to meet team executives and coaches. That didn't diminish his emotions when he officially got the call today.
"Every kid's dream is to be the No. 1 overall pick," Willits said. "That's just something I set my standards to. It's what people say the best pick in the draft. If you go No. 1 overall, no one can go above you. I'm just grateful and thankful for god to put me in this situation."
As June turned to July, Holliday and Anderson topped most projections. But the Nationals (who won this year’s Draft Lottery despite finishing with the majors’ fourth-worst record last year) chose a more strategic path that may have been jumpstarted by this week’s surprising front office shakeup.
The Nats had long since begun the process of evaluating and debating the choice when longtime general manager Mike Rizzo was fired one week ago. Interim GM Mike DeBartolo, who had been a part of draft negotiations for years as Rizzo’s second-in-command and top analyst, took on a more prominent role overseeing the team’s existing scouting leadership: vice president of amateur scouting Danny Haas, senior director of amateur scouting Brad Ciolek and assistant scouting director/national crosschecker Reed Dunn.
"Danny and our scouting leadership have been working on this for over a year, and they've had their eye on Eli for a very long time," DeBartolo said. "They've been seeing all the top players, and we started chopping it up this last week to narrow things down, and Eli was the top guy on our boards. It was one of those nice things where the scouts and the analysts see things the exact same way and saw him as the best hitter in the draft, the best fielder in the draft, with just great makeup, great work ethic and all the intangibles. Everything came together, and it was a really collaborative and great process."
Though Holliday garnered more attention, Willits made a name for himself playing in the same state, a switch-hitting star shortstop at Fort Cobb-Broxton High School, where he won six state championships in three years (one a piece each spring and fall).
The youngest player in this year’s draft, he also has strong bloodlines: His father, Reggie Willits, was an outfielder with the Angels from 2006-11 and coached first base for the Yankees from 2018-21. At 6-foot-1, 180 pounds, Eli Willits doesn’t have the physique of Holliday but is viewed as a more complete player who will be able to thrive at the shortstop position.
"Very rarely do you get a chance to get what we think is the best hitter in the draft and the best defensive shortstop in the draft," Haas said. He later added: "Up the middle offensive and defense value is so rare. And he already has a lot of things going for him in that direction."
Willits put up monster numbers this season -- a .473 batting average, 23 extra-base hits, 47 stolen bases, 27 walks, four strikeouts and a .602 on-base percentage in 128 plate appearances -- and he did so a year younger than his senior high school teammates. He chose to reclassify himself for this year's draft class, and at 17 years, 7 months is now the youngest player ever drafted No. 1 overall, younger even than Harper was in 2010.
"That was definitely a goal of mine," he said. "I read that not too long ago, and that stuck with me ever since. I'm just grateful the Nationals gave me this opportunity."
The fact the Nationals gave such serious consideration to – and ultimately selected – Willits may suggest a more strategic method to their draft room than in previous years: He isn’t expected to command as high a signing bonus as Anderson or Holliday, who are both represented by Scott Boras. With a total pool of $16,597,800 to spend on all 20 of their picks over the next two days, the Nats could now allocate more money to prospects with first-round talent who fall to the second or third round, a strategy DeBartolo alluded to in his introductory press conference last week.
The Nationals used their second round pick (49th overall) on outfielder Ethan Petry from South Carolina. The 6-foot-4, 235-pound slugger offers major power potential but is prone to swings and misses. He also may not have the defensive skills long-term to stick in the outfield, which could prompt a move to first base at some point.
"We felt like he was solid this year in right field," Haas said. "His accomplishment jacket is outstanding. In the spring, in the summer with wood bats, he's got power that plays in games to all fields, and he manages ABs well. And he's had some very good success against some high-profile pitchers."
The Nats then used their third round pick on a pitcher who might just fit into DeBartolo's strategy: Landon Harmon. The 6-foot-5 right-hander from East Union, Miss., was touted as the 48th best prospect overall this year by MLB Pipeline but fell tot he No. 80 slot because he's committed to pitch at Mississippi State. If the Nationals can lure the flamethrower with an above-slot offer made possible by savings on Willits, they might have themselves another high-upside pitching prospect along the lines of 2023 third round pick Travis Sykora.
"We try to avoid comps, but the projection part's definitely got the stuff," Haas said. "He's got a great arm. He already flashes a very good breaking ball and has a feel for a changeup, with reasonable strikes for his level. He's going to continue to get more consistent and add strength."
Holliday, the younger brother of Jackson Holliday (selected by the Orioles as the No. 1 pick in 2022) and son of Matt Holliday (seven-time All-Star during a career spent mostly with the Rockies and Cardinals) was under a bright spotlight from a young age. Already 6-foot-4, 210 pounds at 18, Holliday resembles his father more than his brother, a slugger with immense power potential. A left-handed hitter, he mashed as a senior at Stillwater High School, batting .611 with 19 homers and a 2.038 OPS.
Though he would have been drafted as a shortstop, Holliday may have to move to third base at some point during his climb through the minors, his large frame likely a better fit at a corner position than up the middle, a potential red flag for evaluators.
Anderson, 21, busted out as a sophomore this season and helped pitch LSU to its second College World Series title in three years. The 6-foot-2, 179-pound lefty led the nation with 180 strikeouts in 119 innings, then tossed a 130-pitch shutout to beat Coastal Carolina in Game 1 of the finals.
Though he doesn’t possess an elite fastball – it averages 92-94 mph – Anderson already has command of four different pitches at a young age, throwing two types of breaking balls (slider, curveball) and a changeup to keep hitters off-balance. That deep repertoire and knowledge of the art of pitching left scouts convinced he’s going to be an effective big league starter, one who could be ready to debut before the end of the 2026 season.
The potential red flags? Anderson got many of his swings and misses on pitches out of the zone, raising questions about his ability to be a true ace in the majors. He also underwent Tommy John surgery as a high school senior in 2022, though he’s returned healthy since.
Doyle was rated slightly lower than the other contenders despite producing big numbers at Tennessee to cap off a long journey to this night. The 21-year-old left-hander twice transferred in college, spending one season a piece at Coastal Carolina and Mississippi before finally settling at Tennessee this season.
Selected the SEC’s Pitcher of the Year over Anderson, Doyle led the nation with 15.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Owner of a power fastball that reached 100 mph, the 6-foot-2, 220-pound southpaw also utilizes a slider, cutter and splitter with an unorthodox delivery.
Hernandez, 19, was hoping to become the first high school right-hander selected with the No. 1 pick in MLB Draft history. The Corona (Calif.) flamethrower delivered an 0.39 ERA and 105 strikeouts with only seven walks in 53 1/3 innings while earning Gatorade National Player of the Year honors.
Ultimately, a Nationals front office with a new voice in charge went with the youngest player from the entire group, a player younger than even Harper was when he was drafted 15 years ago.
"He was the guy we wanted all along," DeBartolo said. "And we're really excited it worked out so well."