masn-baseballs-orioles.jpgJust looking at a stat sheet, Yoenis Cespedes and Adam Jones look like very similar players. If the Orioles signed the free agent outfielder, could they expect Jones-like production from Cespedes?
A look at their career stats:
Jones: .278 average, .319 OBP, .463 slugging, .781 OPS, 109 OPS+ Cespedes: .271 average, .319 OBP, .486 slugging, .805 OPS, 122 OPS+
Both players are 30. Jones has played eight full seasons in the majors and Cespedes has played four full seasons. Jones has topped a .750…

Just looking at a stat sheet, Yoenis Cespedes and Adam Jones look like very similar players. If the Orioles signed the free agent outfielder, could they expect Jones-like production from Cespedes?

A look at their career stats:

Jones: .278 average, .319 OBP, .463 slugging, .781 OPS, 109 OPS+
Cespedes: .271 average, .319 OBP, .486 slugging, .805 OPS, 122 OPS+

Both players are 30. Jones has played eight full seasons in the majors and Cespedes has played four full seasons. Jones has topped a .750 OPS in seven of eight years and topped .800 OPS twice. Cespedes has topped a .750 OPS in three of four years and topped .800 OPS twice.

Here are their averages, per 162 game:

Jones: 30 doubles, four triples, 26 homers, 86 RBIs, 127 strikeouts.
Cespedes: 35 doubles, six triples, 30 homers, 103 RBIs, 143 strikeouts.

Adam Jones back black.jpgBoth players have strong arms and, ironically, they tied for sixth in the majors last year with 13 outfield assists.

Among all outfield regulars over the last four years, Cespedes ranks 15th in OPS at .805 and Jones is at .804 OPS. They are tied for ninth in slugging in that span at .486. Jones ranks fifth among outfielders with 121 home runs since 2012 and Cespedes ranks seventh with 106.

At one point on Friday, a report stated that Cespedes might be deciding between the Orioles’ five-year offer of reportedly $90 million and a one-year deal from the Mets. To me, that is an easy decision. You take the long-term deal, the security it provides and many more guaranteed dollars. If Cespedes signs for a year, thinking he’ll simply re-enter the market next winter, he could get injured and/or have an off year, and the dollars that are there now might not be there then. He’d be leaving a lot of green on the table.

Another key factor: He would likely get a qualifying offer next winter, which he could not get this season as a player that was traded during the season. Those qualifying offers cost the signing teams draft picks and can limit contract offers.

For now, the Orioles’ best play may be to try to finalize a deal with Cespedes and then improve their starting rotation. To do both without giving up the 14th pick in the draft, they probably need to sign one of the pitchers looking for the so-called “pillow” one-year contract, or possibly make a trade for a pitcher. A combination of Cespedes and Mark Trumbo could combine to replace Chris Davis in the homer department. And an outfield featuring Jones and Cespedes sure would top anything the Orioles put out there last year. Let Hyun Soo Kim, Nolan Reimold or even Dariel Alvarez man the third spot. Perhaps the O’s still pursue Pedro Alvarez to add a lefty bat.

Cespedes, a pitcher and play ball. What are your thoughts?