SARASOTA, Fla. – The Opening Day roster for the Orioles isn’t going to include infielder Jorge Mateo. The fastest player in camp made a speedy exit from it.

On the first workout day, executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias confirmed that Mateo is making progress but probably won’t get enough at-bats to be ready on March 27 in Toronto.

“He’s doing a hitting progression, hitting buildup,” Elias said. “He’s playing catch. Everything’s going well, but he’s likely to be held back in camp. Probably not somebody we’re going to see in Grapefruit League until very, very late in camp and that will probably put him in a position where he’s unlikely to make the Opening Day roster, but we anticipate him being a huge part of this team. He’s gonna be back in the early part of the season, hopefully not too long after Opening Day. But he’s in a very good spot.”

Mateo underwent ligament-repair surgery on his left elbow on Aug. 28 after suffering a severe dislocation in a collision with shortstop Gunnar Henderson. He could have given the team a seventh infielder and right-handed hitting backup in the outfield.

The Orioles signed Mateo to a $3.55 million contract with a $5.5 million club option for 2026 to avoid an arbitration hearing. They missed his speed and defense last summer, but he hit .229/.267/.401 in 68 games.

SARASOTA, Fla. - The due date has arrived for Orioles pitchers and catchers. They’re required to report today unless they have visa issues. There’s usually one in every crowd.

Not that the complex has been empty. Players arrive early, including the ones rehabbing from surgery. Physicals are taken and the back fields are occupied. Tossing a baseball back and forth in the morning feeds the senses.

The media gains access early Thursday. It isn’t like those Fort Lauderdale days when beat writers and columnists stood inside the clubhouse and waited for someone to show up with their bags. They’d usually just phone the manager and say, “I’m here.”

They meant the state of Florida. Guys weren’t in a big hurry to check into the outdated and dilapidated facility.

Beyond some roster competitions this spring, and there don’t appear to be many, is the battle for the Opening Day start. This is assuming that a decision isn’t already made and spring performances could factor into it.

Unlike your neighbor’s golden retriever, Zach Eflin despises walks. 

“I hate giving people a free pass … It really comes down to… I don’t like giving in to guys and just letting them take first base,” Eflin said with a smile in his first interaction with Baltimore reporters after being traded to the O’s back in July.

The right-hander went on to toss over 55 innings for the Orioles in the second half of last season. In that stretch, Eflin only walked 11 batters. The veteran’s aptitude for limiting free passes helped him allow just 16 total earned runs in his nine starts in Orioles orange. 

Nearly 100 pitchers in baseball had a fastball of at least 95 mph last season, but Eflin doesn’t pitch that way. The righty boasts a six-pitch arsenal, but none exceed an average of 93 mph. He won’t rack up the strikeout numbers, nor tout a huge whiff rate. 

Eflin excels at commanding the strike zone. His 3.5% walk rate put him in the 98th percentile in the majors in 2024. And when he did move out of the zone, he did so intentionally, to the tune of a 32.6% chase rate according to Statcast, good for the 88th percentile in baseball. 

As we are now just a few weeks away from the start of spring training and the new season, today let’s take a look at the O’s roster in terms of four components.

They are the offense and defense and the pitching – starting pitching and the bullpen.

We don’t know the Opening Day roster yet, obviously, or the final roster that will start camp, but at this point it’s pretty set. Yes, we could get a change or a few of them, but today we're going with what they have right now to assess how it all looks.

If you break those four down, I see all four as solid units for the team heading into the season. I will rank them as they look today, from strongest to weakest:

Offense

So, anything going on today?

We’re still waiting for an outcome with infielder Livan Soto, who was designated for assignment on Jan. 10 when the Orioles claimed right-hander Roansy Contreras on waivers from the Reds.

A week has passed, which could bring an announcement later today. Catcher René Pinto was designated on Jan. 3 and the Diamondbacks claimed him on the 10^th. But catcher Blake Hunt was designated Monday, and the Orioles traded him to the Mariners Wednesday for cash considerations.

