masn-baseballs-orioles.jpgSARASOTA, Fla. – Miguel Gonzalez makes his third Grapefruit League start today, as the Orioles travel to Clearwater to play the Phillies.
Gonzalez has faced the Blue Jays twice this spring and allowed two runs and four hits over five innings. He still hasn’t issued a walk.
The Phillies are starting left-hander Cole Hamels unless he’s traded within the next few hours. You never know.
Orioles manager Buck Showalter said his rotation to start the regular season will be arranged based on…

SARASOTA, Fla. – Miguel Gonzalez makes his third Grapefruit League start today, as the Orioles travel to Clearwater to play the Phillies.

Gonzalez has faced the Blue Jays twice this spring and allowed two runs and four hits over five innings. He still hasn’t issued a walk.

The Phillies are starting left-hander Cole Hamels unless he’s traded within the next few hours. You never know.

Orioles manager Buck Showalter said his rotation to start the regular season will be arranged based on matchups. I’m guessing he means beyond Chris Tillman, who figures to take the mound for the April 6 opener against the Rays at Tropicana Field.

Let’s take a look at the career stats of the six candidates against the Rays and Blue Jays, who provide the opposition for the first series at Camden Yards from April 10-12. It’s worth including some of the day-night stats. Only three of the first six games are under the lights.

Also, keep in mind that the Orioles are off April 9 – that’s my travel day back to Baltimore – which could impact how Showalter sets up the rotation.

tillman-pitching-alds-white-sidebar.pngTillman is 4-6 with a 4.08 ERA in 14 starts against the Rays and 1-2 with a 3.41 ERA in five starts at Tropicana Field. He’s 4-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 14 starts against the Blue Jays.

Wei-Yin Chen is 3-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 13 starts against the Rays and 1-2 with a 2.79 ERA in seven starts at Tropicana Field. He’s 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in four starts against the Blue Jays.

Bud Norris is 1-2 with a 4.62 ERA in seven games (six starts) against the Rays and 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three games (two starts) at Tropicana Field. He’s 4-0 with a 2.36 ERA in six starts against the Blue Jays.

Norris is 11-21 with a 4.72 ERA in 43 day games and 42-26 with a 4.07 ERA in 115 night games.

Would Showalter prefer to hold back Norris until the Blue Jays series?

Gonzalez is 4-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 11 starts against the Rays and 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA in five starts at Tropicana Field. He’s 6-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) against the Blue Jays.

In a strange twist, Gonzalez has identical 3.45 ERAs in day and night games.

Ubaldo Jimenez is 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA in five starts against the Rays and 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two starts at Tropicana Field. He’s 3-3 with a 4.63 ERA in nine games (eight starts) against the Blue Jays.

Jimenez owns a 3.80 ERA in 156 day games and a 4.41 ERA in 81 night games.

Kevin Gausman is 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts against the Rays and 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts at Tropicana Field, with two runs allowed and 12 strikeouts in 13 innings. He’s 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA in five games (two starts) against the Blue Jays.

Gausman is 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA in nine starts at night and 2-6 with a 4.23 ERA in 11 starts during the day.

The Yankees follow the Blue Jays into Camden Yards. Tillman is 5-5 with a 4.96 ERA in 14 starts against them, Chen is 2-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine starts, Norris is 4-0 with a 2.74 ERA in four starts, Gonzalez is 2-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 10 starts, Jimenez is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA in seven starts, and Gausman is 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA in eight games (three starts).

Armed with this information, give me the order of your five starters. And, yes, let me know what you’re doing with the sixth guy.