-1745819772711.png){kind=logo}
On Oct. 17, 2024, the Guardians were one out away from finding themselves in a nearly insurmountable hole.
Luke Weaver, a failed starter turned high-leverage Yankees reliever, had the chance to give New York a 3-0 advantage in the American League Championship Series. All he had to do was put away a 22-year-old pinch-hitter with 74 big league games under his belt: Jhonkensy Noel.
Big Christmas, as he’s called, didn’t go down so easily.
On a 1-0 count, Noel punished a Weaver changeup that caught too much of the plate and drove it into deep left field for a game-tying two-run homer. It pushed the game to extras, where the Guardians emerged victorious. Cleveland lost the series, but between Noel’s heroic moment and his .958 OPS in the series, it seemed as if they had found a new middle-of-the-order bat for years to come.
The catchy nickname didn’t hurt, either.
Noel’s debut season supported that thinking, too. The outfielder earned a promotion to the majors in late June 2024, and homered in his first career game. He accumulated 20 more extra-base hits in the 66 games that followed, en route to a .774 OPS.
Given all of this promise, it might be surprising to learn that after his second season, Noel was available to claim on waivers. The Orioles did just that today, while also designating right-hander George Soriano for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
The reason for his availability was a disastrous 2025 season filled with nothing but coal.
As is the case with many sluggers, Big Christmas has the tendency to swing freely and ferociously, leading to a high strikeout rate. The successful power hitters in the game still make good swing decisions, leading to at least average chase and walk rates that, combined with their power numbers, balance out the strikeouts. Noel hasn’t found the same success in that arena.
According to FanGraphs, among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances in 2025, Noel had the highest out-of-zone swing percentage at a whopping 51.3 percent, the only hitter to cross the 50 percent threshold. He made contact just 59.2 percent of the time, which ranked 271st. His overall contact rate on swings, at 68.5 percent, was all the way down at 424th.
Despite electrifying bat speed and power potential, the former international signing’s habit of chasing led to a 34 percent strikeout rate and just a 2.6 percent walk rate. That, and a dip in power production, dragged his 2025 batting average and on-base percentage below .200. Combine those numbers with average defense in a corner outfield, and you’re left with a player that found himself on waivers.
Without any minor league options, Noel’s roster spot and outlook for 2026 is a tricky one to forecast. The slugger is only 24 and has posted quality numbers in Triple-A, including a 61-game sample in 2025 in which he hit .273 with a .337 on-base percentage and an .831 OPS. But can enough work be done in the offseason and spring training to improve his swing decisions and help him return to his rookie form?
If so, Noel could be another quality power option off the bench for Baltimore. Though his defense in right is, according to Statcast’s outs above average metric, relatively average, the former Guardian does have a cannon for an arm and the ability to play a corner outfield or first base. Those are currently crowded positions for the O’s, though.
With Big Christmas, the Orioles have a low-risk, high-upside power bat that, with the right adjustments, could make plenty of noise in spring training.
