masn-baseballs-orioles.jpgFans, reporters and even baseball executives can debate the stats in the game – advanced, traditional or any others. There is probably no one stat that summarizes a player’s contribution in a nice and neat number, although Wins Above Replacement and others attempt to do that. It at least gives us a framework for some level of a comparison.
But for an admitted somewhat simplistic look at Orioles players and comparing their offense from 2017 to 2018, we could look at OPS+. It provides a…

Fans, reporters and even baseball executives can debate the stats in the game – advanced, traditional or any others. There is probably no one stat that summarizes a player’s contribution in a nice and neat number, although Wins Above Replacement and others attempt to do that. It at least gives us a framework for some level of a comparison.

But for an admitted somewhat simplistic look at Orioles players and comparing their offense from 2017 to 2018, we could look at OPS+. It provides a comparison to both last year and to league average for any player.

According to Fangraphs, here is the definition of OPS+

This statistic normalizes a player’s OPS — it adjusts for small variables that might affect OPS scores (e.g. park effects) and puts the statistic on an easy-to-understand scale. A 100 OPS+ is league average, and each point up or down is one percentage point above or below league average. In other words, if a player had a 90 OPS+ last season, that means their OPS was 10% below league average. Since OPS+ adjusts for league and park effects, it’s possible to use OPS+ to compare players from different years and on different teams.

In our case we will use the stat to compare the same Orioles from the last two years. Among the Orioles that get the most plate appearances, it will be no surprise whatsoever that Chris Davis has had the biggest falloff from last season, but second baseman Jonathan Schoop’s batting has fallen dramatically too from his 2017 production. Then he hit .293/.338/.503 and now he’s batting .209/.246/.347.

Davis-White-After-Strikeout-Sidebar.jpgDavis’ OPS+ has fallen from 95 to 28, a drop of 67 points. If his 2017 season was disappointing, he was not far from league average then per this stat. But now, at 28, yikes. Even in hitting just 26 home runs last season, Davis averaged one every 17.5 at-bats. He has hit one every 51.8 at-bats this season.

By the way, Davis had an OPS+ of 168 in 2013, 147 in 2015 and 110 as recently as 2016. He was under 100 last year but now he’s way down any list. Again, telling us nothing we didn’t already know here. Just putting a stat on it.

Schoop’s OPS+ has fallen 60 points from 123 to 63, as he’s gone from well-above league average to well below. The constant focus on Davis has taken some of the limelight off Schoop and his struggles. His OPS is only .593 (it was .841 in 2017) and he’s batting .149 with runners in scoring position.

Trey Mancini has lost 33 points from 120 when he finished third in the Rookie of the Year vote in 2017, to 87. Pedro Alvarez has fallen from 112 to 96. Adam Jones is down by just one point from 109 to 108. Both numbers are above league average however and not that far off his top seasons in Baltimore of 118 and 125.

Others, who have played much less, have seen drop-offs. Tim Beckham has had just 93 plate appearances this year but his OPS+ is down from 110 last year (with two teams) to 43. Caleb Joseph dropped from 86 to 44, Craig Gentry from 94 to 70, Jace Peterson from 70 to 61.

Chance Sisco is way down but is a special case in that last year’s OPS+ of 224 was produced via just 22 big league plate appearances last September, which included two doubles and two homers. He’s at 90 now, not far off league average.

No one has gained more than Manny Machado, of course. His OPS+ is 161, up from 107 last year, a gain of 54 points. If Machado finishes with that number, he’ll set a career-high. His previous best was 132 in 2015. Danny Valencia has gained 31 points, going from 96 to 127. He has improved hitting right-handed pitchers and now bats .265 with an OPS of .787 versus lefty pitchers and .300/.859 versus right-handers. That has had to be a nice surprise for the club. Mark Trumbo is up 10 points, from 83 to 93. Joey Rickard is up nine points from 67 to 76.

In team OPS, the Orioles rank last in the American League at .665. Last year the Orioles were at .747. The 2018 AL team leaders are New York (.794) and Boston (786).

Grenier honored: The Orioles’ second 2018 draft pick, Oregon State shortstop Cadyn Grenier, has won the 2018 Brooks Wallace Award, presented annually to the nation’s top collegiate shortstop by the College Baseball Foundation.

Grenier follows in the footsteps of previous recipients to include Dansby Swanson (2015 – Vanderbilt), Trea Turner (2014 – NC State) and Alex Bregman (2013 – LSU). Grenier is also the first player from the Pac-12 Conference to win the honor.

Earlier, he was named the Pac-12’s Defensive Player of the Year in May and was also selected to the conference’s first team. He was also recognized by Baseball America as a second-team All-American and by D1Baseball.com as a third-teamer. Academically, he was selected as an Academic All-Region First-Teamer by CoSIDA and was also named First-Team All-Academic by the Pac-12.

Oregon State will play North Carolina on Saturday afternoon at the College World Series in Omaha. As reported here previously, the Orioles have agreed to terms with Grenier on a deal that should come in slightly below the slot bonus of $1,923,500 for the No. 37 pick. Grenier cannot officially be signed until the end of his season.

Erwin is an All-Star: Single-A Frederick relief pitcher Tyler Erwin has been added to the Carolina League Northern Division All-Star team. It marks the first professional All-Star selection for Erwin, a 23rd-round draft pick in 2016 out of New Mexico State.

In 21 games, the 23-year-old Erwin is 0-2 with a 0.87 ERA and five saves. Over 31 innings, the left-hander has allowed just five runs (three earned) on 18 hits with 10 walks and 36 strikeouts. Opponents are hitting just .168 off Erwin.

He will join four other Keys in the All-Star game on June 19 in Zebulon, N.C. Others previously announced were outfielder Ryan McKenna, second baseman Preston Palmeiro and pitchers Alex Wells and Cristian Alvarado.

Aberdeen’s opener: The short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds open a new season tonight at Leidos Field at Ripken Stadium. The IronBirds host Hudson Valley at 7:05 p.m. to begin a six-game homestand.

Victor Romero, a 23-year-old Venezuelan-born right-hander, will be the opening night starter on the mound. Since 2014, Romero has pitched in short-season ball mostly between the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League. Last year he went 3-2 with a 1.87 ERA over 33 2/3 innings with all those innings but one at Aberdeen, spent with the GCL Orioles. In his career he is 8-14 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 186 innings.

Yesterday we published the preliminary Aberdeen roster on the eve of opening night in this entry.

On the farm last night, Jimmy Yacabonis gave up two runs over 4 2/3 with five strikeouts in Triple-A Norfolk’s win over Charlotte. Over his last six starts, Yacabonis has now gone 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA, allowing just four earned runs over 28 1/3 innings.

Single-A Frederick beat Down East 10-3 for its seventh straight win to improve to 32-33. The Keys last seven-game win streak was July 16-23, 2017. Alvarado recorded his seventh quality start allowing two runs in six innings. Center fielder McKenna had another big game, going 2-for-3 with a triple, an RBI and two walks. He’s now batting .374/.467/.545.

McKenna’s .374 batting average is second-best in all of minor league baseball to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of Double-A New Hampshire at .407. Over his last eight games he is 13-for-24 (.542) to raise his average 18 points.