Recent strategies to upgrade and strengthen the Orioles’ rotation have consisted of making trades, signing veterans to one-year deals and offering contract extensions to keep talented arms in their grasp. Doling out big bucks in free agency isn’t the norm after the last couple of attempts netted only disappointment.

Tarik Skubal is the big fish and probably impossible for the Orioles to reel in if reports of an anticipated record-setting agreement are accurate. Or anything close to them. The rest of the field isn’t deep in aces but still has some expensive alternatives.

Trevor Rogers is expected to decline the $23.15 million qualifying offer, but the Orioles can negotiate and hope for an outcome that works for both sides. They also can delve into the trade market to perhaps land the latest version of Corbin Burnes, who was acquired from the Brewers on Feb. 1, 2024 for reliever DL Hall, infielder Joey Ortiz and a Competitive Balance pick.

Burnes did his job atop the rotation, going 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 32 outings and starting for the American League in the All-Star Game. He finished fifth in Cy Young voting.

And then, he was gone.

Burnes wanted to pitch closer to his Arizona home and the Diamondbacks obliged with a six-year, $210 million contract. He underwent Tommy John surgery six months later.

Rogers emerged as the Opening Day starter this year after the Orioles acquired him from the Marlins at the 2024 deadline. Zach Eflin was No. 1 in 2025 after the Orioles snagged him from the Rays at the previous deadline. Kyle Bradish arrived in 2019 as part of the Dylan Bundy trade with the Angels and finished fourth in Cy Young voting in ’23, but he was a prospect. The Orioles are aiming much higher.

Bradish received a five-year, $90 million extension in July. Shane Baz agreed to a five-year, $68 million extension in March after the Orioles acquired him from the Rays three months earlier for four minor leaguers and a Competitive Balance Round A pick. They’re locks for next season’s rotation, with Brandon Young earning the right to join them.

Assuming that Skubal is an unreasonable target, other free agents who could entice include Freddy Peralta, Michael King and Sonny Gray, along with next-tier guys like Nick Martinez, Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga, Foster Griffin, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize. Manager Craig Albernaz could campaign for Shane Bieber, a former standout with the Guardians.

Different ownership has created more distance between the Orioles and their failed signings of the past.

The largest contract for a pitcher in free agency goes to Alex Cobb, who signed for $57 million over four years in March 2018. The Orioles also were negotiating with Lance Lynn, who joined the Twins on a one-year, $12 million deal.

Cobb got a late start, reporting to the minors to build up his arm, and couldn’t stay healthy over his three seasons. He appeared in 41 games, sidelined by groin and lumbar strains, hip pain, blisters and an undisclosed reason during the 2020 COVID season, and he registered a 5.10 ERA and 1.419 WHIP.

Next is Ubaldo Jiménez, who signed a four-year, $50 million contract in February 2014. It didn’t work out, to put it mildly. Jiménez, who joins Cobb as two of the nicest guys to ever wear a uniform, became a target of angry fans while posting a 5.22 ERA and 1.496 WHIP in 117 games (104 starts).

Jiménez was the winning pitcher in the “Clinchmas” game against the Blue Jays in 2014, but he also surrendered the walk-off home run to Edwin Encarnación in the 11th inning of the 2016 Wild Card game at Rogers Centre.

I cut him some slack for that misstep. He never should have been used in relief in that situation. And the image of catcher Matt Wieters bolting upright from his crouch and spinning toward the dugout at the moment of contact will stay with me forever. But I digress …

Before Jiménez, the Orioles didn’t hand out a guaranteed contract of at least four years to any pitcher. They definitely chose the wrong time to buck a trend.

The recent extensions signal a change in organizational philosophy under control owner David Rubenstein, but how far would he go to upgrade the rotation? We already know the cost of a star first baseman.

President of baseball operations Mike Elias and the rest of the Orioles’ contingent will depart the GM Meetings in Las Vegas later today. Elias arrived Monday morning and said the group has met with “every major agency.”

“We’ve probably had 12 or 15 in-person meetings with the agencies,” Elias said last night, adding that they’ve also been in contact with other executives, much of it via text messaging. “This is a really good event for us to have in-person dialogues with agents and lay groundwork, and all the signings that we’ve made the past several years, that groundwork’s typically been laid at this event, so it’s important for us.”

It also can provide some clarity on how the free agent and trade markets will play out, and in this case, whether the probability of a lockout might hasten activity in the next few weeks.

“We’re proceeding as normal and with our ownership group being so supportive, we’re ready for immediate activity if it comes about,” Elias said. “Now, there’s a very deep market, especially with starting pitchers this year, so we’re having a lot of players to work through and get a sense of the market and talk about, but I think it’s very possible that there’s activity as soon as we get out of here.”

Elias is referring to both free agency and trades, but he especially likes the value and quantity in the former while searching for rotation help.

“We’re making sure to connect with everybody that we have interest in,” he said.

Rogers is in play, and the Orioles are waiting for his qualifying offer decision to become official by 4 p.m. Tuesday.

“We’re remaining in contact with them,” Elias said. “We would love for him to come back.”

Nothing changed with the shopping list on the trip to Las Vegas. Multiple starting pitchers would be ideal, along with a left-hander for the bullpen, an outfielder who’s an upgrade offensively and defensively, and another catcher to compete for the backup job. Carlos Narváez would be the likely choice if the season began today.

“Right now on the position player side, the infield feels deeper and stronger than the outfield right now to us,” Elias said. “We are comfortable with our main catching tandem, but it’s an area that we can reinforce if we find something that we like.”

Trading an infielder is one way to fill a hole on the roster, but Elias isn’t pressured to do anything with the unit.

“I think the way that I would characterize it is, I think we’ve got a real strong infield,” he said. “We don’t view it as a surplus or a crunch. I think we view it as good depth. It’s something that we could roll into the season. I don’t think it’s overcrowded. But we are in a position where we can entertain trading from that group, and we’re getting inquiries on that front and we’re not closing them off. But we’re also fine keeping all these guys. We like the players and we could make it work if the entirety of this infield group is with us when we get to Sarasota.”

Jordan Westburg is expected to be fine for the start of spring training after undergoing elbow-reconstructive surgery in May and missing the entire season. The same is true with second baseman Jackson Holliday after his procedure in late September to repair a partial triangular fibrocartilage complex tear.

“We don’t have any frontline major league players who are delayed or projected to be delayed,” Elias said, also including starters Kyle Bradish (sports hernia) and Cade Povich (elbow) in his update.

“All four guys are projected to be on time,” Elias said. “It’s a little hokey, but I use the term ‘normal citizen’ on Day 1 of spring training.”

Teams are doing their due diligence by checking on Gunnar Henderson’s availability, but the Orioles intend to keep their starting shortstop while counting on his increased production at the plate.

“Obviously, that’s a huge factor for us,” Elias said. “There’s nobody that we’re more confident in than him in terms of getting prepared over the offseason. I know he’s done a great job of posting the last couple years, but he’s really been kind of dinged up, and I think he’s got some tweaks that he’s identified that we should see him make. So I think he’s gonna have a great season for us.

“We have a lot of players that we are in no way motivated nor wanting nor expecting to move, but you know, at the early part of the offseason we’re gathering as much information as possible and that involves talking to people and listening to them.”