Reexamining Eflin's impact on Orioles' roster plans

Done after depth?

This is just one of the lingering questions after the Orioles brought back Zach Eflin on a one-year, $10 million contract Sunday with a mutual option for 2027.

President of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias has negotiated with some of the top starters on the free agent market, including Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez. He alluded to the possibility, or maybe it was likelihood, of another big acquisition following first baseman Pete Alonso, who received $155 million over five seasons in the second-largest deal in franchise history.

Eflin isn’t that guy. He won’t reprise his role as 2025 Opening Day starter. He might not be ready on that date after undergoing a lumbar microdiscectomy on Aug. 18 to cure the persistent lower-back pain that accounted for the last two of his three trips to the injured list last season.

Elias wanted to strengthen the back end of the rotation and give manager Craig Albernaz more options following a season when the Orioles used a franchise-record 70 players and 41 different pitchers, the organization’s second-highest total. Left unspoken for now is whether Elias shifts his full attention to the bullpen and potential role players or continues his pursuit of a potential No. 1 or 2 starter.

The payroll can handle it. The roster would make room for it.

Eflin’s contract puts the club about $13 million below where it finished in 2025. Not that money really matters that much, right? The Orioles aren’t spending like the Dodgers and Yankees, but they’ll remind everyone again that they have no financial constraints. Dollars fuel the liftoff.

The latest example is Eflin. When did you imagine the Orioles spending a guaranteed $10 million on one player to improve their depth?

The roster is a separate topic. If Eflin begins the season on the injured list, the Orioles probably field a rotation of Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells from their current group of candidates. Eflin’s return probably would bump Wells to the bullpen again, where he could fill a variety of roles. He’s closed and he’s been a consumer of innings. He could set up for Ryan Helsley or work in a swingman role, which also might be Albert Suárez’s calling after he signed a minor league deal.

The complication, which the Orioles happily will tackle, is another newcomer joining the staff. If Elias isn’t done shopping, they could end up with five starters in March, plus Wells in the bullpen and Eflin on the injured list.  Now, let’s say Eflin is ready to be reinstated early in the season – again, assuming that he stays back in Sarasota. The Orioles aren’t going with a six-man rotation. They aren’t messing with Bradish, Rogers and Baz. Kremer led the team in innings last season with 171 2/3 and has ranked in the top three in each of the past four years.

You’re gonna put a workhorse in a ‘pen?

Kremer comes as close to that description as anyone on the staff.

Guess what? The Orioles will deal with it later. They’ll never step into the trap of having “too much pitching,” because it doesn’t exist. That’s a myth with steel teeth.

The 1,804 player games spent on the IL last season ranked second in the American League behind the Astros and fourth in the majors. Bradish’s only full season is 2023 with 30 starts, and he went on the injured list after his first outing with a bruised foot. Rogers made only 18 starts last season due to a knee injury and time spent at Triple-A. Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2022, missed the 2023 season and made 14 starts in 2024. Wells underwent his second reconstructive elbow surgery in 2024 and has made seven appearances in the last two seasons.

The Orioles didn’t let the number of first basemen stop them from signing Alonso and they aren’t letting the number of starters dissuade them from making other moves. Either they will sort it out or fate will do it for them.

You can probably forget Eflin going to the bullpen. He’s done it only 12 times out of 200 major league appearances over 10 seasons. His track record should shield him from it. There would have to be some extenuating circumstances.

“I don’t think any of that conversation’s been had,” he said in yesterday’s video call. “I plan to start. I’m a starter. I’m gonna train to show up as a starter and that’s kind of how I’ve always been. But if there’s conversations to be had, I’m sure we’re going to have that in the future. But as of now, I’m gearing up plenty ready to be a starter and that’s the mindset.”

Eflin wants redemption after last summer’s miserable performance and health, which clearly were linked.

“I think I would be lying if I said ‘no,’” he said.

“Kind of going back to the loyalty thing, these guys wanted me back after missing all those starts and having an arm injury and having a back surgery. I get a chance to go back and show what I really am, and that's what I'm really excited for. I'm excited to go out and compete with these guys and be healthy and just be competitive with them, because that's what it's all about is being around the guys and being competitive. 

“I'm just thankful for the opportunity to come back and, it was weighing on me all offseason and throughout the process of getting surgery. It's hard to not feel like I let people down, and to be on the other side of that, to feel as good as I do and to have the chance to come back is just such a blessing.”