How could a slow offseason impact the Orioles?

The offseason feels slow, doesn’t it? Or does it always? 

The free agent market in Major League Baseball, much like the season itself, is more of a slow burn as compared to its football and basketball counterparts. In the National Football League, the biggest deals are often agreed to within the first few days of the signing period. Miraculously, mammoth National Basketball Association contracts are signed within minutes of the official window’s opening. 

Talk about some high-quality negotiation skills. 

We’re nearly two months removed from the start of MLB’s free agency and some of the top names - including Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Framber Valdez - are still available. Just how typical is this shortage of activity, and what could it say about the market moving forward? 

More specifically, with arms like Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen still available, and with the Orioles potentially on the pitching hunt, even after the additions of Shane Baz and Zach Eflin, what could the starting pitching landscape look like for Baltimore as we enter the new year? 

The baseball world waited with bated breath for Juan Soto’s decision last offseason, with the superstar outfielder coming to a decision on December 8, 2024. It overshadowed Willy Adames’ move to the San Francisco Giants, who agreed to a deal with their shortstop of the future the day before. Alex Bregman had to wait much longer for his deal in Boston, signing just a few days before spring training began in mid-February. 

Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, the top starting pitchers available, each inked deals in mid- to late December. Sean Manaea and Nathan Eovaldi, a pair of pitchers that fetched $75 million contracts on the open market, found themselves signed by the year’s end, too. Blake Snell was the only outlier, agreeing to a deal with the Dodgers in late November. 

Perhaps last offseason didn't provide a good blueprint for what to expect, then. Four of the top five pitchers in the class all signed within weeks of each other, with the only deviation coming earlier, not later. This offseason, though, moves have been spread further apart. Dylan Cease reportedly agreed to a deal with the Blue Jays in late November and had to wait nearly a month for another top arm, Michael King, to join him in the “signed” section. 

That previous class had more high-end talent, and thus more high-end earning, too. Maybe that accounts for the difference in market activity? 

Let’s go back to 2023, then, when eight pitchers made at least $50 million on the open market but only two made more than $150 million, a similar range to what we could see in this year's free agent crop. Even then, though, all of the pitchers that fetched between $50 and $200 million were signed in the month of December. 

So it is certainly fair to say that this offseason, especially on the starting pitching front, has been moving slower than usual. 

But what does that mean for the contracts that players will be searching for in the new year? Could the Orioles potentially benefit from a less-than-steady market? 

The examples aren’t plentiful in recent history. Bregman’s February deal with the Red Sox, for three years and $120 million with multiple opt-outs, fell well short of FanGraphs’ projected length of deal but above the projected average annual value. It was the same story for Snell, who had to wait until the 2024 season had nearly begun before agreeing to a similar short-term, high-AAV, opt-out-rich deal with the Giants. 

Perhaps the O’s, then, could employ a similar strategy in targeting a high-end pitcher. 

On the other hand, more recently on the pitching side, Nick Pivetta’s February 2025 signing in San Diego exceeded FanGraphs’ projections in terms of both contract lengths and dollar amounts. That deal, however, is small potatoes compared to the current landscape. 

Dating back to the 2021 offseason, no starting pitcher has signed a contract worth over $100 million after Jan. 1. This level of inactivity, especially for the top available arms, is unmatched this decade. 

The fact is that there is no true blueprint to predict how the offseason will play out moving forward. The market hasn’t behaved like this in recent memory. How that benefits or hurts the Orioles remains to be seen in an unprecedented free agent market.