Notes on arbitration eligibles, Kjerstad’s exit and latest free agent projections
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November 04, 2026 4:00 am
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If the baseball offseason is broken down into segments, the Orioles just moved onto the next one.
They met Tuesday’s deadline on options and qualifying offers. They reconfigured the 40-man roster. And they can get busy figuring out how to fill specific needs until the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement that threatens to put the sport on hold.
We’re halfway through the week, which allows for a quick look back at a few developments.
*The arbitration drama is dead.
The month of October began with seven Orioles qualifying for it, but three non-tender candidates fell off the list.
Outfielder Leody Taveras cleared waivers and elected free agency. MLBTradeRumors.com projected his 2027 salary at $3.7 million and that wasn’t likely to happen with the Orioles.
Reliever Codi Heuer ($1.1 million) cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk. Pitcher Albert Suárez ($1.1 million) cleared again and became a minor league free agent.
He knows the drill. It’s committed to memory.
The Orioles must tender contracts to shortstop Gunnar Henderson ($14.1 million projection), closer Félix Bautista ($2.4 million), outfielder Colton Cowser ($2.2 million) and infielder Jordan Westburg ($1.5 million) by 5 p.m. on Nov. 20. They don’t need salary agreements, but they must make the commitment. And the quartet should remain under team control.
*The Orioles finally conceded that Heston Kjerstad won’t become their everyday right fielder and offensive terror with his elite power.
How much of the blame lies at their feet?
The process of developing Kjerstad was damaged from the start when he was diagnosed with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle. This came after a shortened college season due to the pandemic. And before he was cleared to play and strained his hamstring for the first time in Sarasota.
Health issues would hound him throughout his professional career, and a real turning point was the 97 mph fastball from Clay Holmes that slammed into his helmet on July 12, 2024. Both benches and bullpens cleared before Kjerstad’s head.
His concussion ruined a potential breakthrough season, when he was slashing .314/.417/.529 and might have been done with the Triple-A shuttle.
Kjerstad went on the seven-day injured list, returned for seven games and was out of the majors until Sept. 15 after his symptoms returned. He finished with a .253 average and .745 OPS in 39 games and never got back on the upswing. He made the club last spring but didn’t hit or demonstrate the necessary improvements defensively and went back to Norfolk. An undisclosed illness, first described as fatigue, shut him down again, and a strained hamstring put him on the injured list to begin this season.
The Orioles didn’t recall Kjerstad until Sept. 1 and he spent most of his time on the bench behind Rece Hinds and Christian Franklin. It was over. The second-overall pick in the truncated 2020 draft, called “the best left-handed hitter in the country” by executive vice president Mike Elias, cleared waivers and became a minor league free agent.
“This is a middle-of-the-order bat profile for us,” Elias said on draft night. “This is somebody that’s going to hit for average and power and hit in the middle of our order for a long time while playing a quality right field defense.”
We’ll never know if he would have lived up to expectations without the constant interruptions, but we’re going to find out if another team can get a lot more out of him.
*MLBTradeRumors.com took its turn at ranking free agents and offered predictions on landing spots. Left-hander Trevor Rogers is No. 2 behind lefty Tarik Skubal, who’s projected to earn a nine-year, $425 million salary.
The site tags Rogers with a five-year, $115 million deal and three staffers link him to three different teams – the White Sox, Cubs and Blue Jays. Is five/$115 million too rich for the Orioles, who will learn by Nov. 17 whether he accepted or declined the $23.15 million qualifying offer?
Mark him down as declining.
The Orioles were linked once with right-hander Kevin Gausman (two years, $44 million) and twice with right-hander Nick Martinez (two years, $42 million).
Outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hit the market after the Orioles declined his $20 million buyout, is projected as the No. 43 free agent to receive a one-year, $14 million contract.
None of the other Orioles free agents are in the top 50 and the team isn’t tied to anyone else besides Gausman and Martinez.
Everyone with a pulse knows that the Orioles want more starting pitching. It’s the top item on their list, especially with Rogers and Chris Bassitt becoming free agents.
“Looking for upgrades in the rotation is absolutely on the menu,” Elias said last week.
No need to check around the league or read between the lines. It’s right there.
Also known is their quest to upgrade the outfield unit, however it can be done. They might be able to execute another trade, like they did last offseason by sending Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for Taylor Ward.
Samuel Basallo is the primary catcher with Adley Rutschman gone, but the Orioles will consider other backups beyond Carlos Narváez and newly acquired Zach Morgan. And beyond the Triple-A trio of Creed Willems, Silas Ardoin and Ethan Anderson.
Yohel Pozo became a minor league free agent after clearing waivers. He stayed on the active roster after the Orioles recalled him July 27, though he appeared in only 19 games. Never made much sense to me, but very little does anymore.
Anderson is the No. 16 prospect in the system, per MLB Pipeline, but he needs more time. Willems is 28th. A veteran figures to arrive who is an asset behind the plate but also can provide some offense with Basallo getting starts at designated hitter and first base. Basallo won’t be given a heavy workload.
Talks with executives and agents will heat up next week at the General Managers Meetings in Las Vegas. These sessions are supposed to lay the groundwork for future negotiations, but the sense of urgency might ramp up with the looming lockout that could force the cancellation of the Winter Meetings.
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