OK, it’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for. No, not the naming of the Nationals’ new president of baseball operations. Not the hiring of a new manager. And certainly not the signing of any core young player to a long-term extension. It’s the revisiting of our annual Opening Day predictions!
For 16 years now, my colleagues on the Nats beat have been gracious enough to join me in making all sorts of predictions about the upcoming season. And for 16 years now, we’ve all mostly been embarrassed to look back at all the predictions we got wrong, with an occasional celebration over something one of us actually got right.
The 2025 season did not play out how anyone expected, I think that’s safe to say. But within the big picture, we did come close to getting a few smaller items correct. Right or wrong, it’s not only tradition to publish these traditions on Opening Day. It’s also tradition to republish them at the end of the season, which we now present behind covered eyes and ears …
WHICH NATIONALS WILL BE SELECTED FOR THE ALL-STAR GAME?
Bobby Blanco (MASNsports.com) – MacKenzie Gore, James Wood
Jessica Camerato (MLB.com) – Luis García Jr., James Wood
Al Galdi (Nats Chat Podcast) – MacKenzie Gore, James Wood
Andrew Golden (Washington Post) – Michael Soroka, James Wood
Craig Heist (106.7 The Fan) – CJ Abrams, James Wood
Chelsea Janes (Washington Post) – Luis García Jr., MacKenzie Gore
Bill Ladson (MLB.com honorary) – MacKenzie Gore, James Wood
Tim Shovers (Nats Chat Podcast) – MacKenzie Gore
Spencer Nusbaum (Washington Post) – Luis García Jr., James Wood
Mark Zuckerman (MASNsports.com) – CJ Abrams, James Wood
Correct answer: MacKenzie Gore and James Wood each earned the first All-Star selections of their careers thanks to dominant first halves … which they could not sustain over the second half.
Winner: Every single one of us had either Wood or Gore making the All-Star team. But only three of the 10 participants correctly had both of them making it: Bobby Blanco, Al Galdi and Bill Ladson. Great job, guys!
WHAT WILL TOTAL ATTENDANCE BE AT NATIONALS PARK?
Bill Ladson – 2,200,000
Craig Heist – 2,100,000
Bobby Blanco – 2,033,963
Al Galdi – 2,020,000
Spencer Nusbaum – 2,002,009
Tim Shovers – 2,000,021
Chelsea Janes – 1,999,999
Jessica Camerato – 1,986,320
Andrew Golden – 1,954,272
Mark Zuckerman – 1,927,685
Correct answer: The Nationals drew a grand total of 1,916,768 fans to the ballpark this season, an average of 23,664 fans per game, which ranked 22nd in the majors. That was down slightly from last year’s total of 1,967,302 (which was an average of 24,288, also 22nd in the majors).
Winner: Well, well, well. Look at what we have here. Your humble beat writer had the lowest attendance prediction of anyone. And though I still guessed a little bit too high, I only missed by 10,917, smaller than the Nats’ smallest crowd of the year (11,190 on Sept. 3 vs. the Marlins).
HOW MANY HOME RUNS WILL JAMES WOOD HIT?
Al Galdi – 35
Spencer Nusbaum – 30
Mark Zuckerman – 28
Chelsea Janes – 27
Andrew Golden – 26
Bobby Blanco – 25
Craig Heist – 25
Bill Ladson – 25
Tim Shovers – 22
Jessica Camerato – 21
Correct answer: When he reached the All-Star break with 24 homers, Wood looked like he would threaten 40 for the season. But then he slumped badly, needing a late surge just to finish at 31 homers.
Winner: We all assumed we’d all come up short, given Wood’s fantastic first half. But in the end, he came back to the pack, with Spencer Nusbaum missing the final total by only one homer.
WHAT WILL DYLAN CREWS’ OPS BE?
Tim Shovers – .893
Al Galdi – .812
Mark Zuckerman – .804
Bobby Blanco – .793
Jessica Camerato – .790
Chelsea Janes – .775
Spencer Nusbaum – .773
Craig Heist – .767
Andrew Golden – .763
Bill Ladson – .645
Correct answer: Crews got off to a slow start, was just starting to get hot when he strained his oblique in late May, then had some moments after returning in August, but not enough to sustain any real production. He finished with a disappointing OPS of .631.
Winner: We all though Bill Ladson was crazy – which, to be honest, we generally think about him on any subject – when his OPS prediction for Crews was more than 100 points lower than anyone else. But he got the last laugh in the end as the only predictor even in the correct neighborhood.
WHAT WILL CJ ABRAMS’ COMBINED HOME RUN AND STOLEN BASE TOTAL BE?