In one of those baseball twists, the Orioles designated Contreras for assignment yesterday while claiming infielder Jacob Amaya, a former top 30 prospect, on waivers from the White Sox.

There will be a quiz later.

Zach Eflin picked up a baseball earlier than usual this offseason, an impressive feat for a man with his hands full.

Eflin is having a mostly typical winter professionally back at home in Orlando, even in temperatures that dipped into the 30s. The rest of it is more of an adventure, controlled chaos that amuses and fulfills him.

“Everything else life-related, there is no normalcy or anything, just from having three (children) under 3 ½ at this point and an eight-month pregnant wife,” Eflin said yesterday in a phone conversation. “Things are very reactionary nowadays.”

The Orioles will get a full season from Eflin after he made nine starts in 2024 following a deadline trade that sent minor leaguers Jackson Baumeister, Mac Horvath and Matthew Etzel to the Rays. He posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.120 WHIP and allowed one run in four innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card round against the Royals before receiving a quick hook.

The rotation currently is aligned to make Eflin, 30, the favorite to start on Opening Day in Toronto, with Grayson Rodriguez providing the main competition. Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton signed one-year deals, and Dean Kremer returns after registering a 3.82 ERA in 12 second-half starts.

We could call it a “two tiered” Orioles rotation at this point. They have two at the top right now in right-handers Zack Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez and three that follow that in some order.

As of today, Eflin or Rodriguez could get the Opening Day assignment with the other starting second.

Third through fifth in some combo, is expected to be Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. That is how I stack it as of today, Kremer, Sugano and Morton fifth. Others may project Morton at No. 3 or Sugano at No. 3. Lot of options here. No lefties in this rotation, but they are in the depth behind this group currently with pitchers like southpaws Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers. Could one of that duo impact the Opening Day five? Of course, it’s baseball, changes and injuries happen. Always write your plans in January in pencil with a big eraser close by.

The Orioles hopes for Eflin are likely big. In 2023 he pitched to an ERA of 3.50 with 16 wins for Tampa Bay and finished sixth for the AL Cy Young award. Traded to the Orioles on July 26 last summer for three minor leaguers, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA over nine starts.

With a combined 3.54 ERA and 1.054 WHIP the past two seasons producing an ERA+ of 115, he will be expected to pitch to that form for the 2025 Orioles.

Rather than ask (beg?) for more mailbag questions, I decided today to pose a few of my own.

Here are three for you to consider. Share your answers.

If the Orioles don’t acquire a No. 1 starter, should Zach Eflin or Grayson Rodriguez start on Opening Day?

Eflin has the edge in experience and track record. He’s also good, so the assignment wouldn’t be based only on those two factors.

The Rays named Eflin their Opening Day starter this year, and he held the Blue Jays to one run through five innings before the game unraveled for him in a five-run sixth. He surrendered three home runs in an 8-2 loss.

Sure the Orioles, like most teams that don’t have one, could use an ace pitcher. They still hope to add one before the start of the 2025 season. 

But their current rotation has the makings of being a good one.

Here is how it looks today:

Zach Eflin: He is the probable Opening Day starter. After the trade to the Orioles, over nine starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA. Only nine pitchers, including the Orioles' Corbin Burnes, that qualified, posted season-long ERAs under 3.00. To do it even for nine starts was impressive.

Eflin finished sixth for the 2023 American League Cy Young Award and has been among the best pitchers in the American League. Over the last two years, while Burnes posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP, Eflin was at 3.54 and 1.085.

One of the most important questions relating to the Orioles was attached earlier this week. It came out of nowhere.

Well, it’s actually Japan, but still unexpected with the rotation chatter and speculation focusing on trades and the major league free-agent market.  

Will Tomoyuki Sugano’s stuff translate to similar results in the U.S.?

