PLAYER REVIEW: CADE CAVALLI
Age on Opening Day 2026: 27
How acquired: First round pick, 2020 MLB Draft
MLB service time: 2 years, 141 days
2025 salary: $760,200
Contract status: Arbitration-eligible (Super Two), free agent in 2030
2025 stats: 3-1, 4.25 ERA, 10 G, 10 GS, 48 2/3 IP, 57 H, 28 R, 23 ER, 7 HR, 15 BB, 40 SO, 4 HBP, 1.479 WHIP, 97 ERA+, 4.53 FIP, 0.2 bWAR, 0.5 fWAR
Quotable: “I’m just feeling extremely grateful that I'm healthy, and I'm going to have a regular offseason, the first one in three years. I felt like I got a lot better this season. It was really good to get my feet wet up here and hopefully take that and just go get better.” – Cade Cavalli
2025 analysis: Two full years removed from his March 2023 Tommy John surgery, Cavalli had his sights set on finally making it back to the big leagues sometime this season. But before that could happen, he had to prove he was healthy once and for all, then that he could pitch effectively enough at Triple-A to warrant a promotion. The Nationals purposely slow-played it, understanding the right-hander’s workload would have to be limited and wanting to make sure he didn’t have to be shut down in September, thus leaving him to make 15 starts with Rochester before the call finally came in August.
Was it worth the wait? Cavalli’s performances once he arrived suggested it was. With a fastball that averaged 97 mph and reached triple digits, he tossed 4 1/3 scoreless innings in his Aug. 6 debut, then two starts later shut out the Phillies over seven innings for his first career win.
There was one hiccup outing Aug. 27 at Yankee Stadium in which he was roughed up for eight runs in only 2 1/3 innings. (Throw out that one and his season ERA was 3.11.) But Cavalli responded by allowing two or fewer earned runs in four of his final five starts, restricted to five innings and no more than 76 pitches in any of those appearances down the stretch. Most importantly, he went home for the winter fully healthy and able to focus solely on pitching at the major league level for the first time.
2026 outlook: Barring any physical setbacks – and boy would that be devastating given his background – Cavalli will report to spring training at full strength and ready to be a big part of the Opening Day rotation. He has perhaps the best stuff on the Nationals’ staff. Now he just needs to show he can be successful with it over a full big league season.
Though his 10 starts late this season were primarily about keeping him healthy and giving him some experience, Cavalli did show a few things that help us draw some initial conclusions about him as a pitcher. In addition to the elite stuff, he also was a consistent strike thrower: 52.4 percent of his pitches were in the zone (above the MLB average of 48.9 percent) and 66.2 percent of his pitches wound up as strikes (MLB average: 64.2 percent). He walked only 2.8 batters per nine innings. At the same time, Cavalli was able to get hitters to chase with some regularity. They swung at 33.9 percent of pitches outside the zone, well above the MLB average of 28.4 percent.
And yet, Cavalli’s strikeout rate (7.4 per nine innings) ranked in the bottom-third of the league. Much of the contact he gave up was weak (he ranked in the 93rd percentile in ground ball rate) but he did give up more contact than you would expect for someone with his repertoire. Hitters actually were far more successful against his curveball (.351 batting average, .491 slugging percentage) than his fastball (.217 batting average, .400 slugging percent). What does that all mean? He could probably afford to throw a few more pitches outside the zone and hope to get some swings and misses, especially with the curveball.
In the bigger picture, though, there’s a lot to like about Cavalli. It took way longer than anyone hoped, but he’s finally healthy and showing off the stuff that made him a first round pick five years ago. If he can now refine that stuff, be free to go deeper in games and just stay healthy, the Nats may finally have themselves the homegrown frontline starter they’ve long coveted.