Mark Zuckerman – 65
Andrew Golden – 64
Bobby Blanco – 60
Spencer Nusbaum – 56
Jessica Camerato – 55
Al Galdi – 55
Chelsea Janes – 55
Tim Shovers – 55
Craig Heist – 53
Bill Ladson – 50
Correct answer: Like several of his teammates, Abrams enjoyed a big first half (12 homers, 20 steals) and looked like he’d be on pace for a big combined total. But like several of his teammates, he cooled off dramatically in the second half and finished with 19 homers and 31 steals, nearly identical to his 2024 totals (20 homers, 31 steals).
Winner: Once again, Ladson was the low man in this category. And once again, he was proven right.
HOW MANY BASES WILL JACOB YOUNG STEAL?
Al Galdi – 44
Bobby Blanco – 43
Jessica Camerato – 37
Craig Heist – 35
Chelsea Janes – 35
Bill Ladson – 35
Andrew Golden – 32
Mark Zuckerman – 27
Spencer Nusbaum – 25
Tim Shovers – 23
Correct answer: It was a rough season for Young at the plate and on the bases. Because of that, he saw his playing time decrease from 521 plate appearances last year to only 364 this year. Even so, it was surprising to see him finish with only 15 stolen bases while getting thrown out a league-high 11 times.
Winner: Yet another instance in which everybody’s predicted total was too high. (Sense a recurring theme here about the 2025 Nats?) Tim Shovers came closest, but he still overshot Young’s stolen base total by 53 percent.
RANK THESE PLAYERS FROM HIGHEST TO LOWEST OPS: JOSH BELL, PAUL DeJONG, LUIS GARCIA JR., NATHANIEL LOWE, KEIBERT RUIZ
Al Galdi – García, Lowe, Ruiz, Bell, DeJong
Spencer Nusbaum – García, Lowe, Bell, DeJong, Ruiz
Tim Shovers – García, Lowe, Bell, DeJong, Ruiz
Andrew Golden – García, Lowe, DeJong, Ruiz, Bell
Chelsea Janes – García, Lowe, DeJong, Bell, Ruiz
Bill Ladson – Lowe, DeJong, Bell, García, Ruiz
Jessica Camerato – Lowe, García, Bell, DeJong, Ruiz
Mark Zuckerman – Lowe, Bell, García, Ruiz, DeJong
Bobby Blanco – Bell, Lowe, Ruiz, García, DeJong
Craig Heist – Bell, García, Ruiz, DeJong, Lowe
Correct answer: Why do they play the full 162 games? Because they all count the same, and just because someone was overperforming or underperforming in May, that doesn’t mean they won’t ultimately find their usual level by season’s end. Sure enough, Josh Bell turned his season around enough to get his OPS all the way up to a very respectable .747 in the end. He was followed by Luis Garcia Jr. (.701), Nathaniel Lowe (.665), Paul DeJong (.642) and the unfortunately oft-injured Keibert Ruiz (.595).
Winner: Nobody got all five guys in the correct order, which is a tall task. Craig Heist did successfully get Bell and Garcia in the top two spots, though he messed up the rest of his order. Jessica Camerato got three of the five in the correct spot, but she had Bell and Lowe flip-flopped. We’ll give this category to Heisty.
WHEN WILL BRADY HOUSE MAKE HIS MLB DEBUT?
Tim Shovers – June 3 vs. Cubs
Bobby Blanco – July 1 vs. Tigers
Mark Zuckerman – July 1 vs. Tigers
Al Galdi – July 4 vs. Red Sox
Jessica Camerato – Aug. 1 vs. Brewers
Andrew Golden – Aug. 1 vs. Brewers
Craig Heist – Aug. 12 at Royals
Spencer Nusbaum – Aug. 15 vs. Phillies
Bill Ladson – Sept. 1 vs. Marlins
Chelsea Janes – Sept. 2 vs. Marlins
Correct answer: Paul DeJong’s facial fractures and Jose Tena’s struggles prompted the Nationals to promote Brady House from Triple-A Rochester a bit sooner than expected: June 16, when he debuted against the Rockies by going 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout.
Winner: Only one person had House debuting in June (Tim Shovers), but he was off by 13 days. The dynamic duo from MASNsports.com both had him debuting July 1, which was off by 18 days. So, Tim gets the win.
WHEN WILL ROBERT HASSELL III MAKE HIS MLB DEBUT?
Tim Shovers – May 5 vs. Guardians
Bobby Blanco – May 9 vs. Cardinals
Chelsea Janes – May 20 vs. Braves
Bill Ladson – June 1 at Diamondbacks
Craig Heist – June 1 at Diamondbacks
Spencer Nusbaum – June 15 vs. Marlins
Jessica Camerato – July 18 vs. Padres
Mark Zuckerman – July 18 vs. Padres
Andrew Golden – July 21 vs. Reds
Al Galdi – Aug. 2 vs. Brewers
Correct answer: When Dylan Crews went down with an oblique strain in late-May, the Nationals promoted Hassell from Triple-A Rochester to replace him. That was May 22, when he debuted with two hits, two runs and a stolen base against the Braves.