Sugano will be the third Japanese pitcher to appear with the Orioles, an important distinction because Tsuyoshi Wada underwent ligament-reconstructive elbow surgery in May 2012, was released the following year and never made it past Triple-A with them. He doesn’t count. Zero return on the two-year, $8.15 million contract he received.

(Easily forgotten is how the Cubs signed Wada in 2014 and he tossed six hitless innings against the Orioles on Aug. 24 at Wrigley Field. Steve Pearce led off the seventh with a home run.)

The work required to build the 26-man roster for Opening Day is a long way from completion. The surface hasn’t even been scratched.

At least one starter and reliever, a right-handed bat – likely for the outfield – and a backup catcher bring boxes that still need checking. The Orioles are on the clock but the ticking isn’t really that loud. Plenty of time remains to finish shopping before camp opens in mid-February. Plenty of names remain on the board who could fill specific needs of the club, and there are also trade talks that might produce upgrades.

This is the point in the offseason when I’m reminded of the gaps in the roster. A national publication is asking for a projected lineup, rotation, bullpen and bench. The list will be outdated in a few months, but that isn’t my problem.

The issue is coming up with 26 names.

Starting with the rotation, an Opening Day in December could line up Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers and Cade Povich, with the first two vying for the March 27 game in Toronto. Albert Suárez is a possibility, of course.

With Grayson Rodriguez returning next year after what turned out to be a season-ending injury in 2024 and with Corbin Burnes possibly leaving via free agency, the one man standing alone atop the Baltimore rotation right now is 30-year-old right-hander Zach Eflin, a veteran of nine seasons with three teams who has made 174 career starts.

Eflin, under contract next year for $18 million, is easily the O’s current highest-paid player. That could change but right now he’s No. 1.

The O’s picked up that tab for next season on July 26 last summer when they completed the trade with Tampa Bay to acquire Eflin and gave up three top 30 prospects in Jackson Baumeister, and position players Mac Horvath and Matthew Etzel.

In 28 starts between the Rays and Orioles in 2024, he went 10-9 with a 3.59 ERA over 165 1/3 innings. He had a 1.149 WHIP allowing just 1.3 walks per nine with 7.3 strikeouts. His 3.5 percent walk rate ranked in the top two percent of MLB.

Eflin sure showed his strong command and control during his first eight of nine regular season starts for the Orioles, allowing no walks or one. He then walked five in 4 2/3 in his last regular season outing versus the Yankees.

Three months remain until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, followed by the position players. The dates are formalities because most of the Orioles get there early.

I’ve written about some anticipated storylines, like how Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo fit on the roster, how Adley Rutschman will hit, anything Félix Bautista, rehab progress made by Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, Grayson Rodriguez’s health after being left off the Wild Card roster, and anything Jackson Holliday.

I’ve come up with a few more this morning.

What a full season from Zach Eflin can do for the club.

We found out how valuable Eflin was after the July 26 trade with the Rays that cost the Orioles minor leaguers Jackson Baumeister, Matthew Etzel and Mac Horvath. Eflin went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.120 WHIP with 11 walks – five of them in his final appearance of the regular season - in 55 1/3 innings. Seven of his starts were quality outings and he fell an out short of an eighth against his former team.

It might have been, on the one hand, an indication that the new O’s ownership group might spend more on player salaries moving forward when they added a pitcher in July that is signed for $18 million in 2025.

Not only did the Orioles give up three top 30 prospects when they acquired right-hander Zach Eflin from Tampa Bay on July 26, but they took on that salary for next season as well.

Eflin pitched quite well in nine O’s starts in the regular season and one more in the postseason. Right now, he is likely the No. 1 pitcher in a rotation that might be adding a pitcher or two over the winter and one that looks to get Grayson Rodriguez back as a full go when 2025 begins. A rotation that could see free agent Corbin Burnes signed for $200 million or more elsewhere leaving the club a draft pick, but a hole at the top of the starting five.

No one is saying Eflin is the equal of Burnes, but he was close to that since the start of 2023.

In that two-season span, Eflin has made 59 starts, going 26-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.085 WHIP. In the same two-season span, Burnes has gone 25-17 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP.

