Ninety-eight days.

That’s all it took for the Orioles to sign starting pitcher Shane Baz to a five-year contract extension. The right-hander has yet to get on a regular season mound for the Orioles and would fall two days short of a 100-day challenge to form a new habit. But he didn’t need long to make a strong impression on the organization after being acquired in December.

“We’re big believers in Shane,” president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Elias said on MASN yesterday.

“We felt he fit into our rotation really well, gives us something we don’t have in the rotation, and also somebody that we, obviously, believe has his best years ahead of him. He’s got tremendous pedigree, a tremendous arm, a bunch of plus pitches, and he can pitch, too, he’s not a wild guy. It’s a really good combination of traits.”

Without a start in an Orioles uniform and a 2025 ERA of 4.87, this is a deal based on projection. Baltimore believes that a bet on Baz is a good one to make. 

Baz’s pedigree, and Elias’ belief in it, dates back to the right-hander’s high school days. 

“He was on the USA team, he came out of the Houston area where I was living at the time, working for the Astros,” Elias said. Baz would go on to be selected with the No. 12 pick in the 2017 MLB Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates before being the “player to be named later” in the much maligned Chris Archer deal with the Rays. 

In Tampa Bay’s organization, Baz blossomed into one of the best prospects in the game, reaching the heights of the No. 2 overall pitching prospect in 2022, according to MLB Pipeline. The outlet graded Baz’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, and even after Tommy John surgery, Baz can still hit triple digits on the radar gun. Complimenting the heater is a wicked knuckle curveball, a changeup, and a cutter/slider combination that he hopes to improve. 

By now, you’ve probably heard a few things about Baz: that he’s had trouble staying healthy, and that there’s more to an inflated ERA in 2025.

“He’s had arm surgery that’s cost him some time, but we think he’s ready to take off,” Elias said. An extension is a vote of confidence that Baz’s 30-start 2025 will be the norm moving forward, and the early part of his career marred by Tommy John surgery is in the rear view mirror. 

Now, for the inflated ERA. 

The former Ray’s home and road splits from a season ago have been well documented. Steinbrenner Field, the spring training home of the New York Yankees, served as the home stadium for Baz. While it shares the dimensions of its Bronx counterpart, the Tampa Bay weather certainly doesn’t mimic New York’s, having a big impact on how the ball flies. 

But ERA isn’t everything. 

“His peripherals last year were very good,” Elias said. “He had a lot of bad luck. That aside, we think he’s in a really good spot in his career.” 

In 16 starts at Steinbrenner, Baz averaged 2.91 strikeouts per walk, a figure even higher than his number on the road. Overall, his hard-hit rate was down nearly three percent from his 14 starts in 2024, a season in which he posted a 3.06 ERA. He missed a lot of bats, with above-average chase and whiff rates, according to Statcast, and an average of nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Baz’s groundball rate improved by roughly seven percent, too, according to FanGraphs, and his soft-contact rate got better. 

Still, thanks to a home run per fly ball rate that went up a whopping six percent from his previous season, a .303 batting average on balls in play, a number that was at .229 in 2024, and some overall bad luck, Baz was left with an ERA close to 6.00 at home, and an overall ERA of 4.87. 

Baz can only control so much on the mound. The stuff and control are in good places, and that will lead to better results over time. The Orioles don’t need to see positive regular season numbers to believe that they’re on the way. 

“He’s looked great for us this Spring, we’ve really liked having him in the organization, our pitching coaches are enormous fans of his, and they work well together. I think he fits in well with the group,” Elias said. 

The O’s clearly believe they’re getting out in front of a career year, and, perhaps, getting out in front of a much heftier price tag. With the extensions of Baz and Samuel Basallo, Baltimore is making an investment in the future. 

“One of the things that I’m most encouraged about and excited about is that we’re really seeing, to me, some evidence that this is a destination for players, and it should be,” Elias said.

“There’s just a lot of optimism and energy around the franchise right now and in the locker room.”