Winner: Chelsea Janes may be a national writer as opposed to a Nationals writer, but she still closely follows this franchise. And she missed Hassell’s debut by only two days. Nicely done.
WHO WILL LEAD THE PITCHING STAFF IN WINS? HOW MANY?
Bill Ladson – MacKenzie Gore, 16
Al Galdi – MacKenzie Gore, 14
Craig Heist – MacKenzie Gore, 13
Bobby Blanco – Jake Irvin, 13
Jessica Camerato – MacKenzie Gore, 12
Tim Shovers – MacKenzie Gore, 12
Andrew Golden – Michael Soroka, 12
Mark Zuckerman – Jake Irvin, 12
Chelsea Janes – Mitchell Parker, 11
Spencer Nusbaum – MacKenzie Gore, 10
Correct answer: The two best starting pitchers on the staff (MacKenzie Gore, Brad Lord) only won five games a piece. Even reliever Jorge Lopez, who was released at the end of May, finished with six. The top winners on the staff? That would be the two pitchers who had the worst ERAs among all qualified major league starters: Mitchell Parker (5.68) and Jake Irvin (5.70), each with nine wins.
Winner: Everyone predicted at least 10 wins for someone on the staff. Spencer Nusbaum had the lowest number at 10, but he picked the wrong guy. Chelsea Janes had one of the right guys (Parker) but two too many wins. I had one of the right guys (Irvin) but three too many wins. We’ll give a partial victory here to Chelsea.
HOW MANY STRIKEOUTS WILL MACKENZIE GORE RECORD?
Bobby Blanco – 213
Tim Shovers – 203
Andrew Golden – 202
Bill Ladson – 200
Mark Zuckerman – 198
Craig Heist – 195
Chelsea Janes – 194
Jessica Camerato – 191
Al Galdi – 190
Spencer Nusbaum – 190
Correct answer: Gore appeared well on his way to a 200-plus-strikeout season … until he labored through the second half. (Again, have you picked up on the recurring theme here?) So after all that, he finished with 185 strikeouts, still a nice total but not the elite number he looked like he’d reach earlier in the year.
Winner: Everybody overshot Gore’s final total – recurring them alert! – but Al Galdi and Spencer Nusbaum did come pretty close, overshooting by only five strikeouts a piece. That’s a good job.
RANK THESE PITCHERS FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST ERA: MACKENZIE GORE, JAKE IRVIN, MICHAEL SOROKA, TREVOR WILLIAMS
Al Galdi – Gore, Irvin, Williams, Soroka
Bill Ladson – Gore, Irvin, Williams, Soroka
Tim Shovers – Gore, Irvin, Williams, Soroka
Bobby Blanco – Gore, Irvin, Soroka, Williams
Andrew Golden – Gore, Soroka, Irvin, Williams
Spencer Nusbaum – Gore, Soroka, Irvin, Williams
Chelsea Janes – Gore, Soroka, Williams, Irvin
Jessica Camerato – Soroka, Gore, Irvin, Williams
Craig Heist – Soroka, Gore, Williams, Irvin
Mark Zuckerman – Williams, Gore, Irvin, Soroka
Correct answer: Not that any of these guys had what would be considered a good ERA, but here’s the order they finished in: Gore (4.17), Soroka (4.87, before he was traded to the Cubs), Irvin (5.70), Williams (6.21, before he suffered a major elbow injury)
Winner: Did the Washington Post know something the rest of us didn’t? Both Andrew Golden and Spencer Nusbaum were all over this one, nailing all four pitchers in the correct order.
OUTSIDE OF THAT GROUP, WHO WILL MAKE THE MOST STARTS FOR THE NATS?
Bobby Blanco – Mitchell Parker
Jessica Camerato – Mitchell Parker
Al Galdi – Mitchell Parker
Andrew Golden – Mitchell Parker
Craig Heist – Mitchell Parker
Chelsea Janes – Mitchell Parker
Spencer Nusbaum – Mitchell Parker
Tim Shovers – Mitchell Parker
Bill Ladson – Brad Lord
Mark Zuckerman – Cade Cavalli
Correct answer: Parker not only made the Opening Day rotation. He made 30 starts before finally getting bumped to the bullpen in late-September.
