Lineup construction is constantly evolving. 

Take the leadoff spot, for example. 20 years ago, it may have been hard to imagine a hitter of Kyle Schwarber’s ilk getting the game started. That spot was typically reserved for a contact-first base stealing threat, and someone like Schwarber would be hitting third or fourth. Now, bats like Taylor Ward, coming off of a 36 home run season, can be penciled in at the top of the Orioles lineup card if they sport a high on-base percentage and a solid plate approach. 

Typically, the top of the lineup card, No. 1 through No. 5, is filled with the team’s best hitters. A team wants their most dangerous hitters getting the most plate appearances. But should that strategy change at the bottom of the order? 

The Orioles’ Jeremiah Jackson serves as a good case study. 

Entering yesterday’s contest against the Guardians, Jackson had been the No. 8 or No. 9 hitter in the lineup in 13 of his 18 appearances. In the eight spot, Jackson is hitting a whopping .368 and slugging .737, good for an OPS of 1.105. Batting ninth, he’s hitting .357 and sports a .952 OPS. 

Manager Craig Albernaz views Jackson as a way to keep things moving for the big bats up top. 

“I value the nine hole in turning the lineup over, especially with Gunnar, Ward and Alonso at the top. When Adley’s healthy, Adley,” the skipper said earlier this week. “So, it’s having someone that can stabilize the bottom of the lineup, and not to mention, JJ’s performing pretty good in the nine hole, so let’s keep him there.” 

Jackson hit fifth in yesterday’s lineup, but the example can stand for other Baltimore bats, too. In yesterday’s sixth inning, No. 7 hitter, Coby Mayo, reached on a walk. No. 8, Sam Huff, had a sharp single to left. Then, after a Blaze Alexander flyout, leadoff hitter Taylor Ward’s three-run home run slashed the Guardians’ lead. 

The concept of having a hitter like Jackson down at No. 8 or No. 9 rather than the middle of the order is relatively simple: if a batter is hitting sixth in the lineup and reaches base, he is relying on the seven through nine hitters to drive him in. If a batter is hitting eighth or ninth in the lineup, he is relying on the one through three hitters to drive him in. 

A rebuttal to this construction is the same as the benefit to having your best hitters at the top of the order: you want your best hitters to get the most plate appearances. 

However, looking back at some research done by FanGraphs in 2017, the difference in batting first versus batting ninth is about one plate appearance per game, but the difference between hitting sixth and ninth is more negligible. While the data is nearly 10 years old, it’s reasonable to assume that the general theory remains the same. 

FanGraphs found that leadoff hitters averaged 4.65 plate appearances per game started, and with each spot down in the lineup, that number decreases by about .10 plate appearances per game. The average number of plate appearances in the lineup was 4.22, with hitters one through five appearing more often than average and hitters six through nine less often. Over the span of 600 plate appearances, about a full season’s worth, that’s a difference of about 15 plate appearances per year. 

If Jackson continues to establish himself as one of the best hitters in the lineup, perhaps Albernaz will hit the second baseman fifth, a spot where he gets more plate appearances than average, as he did yesterday. In the meantime, though, let’s consider a specific hypothetical: the merits of Jackson batting sixth versus batting ninth. 

The six spot, according to FanGraphs, averaged 4.13 plate appearances per game, while the nine hitter averaged 3.77. On average, for every three games that Jackson hit ninth instead of sixth, he would lose one plate appearance. Advantage sixth. 

However, with Jackson’s great batting average, the Orioles would need to consider how often the second baseman could be stranded on base hitting in front of spots seven through nine versus one through three. Additionally, how could having another prolific right-handed bat hitting in front of Ward and Gunnar Henderson could impact the opposition’s bullpen decisions? Advantage ninth. 

No matter where the O’s place Jackson in the lineup, he’s likely to make an impact. But, for now, the bottom of the order has helped Baltimore set the table in an unconventional way. 

“JJ can hit anywhere in the lineup, but right now, the way our lineup is flowing and how he’s impacting the team, it’s perfect for the nine hole,” Albernaz said. 

Advantage ninth.