In an offseason loaded with major questions, the Nationals have already answered two of the biggest ones: Who will lead baseball operations, and who will manage the big league club?
Among the high-ranking questions still to be answered: How much money will they spend compared to previous years?
That’s the kind of question that comes up every year, and it’s never really answered publicly in words by anyone. The answer only comes through actions, once you see what the team’s payroll is come Opening Day and once you learn what kinds of other investments have been made to strengthen the organization.
But it’s especially notable this winter because it’s widely believed Paul Toboni would not have taken the job as the team’s new president of baseball operations without some kind of understanding from ownership how much he would be allowed to spend.
Here’s what managing principal owner Mark Lerner said when asked that question Oct. 1 during Toboni’s introductory press conference:
“We all gave him assurances, I would say that,” Lerner said. “The family is determined to get back to where we were a few years ago. We’re going to do what it takes. We want to do it in conjunction with sitting down with Paul when he’s ready, saying: ‘I need to do this, I need to do that.’ And we’ll take it from there. This is not a decision that has to be made today. But we will be there, and we will get back to where we know we should be.”
Where the Nationals have been in the past is a franchise that consistently fielded a top-10 major league payroll, which was true every season from 2013-21. They have not come close to reaching those levels in the four seasons since, with a payroll consistently ranking in the bottom-10 of the sport as they embarked on their rebuilding efforts.
Given the current state of affairs, with a still-young roster that won only 66 games this season and a potential work stoppage looming one year from now, it feels unlikely the Nats are about to splurge and field a top-10 payroll in 2026. But it seems more appropriate to ask if they’ll take any step forward in spending this winter, or if Toboni is looking at a payroll comparable to what Mike Rizzo had this season.
Here’s what we do know: The Nationals have very few financial commitments of any type on the books for future years. Only one player is currently signed beyond 2026: Keibert Ruiz, who is entering the fourth of eight years on the $50 million extension he signed in March 2023. And the commitment, while long in terms of years, isn’t all that large in terms of money: $35 million (plus the prorated portion of his $3 million signing bonus) over the next five years.
Only two other players are already signed with designated salaries for 2026: Trevor Williams ($7 million) and Shinnosuke Ogasawara ($2 million). Williams hopes to be back in April or May from elbow surgery; Ogasawara has already been dropped from the 40-man roster and been outrighted to Triple-A Rochester.
That’s it. Everyone else has fewer than six years of big league service time and is either eligible for arbitration or will make at or near the major league minimum salary ($780,000).
The seven arbitration-eligible players (Luis Garcia Jr., CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Riley Adams, Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli) do take up a decent chunk of payroll, with Garcia projected to lead that group at $7 million, followed by Abrams at $5.6 million, Gore at $4.7 million, Irvin at $3.3 million, Adams at $1.5 million, Gray at $1.35 million and Cavalli at $1.3 million. (All projections via MLB Trade Rumors.)
Collectively, those seven players stand to make just shy of $25 million. Williams, Ruiz and Ogasawara collectively will make $14.375 million. If you were to fill out the rest of an Opening Day roster with players already in the organization, you’d wind up with a total payroll of about $53 million.
That’s a paltry sum, one that would’ve ranked last in the majors in 2025, per Spotrac’s calculations. But that’s not the Nationals’ actual payroll total, because it doesn’t include by far their biggest expense: Stephen Strasburg.
Yes, Strasburg technically is still on the payroll. Though we never learned the actual terms of his retirement agreement with the club, his annual salary (32,811,200) does still count toward the team’s payroll total for luxury tax purposes. His seven-year, $245 million extension finally ends after the 2026 season. But for one more year, he’s included in the grand total, which brings that number up to roughly $86 million.
Even with Strasburg included, that number remains low. It would’ve ranked 27th in the majors last season. The Nationals did rank 24th with a total payroll of $109,465,924 per Spotrac.
The takeaway from all that: If they keep their payroll at the exact same level, the Nats have roughly $23 million available to spend this winter. If they intend to raise payroll – or if they opt to trade or non-tender any of the arbitration-eligible players – they’ll have more to spend.
Opening Day remains 4 1/2 months away. A lot can and will happen between now and then. Once that day does arrive, we’ll be able to look back and determine where this organization stands compared not only to 2025 but to all those seasons that came before it.