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Zach Eflin probably won’t rise to the top of the Orioles’ rotation, where he resided on 2025 Opening Day. He might not settle at the bottom of it, either. However, he ranks highly on the list of potential bounce back candidates.
That’s because of his back.
Eflin went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 31 starts with the Rays in 2023 and finished sixth in American League Cy Young voting. He posted a combined 3.59 ERA in 28 starts with Tampa Bay and the Orioles in 2024, allowing only 16 runs in 55 1/3 innings after the deadline trade.
Upon further review, it’s simply amazing that Eflin was this productive in his career while dealing with intense pain that eventually wrecked his mechanics, making him jump off his back foot, avoid using his lower half to drive through the baseball and drop his arm angle. Tricks to make it through each start that morphed into bad habits.
It finally caught up to him. All of it. The forced adjustments and pain that he described this week as someone holding a lighter to the bottom of his back.
Try reading that line without cringing.
Having Eflin pitching to his capabilities after his lumbar microdiscectomy makes him a bargain at a guaranteed $10 million, and he can jump into the free agent market again for a chance at a bigger payday. (A repaired back enables him to jump, too.)
The contract includes a $25 million mutual option for 2027 with a $2 million buyout. The buyout and option can increase according to the number of starts this season, with the option maxing out at $30 million and the buyout at $7 million.
Rarely do you see mutual options exercised. Eflin could be another one-and-done, but the deal benefits both parties and illustrates again how much the Orioles are geared toward winning in 2026. And how much leadership in the clubhouse is valued. Eflin is the veteran for other pitchers to lean on and to learn from.
Where does Eflin slot in the rotation? We’ve tried to tackle this topic already and it’s too early. We don’t know whether Eflin will be ready on Opening Day, though his first bullpen session is Jan. 6 and he believes it’s possible, and whether president of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias is committed to finding another starter.
If Elias completes another signing or trade, it’s likely for a pitcher near or at the top of the rotation. Eflin and Shane Baz provide ample coverage in the middle-to-back end.
I’ve got Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Baz, Eflin and Dean Kremer in that order. I also could see Baz and Eflin flip-flopping if the latter is a full-go in camp and pitching as he’s done previously in his career. He earned the Opening Day start last season. I also could see Kremer moving up and Tyler Wells being the No. 5 if Eflin is on the injured list and Elias doesn’t make another acquisition.
Results in spring training could dictate the exact placement.
Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Zac Gallen and Tatsuya Imai remain on the free agent market as we approach New Year’s Day. Imai’s posting window closes Friday at 5 p.m.
Eflin figured to be bouncing back with another team but he’s the Orioles’ first free agent to make the boomerang move and return. I didn’t see it coming, but I remain confident that Tomoyuki Sugano and Gary Sánchez aren’t walking through that door.
Who else could make a dramatic recovery from a down year?
The Orioles need one from catcher Adley Rutschman, who hit .207 with a .585 in 58 games after the 2024 All-Star break and .220 with a .673 OPS last season in 90 games.
This output doesn’t match the player who finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 and won a Silver Slugger in 2023 while also finishing ninth in Most Valuable Player balloting.
New hitting coach Dustin Lind and assistant Brady North will try to get Rutschman back on track. Good health would make the job much easier, after Rutschman endured his first two trips to the injured list last season with oblique strains on his left and right sides.
Elias made it clear during a couple of offseason interviews that Rutschman remained the No. 1 catcher. The club’s opinion of the former first-overall draft pick hadn’t changed.
“Adley’s a guy, he will be our front-line catcher,” Elias said in his season-ending press conference. “Frustrating season for him coming off of a frustrating second half, and he’s aware of it, we’re all aware of it. We’re all working on it. There was some injuries sprinkled in this year that I think were a factor in him kind of getting out of sync again. We saw flashes of him offensively the way that he can and should be.
“We’re going to work with him to restore his presence in baseball as an All-Star, but he’s going to be front and center as our starting catcher.”
Asked again about Rutschman at the general managers meetings, Elias said, “Adley’s our primary guy.”
Keeping killing any trade rumors that make Samuel Basallo the No. 1.
Gunnar Henderson’s final numbers look pretty good until held up against his 2024 results.
Henderson began the season on the injured list with a right intercostal strain and batted .228/.268/.413 in 23 April games. He finished with a .274/.349/.438 line in 154 games, five fewer than in 2024.
Henderson’s home run total dipped from 37 to 17, his RBIs from 92 to 68, his OPS from .893 to .787, and his bWAR from 9.1 to 5.3.
The Orioles traded for Taylor Ward to supply right-handed power from the outfield, the same reason why they signed Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million contract the previous offseason.
O’Neill did his usual damage on Opening Day and faded, with three different injuries pulling him from the roster. He appeared in only 54 games and batted .199/.292/.392. The same player who hit 31 home runs with the Red Sox in 2024 delivered only nine with the Orioles.
The Orioles became the first team in major league history with six or more players hitting at least 15 home runs and nobody hitting at least 20. They hadn’t completed a season without a 20-homer hitter since 2001.
They can find other ways to win games in 2026, but it becomes easier if O’Neill stays healthy and brings some pop further down the order. Ward and first baseman Pete Alonso can do their damage in the middle.
Reliever Yennier Cano has a lot farther to go after his 2023 All-Star season.
The Orioles optioned Cano to Triple-A Norfolk on June 22 with his ERA at 4.73 in 26 2/3 innings. He finished with a 5.12 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 65 appearances. His bWAR the last three seasons has dipped from 2.4 to 0.9 to minus-0.4. Left-handers hit .330/.410/.538 against him last season.
A new changeup grip late in the summer attracted some media attention, but so did the 4.82 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 10 September games. Can't pretend that the problems had disappeared.
The work will continue with Cano, who has minor league options and only assumptions that he makes the team in spring training. The bullpen got a boost with new closer Ryan Helsley and the return of set-up man Andrew Kittredge, but it looks weaker and more reliant on unproven relievers if Cano doesn’t rebound.
