Thoughts on Verlander report and Orioles' rotation

Any smart executive has a fallback option, and for Orioles president of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias, it’s about his starting rotation and whether he can land an ace.

Would he really pivot to a soon-to-be 43-year-old future Hall of Famer?

Would a section of the fan base lose its collective minds?

The Athletic reported Friday that Elias is expressing interest in Justin Verlander, though it came with the caveat that a deal “is not close.” That part wasn’t in the headline but it appeared in the third paragraph.

Unanswered is the exact level of this interest and whether it’s tire kicking or talks that could advance to a much more serious stage.

What’s known is that Elias is aiming much higher and has been doing so since the start of free agency. And the Orioles remain in the mix for Framber Valdez, the top starter on the board and a legitimate No. 1.

Valdez is the game-changer who would make the Orioles a much more legitimate World Series threat, stacking an ace on top of Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Dean Kremer and Zach Eflin when he’s ready.

That’s six. Tyler Wells is seven. And that’s a “problem” for later.

Verlander used to be that guy as a three-time Cy Young winner and a Most Valuable Player. He’s also been a Cy Young runner-up three times and he finished third in 2009 and fifth in 2007 and ’17.

Glory days will pass you by, and Verlander’s last award was in 2022. That’s also the last of his nine All-Star selections. He posted a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts with the Astros in 2024, but he made 29 starts last season with the Giants and had a 3.85 ERA in 152 innings.

His ERA was 2.99 in 14 starts after the break and 2.08 in five September appearances.

As pointed out in an MLBTradeRumors.com article, Verlander’s 11 percent swinging strike rate was his highest since ‘22. His fastball averaged 94 mph.

Fresh in the Orioles’ minds are the 10 strikeouts in five scoreless innings against them on Aug. 31. He followed with six scoreless in St. Louis, one run in seven innings against the Dodgers and seven scoreless in Arizona. The heck with retirement. 

The strikes against Verlander are the comparisons to Valdez and Ranger Suárez, also pursued by the Orioles before he signed with the Red Sox, and to Elias’ recent veteran acquisitions like now 42-year-old Charlie Morton and 38-year-old Kyle Gibson. But Verlander is the much more decorated pitcher, including his 82.2 bWAR over 20 seasons, compared to Morton’s 18.5 in 18 seasons and Gibson’s 14.3 in 13. He had the strong second half, suggesting that there’s more in the tank.

And of course, Verlander has ties to Elias from their days in Houston.

Perhaps the interest makes more sense if Verlander is the earlier signing – say, instead of Eflin – and the hunt continues for a 1 or 2. Otherwise, he’s the high-profile depth move with the possibility of becoming much more in the Orioles’ bounce back season.

He’s also a harder sell to fans who wake up each day waiting for positive Valdez news, especially after missing out on Suárez. And with all of the rumors tying the Orioles to some of the top trade targets.

Bradish works as the No. 1. Having him for a full season also is a game-changer. And the rotation should be deeper than in 2025, which is hugely important for a team that can’t get out of harm’s way. But how will it stack up against the rest of the division?

The Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease and also have Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce and Trey Yesavage. The Red Sox have Suárez, Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, Brayan Bello and others. The Yankees just nabbed Ryan Weathers, still have Max Fried, Cam Schlittler and Luis Gil, and will wait on Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt. The Rays bring the one-two punch of Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan, and they signed Steven Matz to start.

The Orioles come with questions. Who’s the next acquisition and is he through free agency or trade? Is the top portion of the rotation a little light without someone like Valdez, Zac Gallen or an ace from another team? And of course, how do all of these starters fit into a five-man rotation?

The answers are coming.