Though they certainly intend to add more players from outside the organization this winter, the Nationals could theoretically field an Opening Day lineup comprised solely of players already on the 40-man roster and compete.
Except for one position.
While there are enough players to fill out the outfield (James Wood, Dylan Crews, Jacob Young) and have a leftover guy to serve as designated hitter (Daylen Lile), as well as three infield spots (Brady House, CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr.) and a catcher (Keibert Ruiz), there really isn’t anybody viable in place to handle first base.
Andres Chaparro is the only true first baseman on the 40-man roster at the moment, and his contributions through the first 67 games of his major league career include a .203 batting average, .358 slugging percentage, five homers, 20 RBIs, a .627 OPS and minus-0.4 bWAR. Not exactly the guy you want to pencil into the heart of your lineup for March 26 at Wrigley Field.
So, while there certainly are other items on Paul Toboni’s wish list this winter, a first baseman would probably need to be high on that list.
And it’s not just about plugging a hole in the lineup. It’s about finding a way to improve production at a position that sorely needs it.
Nationals first basemen have steadily regressed in recent years. After ranking third in the majors with an .866 OPS in 2022 thanks to four months of Josh Bell and then two months of Joey Meneses and Luke Voit, the Nats dropped to 20th in 2023 when Dominic Smith and Meneses combined for a .728 OPS, then 22nd in 2024 when Meneses, Joey Gallo and Juan Yepez combined for a .686 OPS.
The production dipped even more this season when Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell combined for a .680 OPS that ranked 23rd out of 30 clubs. (And that number rose over the final six weeks when Bell got hot following the unceremonious dumping of Lowe.)
First base is supposed to be one of the top offensive positions in baseball, but for the 2025 Nationals, it ranked fifth out of nine spots in the batting order, behind left field (.808), DH (.787), shortstop (.758) and right field (.686).
The problem now confronting Toboni (and it’s the same problem that confronted Mike Rizzo): There just aren’t many productive first basemen out there on the open market.
The big name free agents are familiar names from past winters: Pete Alonso and Cody Bellinger (who actually plays outfield more than first base). Both will cost in excess of $100 million, a figure the Nats haven’t come close to approaching with anyone since they re-signed Stephen Strasburg following the 2019 World Series. And both are going to be pursued heavily by the teams that employed them this season, both of them residing in New York. Josh Naylor, meanwhile, already re-signed with the Mariners for a whopping $92.5 million.
The more affordable names that follow those three high-priced ones all come with question marks, which is why most are likely to receive one- or two-year offers at most. Ryan O’Hearn was an All-Star for the Orioles but saw his power numbers drop after he was traded to the Padres. Luis Arraez has won three batting titles but has never hit more than 10 homers. Wilmer Flores, Paul Goldschmidt, Ty France, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Rowdy Tellez and Justin Turner have all seen better days.
Which brings us back to the two guys who played first base for the Nationals this season: Lowe and Bell.
Lowe was a massive disappointment after what looked like a solid trade by Rizzo with the Rangers. Unfortunately, the 30-year-old looked nothing like the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Award winner he was a few seasons prior, with a .665 OPS in 119 games, minus-4 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-0.3 bWAR that left him unmotivated and ultimately designated for assignment in mid-August. He briefly perked up after the Red Sox signed him, but he still found himself non-tendered by Boston last week.
Bell went through his customary early season slump, owner of a .544 OPS through May 27. But as he has so often done throughout his career, the big guy flipped the switch and got hot for a prolonged stretch, delivering an .836 OPS over the final four months. And though he’s never going to win a Gold Glove, he arguably looked better – or at least looked like he tried harder – at first base than Lowe did.
We know Bell loves D.C. We know the Nationals need more production and more veteran leadership. Perhaps a reunion is forthcoming.
If not, Toboni may have to get creative in trying to solve the franchise’s longstanding issue at one of the premium offensive positions on the field.