Looking at some unexpected developments in Orioles' 2025 season

The All-Star Game is a week from today, which is the unofficial halfway point of the season.

The Orioles are playing their 90th game tonight, against the Mets at Camden Yards, to begin their last homestand before the break. They can move eight below .500 for the first time since May 6.

Four days off before another trip to Tampa present an opportunity to process everything that’s happened and wonder exactly how they got to this point. How so many surprises attached to one team like barnacles. 

* Rather than challenge for a division title, the Orioles are stuck in last place.

* Their two best starters are Trevor Rogers and Charlie Morton.

* Their two catchers are Jacob Stallings and Alex Jackson, who arrived within the past two weeks.

* Ramón Laureano is pretty much an everyday outfielder.

* Heston Kjerstad is an everyday outfielder with Triple-A Norfolk.

* Jackson Holliday is tied for the second-most home runs on the team.

* Ryan O’Hearn is the lone All-Star representative, barring a late replacement.

* O’Hearn is the biggest trade chip on the team.

* The injured list now holds 14 players, and 24 have resided on it this season. And this doesn’t include the many times that players were day-to-day, most recently reliever Seranthony Domínguez, who recorded the save Sunday after being unavailable due to back soreness from “sleeping funny,” per interim manager Tony Mansolino.

* Oh yeah, Mansolino is the interim manager. That’s a biggie.

Put it all together and the Orioles began yesterday 7 ½ games back for the last Wild Card. They were seven behind after Sunday’s 2-1 win in Atlanta but lost a little more ground.

A national writer posted Sunday on the former Twitter that the Orioles were “creeping their way” into the Wild Card race. But they’ve been in the 6 ½-7 ½ range for what seems like a couple of months. They were 6 ½ back on June 23. Seven teams remained ahead of them for the final spot yesterday.

That’s an extremely slow creep, undetectable to many of us.  

The trade deadline is July 31, and the decision to buy or sell must be made much earlier in order to launch substantial talks.  

Going back to the above list, Rogers has made five starts since returning to the Orioles and he’s allowed five runs in 28 2/3 innings for a 1.57 ERA. He’s generated a combined 30 whiffs in his last two outings. The velocity fluctuates but he can get outs at any speed, with Sunday serving as a convenient example. There’s little reason to obsess over it unless he experiences a dramatic dip, like Grayson Rodriguez in Fort Myers.

“It’s the most confidence I’ve had consistently in a couple years,” Rogers told the media in Atlanta.

The Marlins visit Camden Yards later this week, marking the return of All-Star outfielder Kyle Stowers and infielder Connor Norby. Rogers will make a start. There’s your storyline.

Morton has whittled his ERA to 5.47 and WHIP to 1.552. The effectiveness has returned to his curveball. He’s allowed 14 earned runs over his last 10 appearances totaling 45 2/3 innings for a 2.76 ERA. And now, in a dramatic turnaround, Morton looks like a possible trade chip following early speculation that he might be washed.

Zach Eflin dragged a 5.95 ERA and 1.435 WHIP onto the injured list, his second stop on it. Cade Povich made his first after compiling a 5.15 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed 22 earned runs (23 total) and 40 hits over 22 1/3 innings in his last five starts to leave his ERA at 4.44. Dean Kremer has hot stretches, with two runs allowed in 17 2/3 innings earlier this month, but the five runs over 4 1/3 innings in Atlanta raised his ERA at 4.53. Brandon Young has a 7.02 ERA and 1.980 WHIP in four major league starts going into tonight’s assignment.

Stallings delivered a big two-run double in the 10th inning Saturday and he singled Sunday to leave his career line at .234/.314/.344 in 10 major league seasons. Jackson, a career .132/.224/.232 hitter in five seasons, will be the 50th player used by the Orioles this season and the sixth catcher to tie the franchise record.

Adley Rutschman (oblique), Gary Sánchez (knee), Maverick Handley (concussion) and Chadwick Tromp (back) are on the injured list. Top prospect Samuel Basallo apparently will stay at Triple-A until later in the summer.

Laureano won’t make the All-Star team unless he’s an injury replacement, but he’s batting .274/.346/.505 with 14 doubles, 10 home runs and a 2.1 bWAR in 62 games, with regular playing time coming due to a hot bat and an Orioles outfield that was decimated by injuries. He's a top three finisher for first-half Most Valuable Oriole.

Kjerstad was optioned June 10, which also created more opportunities for Laureano, and he’s hitting .192/.240/.327 in 54 games with Norfolk. His stay has become more than a reset.

Holliday went 4-for-4 Sunday and provided all of the Orioles’ scoring with a two-run homer, giving him 11 this season to tie O’Hearn for second on the club behind Cedric Mullins’ 13. He finished second in Phase 2 voting among second basemen and wasn’t chosen as a reserve, but the Rays’ Brandon Lowe exited Sunday’s game with left side soreness and Holliday could replace him at the All-Star Game depending on the severity of the injury.

Holliday’s 84 hits are second on the team to Gunnar Henderson’s 86, and his 36 RBIs are second to Mullins’ 41. His 724 OPS is third behind O’Hearn (.839) and Henderson (.778).

O’Hearn is the starting designated hitter for the American League and teams are showing interest as the deadline approaches, with scouts following him and making calls to check on the intangibles. He hit .264 with a .761 OPS in 142 games last season and is batting .287 with an .839 OPS in 76 games this season. He’s only four home runs shy of last year’s career high.

The Orioles are 25-21 under Mansolino and coming off their fourth sweep in 11 series. They need to go on an immediate tear and start leaping over teams, or there will be another entry to the surprise list: Sellers instead of buyers.

* Kremer will pitch for Team Israel in the 2026 World Baseball Classic. He confirmed it yesterday on The Max Mannis Podcast.

* Pitcher Luis F Castillo cleared outright waivers yesterday and accepted an assignment to Norfolk.

Double-A Chesapeake’s Trey Gibson, ranked by MLB Pipeline as the system’s No. 14 prospect and by Baseball America as No. 8, was named Eastern League Pitcher of the Week after allowing one hit in seven scoreless innings in a doubleheader - his first career complete game.

Outfielder Jordan Sanchez, 19, was named the Florida Complex League’s Player of the Month for June after batting .340/.484/.520 with six doubles.

The Orioles promoted Silas Ardoin from Chesapeake to Norfolk yesterday because the Tides also need catchers.

Reliever Nate Webb has returned to Norfolk after 12 appearances with the Baysox.