A common offseason activity for baseball media is flipping through pages of the last notebook used in search of tidbits that can be posted during slow times.

Any newsy or interesting nuggets that were missed or held. Notations that serve as reminders for later use.

I’m also reminded again that my handwriting looks like I’m wedging a pen between toes on a numb left foot.

Here’s a sampling of what I think that I found:

* A popular opinion inside the clubhouse is that Jordan Westburg provides some of the best at-bats on the team. He might string together the most among the bunch, which really impresses when you consider that 2024 was his first full season in the majors – not counting his time spent on the injured list.

The music didn't play. The reflections from the disco lights didn't bounce off the walls and ceiling. The Orioles sat in silence at their lockers or circled the room and hugged, failing to repeat as division champions and now mimicking last year’s morose elimination setting.

The losing streak in the playoffs has reached 10 games. Any chance to snap it must wait until 2025.

The Royals broke a tie in the sixth inning on Bobby Witt Jr.’s infield single with two outs that scored Kyle Isbel, and the Orioles lost 2-1 in a do-or-die Game 2 of the Wild Card series before an announced crowd of 38,698 at Camden Yards.

That’s it. Being all-in with the winter trade for Corbin Burnes and talking about avenging last year’s ouster in the Division Series in Texas led to another sweep. Too many injuries and too little offense.

And now, a lot of time to think about it.

The Orioles have lost yet another close postseason game to the Kansas City Royals. Swept four straight in the 2014 American League Championship Series by six total runs, they lost a pair of one-run games to K.C. in this AL Wild Card round.

They lose 2-1 today and scored just one run in the series. The Royals advance to play the No. 1 seed Yankees in a series that begins on Saturday in the Bronx. 

The Orioles are now 0-6 all-time in the playoffs versus the Royals by eight total runs.

After a 91-71 regular season and a second-place AL East finish, the season ends again in early October.

The O’s have lost 10 straight in the postseason.

Facing a win or go home, the season's over scenario, the Orioles host the Kansas City Royals today in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card round series at Oriole Park. 

There were just 10 hits yesterday as Kansas City pushed across a sixth-inning run to beat the Orioles 1-0, who now have a nine-game postseason losing streak.

Bobby Witt Jr. singled in the only run as Kansas City moved to within one win of advancing to the AL Division Series against the New York Yankees.

The Orioles, who scored 22 runs in sweeping Minnesota over the weekend and 56 runs in their last 10 regular-season games, were shut out. It was their fourth shutout over the last 20 games since Sept. 8.

O's right-hander Corbin Burnes went eight-innings plus one batter allowing five hits and one run on 84 pitches. Burnes, who has never thrown a complete game came close yesterday. His career-long outing was 8 1/3 innings on July 18, 2021 for Milwaukee at Cincinnati.

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde took a temperature check of his team this morning. He walked in the clubhouse and the weight room. No one seemed to be sweating yesterday’s loss that pushed them to the brink of elimination in the Wild Card round.

“I think it's totally business as usual,” Hyde said.

“I think guys are in great spirits and ready to get after it today.”

They must or there’s no tomorrow.

“I have all the faith in the world in this team,” said Colton Cowser. “I think yesterday it was just one of those days. I think our guys, we're really confident, really comfortable, and we're looking forward to bouncing back.”

If the Orioles reach the Division Series, Game 1 would be played Saturday at 6:38 p.m. at Yankee Stadium. Game 2 would be played Monday at 7:38 p.m.

They need to get there first, and a loss today destroys that goal.

Colton Cowser is the cleanup hitter this afternoon, Adley Rutschman is catching and Ryan O’Hearn is the designated hitter.

Zach Eflin pitched for the Rays in Kansas City on July 4 and allowed five earned runs and six total in five innings. He owns a 5.09 ERA in four career starts against them totaling 23 innings.

Eflin tossed a complete-game shutout against the Royals on May 11, 2019 with the Phillies.