Plotting an offseason strategy to improve the roster and the Orioles’ chances of reaching the playoffs in 2026 requires a deep-dive into the weaknesses that must be addressed and an accurate measurement of payroll flexibility.

Contending comes at a cost.

The trade deadline, free agency and Félix Bautista’s shoulder surgery created openings across the board - in the rotation, bullpen, infield and outfield. The Orioles have room for Jorge Mateo and a need for a utility-type player with elite speed, but he might be running out of time.

Mateo is coming off back-to-back, injury-shortened seasons, appearing in only 68 games in 2024 before undergoing reconstructive elbow surgery and 40 this summer due to elbow inflammation and a hamstring strain that he sustained on his rehab assignment.

The Orioles added Mateo to their expanded September roster, but he’s started only four times – three since Wednesday against left-handers, and received 15 at-bats. He went 0-for-3 with a strikeout last night, is hitting .184/.225/.276 and owed $5.5 million next season.

A relationship that began with a waiver claim on Aug. 5, 2021, when the Orioles designated Pat Valaika for assignment to obtain a toolsy, three-time Top 100 prospect, could be approaching its end.

“The reality for me is that I know it hasn’t been a good year,” Mateo said through interpreter Brandon Quinones, “but in the end I still thank God for it all and for opportunity to be able to be here now.”

But what about 2026?

“I don’t control that decision,” he said.

All of Mateo’s starts this month have come in center field. The infield is pretty much set with Gunnar Henderson at shortstop, Jackson Holliday at second base and Jordan Westburg at third. The Orioles want to evaluate Jeremiah Jackson at third when he isn’t in right, keeping his bat in the lineup and hoping to figure out a possible role next season. Luis Vázquez is an exceptional fielder at shortstop and perhaps the best emergency reliever in baseball with four scoreless appearances, and he keeps surviving the constant turnover in the roster. He started at second base Thursday.

Tyler O’Neill’s return from the injured list gave the Orioles a needed right-handed hitting outfielder, but Mateo is providing an alternative in center to the left-handed hitting Colton Cowser. He had some rough moments earlier this season, including a misplay on Bobby Witt Jr.’s fly ball on April 6 in Kansas City that went for a gift triple and led to a three-run first inning.

Free agency, if Mateo reaches it, would be kinder if teams view him as a capable outfielder. Or the Orioles might be more inclined to pick up the option.

It’s also beneficial, of course, if Mateo can take advantage of his speed by getting on base much more consistently. He slashed .229/.267/.401 last year. Mateo stole 35 and 32 bases, respectively, in 2022 and 2023 but posted .221 and .217 averages with the same .269 OBP.

“I don’t really think there’s anything in particular that I want to demonstrate,” Mateo said. “My goal is just to finish the season off healthy and then playing well.”

* Tomoyuki Sugano made the penultimate start of his rookie season in the United States last night and it wasn’t good, with four runs allowed in only three innings. He’s got one more opportunity next weekend in New York, which would bring his total to 30, an impressive feat given the adjustments made after leaving Japan and the constant flow of injuries to teammates.

Sugano moved ahead of Dean Kremer for the team lead in starts, though they’re tied in appearances. Kremer is expected to get the ball Tuesday night against the Rays at Camden Yards, but he won’t pitch again in a six-man rotation.

“I thought he got off to a really good start in a lot of ways, and then I felt like middle of the season, a little bit of a rough patch there,” interim manager Tony Mansolino said yesterday afternoon. “I think there was some getting used to going on right there. I think he was getting used to the major league schedule and pitching on normal rest, and we kind of had to push back and give him that extra rest. He had to get used to teams being able to adjust to him. Some of the best hitters in the world being able to adjust to him the way in which they had, and he had to learn how to adjust back, and I feel like we’ve seen that.

“I feel like you take away maybe four weeks right there in the middle and it’s been a really good year for him, especially as a 35-year-old, first year in the U.S. and having to face the best lineups in the American League East. I think he has to be proud of what he’s done.”

Sugano can become a free agent over the winter, making last night’s start potentially his last in Baltimore with the Orioles.

“The fans are very passionate over here, and I wanted to give out my best on my last start, but yeah, that’s all I can say about starting over here,” he said via interpreter Yuto Sakurai. "The fans are very passionate.”

Asked whether he’d like to stay, Sakurai answered in the affirmative. Of course he did. I’m sure his response was genuine, but what else would anyone say in that situation?

“If I have the opportunity to play here again,” he said, “I’ll be really happy to.”  

* Samuel Basallo was on the bench last night against Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón, but he’ll catch this afternoon.

Basallo has played in 26 games and received 92 at-bats, keeping his rookie status intact next season. He’s started 18 times behind the plate and once at first base.

The power flashes, but Basallo is batting .185/.242/.348 in 99 plate appearances. He’s earning high marks for his handling of pitchers.

“I’ll tell you what, you’d like to say, ‘as advertised,’ but he wasn’t advertised this good. I mean, he’s exceeded expectations here behind the plate for me,” Mansolino said.

“There was obviously a lot of concern bringing him up to catch him here in the big leagues and have to run a major league pitching staff. Watching what he’s done here in a short period of time, either we got really, really good people helping him - which I think is part of the reason why he’s doing well - or it was downplayed a little bit. Or he got a lot better here in the last month prior to coming up. He has been really impressive behind the plate, other than the one game in Chicago where I think he just ran out of gas. I don’t think he played that many games in a row in the minor leagues.

“I know he hadn’t, because they have off-days Monday and they usually get an off-day in the week, but he played eight straight days at that point and had some balls get past him. Was tired. But other than that, thrilled with the retention, thrilled with the aptitude, learning batter-to-batter, remembering batters. Way better than advertised.”

Basallo caught Trevor Rogers, who tossed six scoreless innings Friday with one hit allowed.

“He's great,” Rogers said. “It just seems like we get more and more in tune with each other each start, and him being 21 years old and just having that knowledge behind the plate, seeing stuff and relaying that info to me … he's unbelievable. So I'm very thankful I get to work with him in the years to come.”

Rogers is a free agent after 2026. The word “years” jumped out, but don’t read too much into it.