Signing Zach Eflin to a one-year deal, with a mutual option for 2027, wasn’t necessarily the huge starting rotation splash that many hoped Baltimore would make. Eflin’s status to begin the 2026 season, even, is uncertain.
However, if the veteran right-hander gets back to his old self at some point in 2026, the Orioles have significantly raised both their floor and ceiling in the rotation for the upcoming campaign.
Let’s not forget what that “old self” looked like, despite a disappointing 2025.
Eflin was acquired by the Orioles at the 2024 trade deadline in exchange for a prospect haul, and he didn’t disappoint in his debut stint in orange and black. The righty, fresh off of a sixth-place Cy Young finish in the previous season, posted a 2.60 ERA in nine starts for Baltimore to end the year.
To start 2025, he picked up right where he left off.
The former Phillie and Ray posted three consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than three earned runs to begin the year, surrendering just one free pass in the process. It seemed to be a sign of things to come, but after leaving the third start with just 73 pitches thrown, Eflin was shut down with a lat injury.
It kept him sidelined until mid-May, and he didn’t look like the same pitcher upon returning.
In the nine games that followed, Eflin posted an ERA all the way up at 7.16. A whopping 14 long balls left the yard among the 64 hits he yielded, and it was obvious that something wasn’t quite right. Eflin was placed on the injured-list with a back injury, returned in July to make two starts, but was shut down once again, later undergoing a lumbar microdiscectomy to hopefully remedy persistent issues.
That surgery has an expected recovery of four to eight months, a wide timetable that leaves his status for the beginning of this season uncertain. Clarity on a timetable could come closer to Spring Training.
A healthy version of Eflin has proven to be a valuable asset in Baltimore. Totalling the dozen starts the 31-year-old made from his deadline acquisition in ‘24 to his first injured-list stint in ‘25 leaves you with a 2.70 ERA, 55 strikeouts and 12 walks. He completed at least six innings in 10 of those 12, too.
Of course, those 12 starts are only part of the 23 that he made in an Orioles uniform, and the other 11 were far less impressive. They, and the injury concerns surrounding them, form the questions surrounding the veteran’s outlook.
A low-risk deal for Eflin leaves the Orioles in an opportune position.
At his best, Eflin is a high-end starting pitcher. An “ace” classification wouldn’t necessarily fit, but that 2.70 ERA in his healthy stretch in Baltimore would fit very nicely behind Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, and the newly acquired Shane Baz.
But on a short-term, lower-money deal, the Orioles don’t seem to be banking on that outcome. Nobody would complain about a sub-3.00 ERA, but Eflin seems to have been brought in to help stabilize the back-end of the rotation, joining the likes of Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Cade Povich in the depth conversation. Kremer and Eflin, if healthy, would seemingly have the inside track for those spots. Wells has performed well out of the bullpen in the past and could find a home there again, while Povich could attempt to do the same or find consistent starts in Triple-A.
As last year’s O’s painstakingly showcased, you can never have too much starting pitching depth.
Baltimore is still positioned, both in terms of finances and roster construction, to make a run at some of the top-of-the-line starters in free agency, of which only a few have come off the board. Acquiring Eflin shouldn’t deter them from doing so.
Eflin’s return is a low-risk, high-reward prospect for the Orioles. The veteran, at the very least, can provide quality depth. At best, he can pitch like one of the three-best starters in your rotation.
With the additions of Baz and Eflin, Baltimore continues to shore up their rotation. They may not be done, either.