Winner: Eight of our contestants took the simple (and ultimately correct) route, picking Parker. But I think the two of us who went out on a limb deserve a little credit, because Lord did make 19 starts (fourth-most on the team) and Cavalli made 10 starts (seventh-most on the team).
HOW MANY SAVES WILL KYLE FINNEGAN HAVE FOR THE NATS? HOW MANY BLOWN SAVES?
Craig Heist – 36, 4
Mark Zuckerman – 36, 5
Tim Shovers – 34, 7
Bobby Blanco – 33, 3
Jessica Camerato – 31, 6
Bill Ladson – 30, 5
Al Galdi – 25, 7
Spencer Nusbaum – 21, 4
Andrew Golden – 15, 3
Chelsea Janes – 10, 5
Correct answer: If we’re counting Finnegan’s full season totals, he finished with 24 saves and seven blown saves. But if we’re only counting his totals for the Nationals (which the question clearly specifies), the numbers drop to 20 saves and six blown saves.
Winner: Spencer Nusbaum, who had himself a nice overall season, came closest with his prediction of 21 saves. Jessica Camerato was the only one to correctly predict six blown saves.
HOW MANY INNINGS WILL DEREK LAW PITCH FOR THE NATS?
Bobby Blanco – 95
Craig Heist – 82
Bill Ladson – 80
Mark Zuckerman – 75 2/3
Tim Shovers – 73
Jessica Camerato – 70 1/3
Al Galdi – 63
Andrew Golden – 62 2/3
Chelsea Janes – 58
Spencer Nusbaum – 45
Correct answer: One year after totaling a remarkable 90 innings out of the bullpen, Law set out to approach that lofty number again this year. And he proceeded to … come up 90 innings short. He never did pitch in the major leagues, sidelined by a lingering arm injury that eventually was diagnosed as a partially torn flexor tendon.
Winner: A frustrating season for Law was a frustrating season for all of us, who never envisioned a dramatic drop-off to that extent.
WHO WILL HIT THE MOST HOMERS AGAINST THE NATIONALS? HOW MANY?
Bill Ladson – Juan Soto, 12
Jessica Camerato – Juan Soto, 8
Bobby Blanco – Juan Soto, 6
Al Galdi – Juan Soto, 6
Andrew Golden – Juan Soto, 5
Tim Shovers – Bryce Harper, 5
Craig Heist – Pete Alonso, 5
Chelsea Janes – Austin Riley, 4
Spencer Nusbaum – Jurickson Profar, 4
Mark Zuckerman – Ronald Acuña Jr., 4
Correct answer: This was a fun race to monitor (well, not necessarily for the Nats, who were torched by several NL East sluggers). In the end, three different players from within the division each hit five homers against them this season: the Mets’ Brandon Nimmo, the Braves’ Matt Olson and the Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber.
Winner: Even though we all picked players from within the NL East, none of us actually picked any of the three guys who did lead the way. That almost seems impossible to believe, especially with Schwarber and Olson’s well-established pedigrees.
HOW WILL THE NL EAST FINISH FROM TOP TO BOTTOM?
Jessica Camerato – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Chelsea Janes – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Spencer Nusbaum – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Andrew Golden – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Tim Shovers – Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
Bobby Blanco – Braves, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins
Mark Zuckerman – Braves, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins
Al Galdi – Braves, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Marlins
Bill Ladson – Braves, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Marlins
Craig Heist – Mets, Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Marlins
Correct answer: What looked it would be a compelling race at the outset, with three strong candidates to win the division, never came to fruition. The injury-plagued Braves fell apart and stunningly finished fourth, behind the Marlins. The Mets were one of the worst teams in baseball from mid-June through the end, finishing second but missing the playoffs. The Nationals were in the basement nearly the entire way. And the Phillies coasted to the NL East title, winning by a whopping 13 games.
Winner: Well, as you can see, nine of the 10 of us were sure the Braves were going to win the division. That didn’t come close to happening. Craig Heist at least was down on Atlanta, but he was too high on New York and whiffed on that one. And everybody had Miami dead-last, never believing the fish would actually finish third. Major fail all around.
HOW MANY GAMES WILL THE NATIONALS WIN?
Al Galdi – 82
Bill Ladson – 81
Bobby Blanco – 79
Craig Heist – 79
Mark Zuckerman – 79
Jessica Camerato – 77
Spencer Nusbaum – 77
Tim Shovers – 77
Andrew Golden – 76
Chelsea Janes – 75
Correct answer: Remember when the Nats went 15-12 in May, got to within two games of the .500 mark and looked like they might actually take a big step forward in their rebuild? Yeah, that didn’t happen. They went a combined 25-53 from June through August, and that left them in the end with a hugely disappointing record of 66-96.
Winner: As the great Ildemaro Vargas would say …”Yeah, right!”