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The same question was asked after the Orioles surrendered four prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A pick yesterday to acquire pitcher Shane Baz from the Rays.
What’s next?
We wondered about it after closer Ryan Helsley signed for $28 million over two years and again after first baseman Pete Alonso agreed to the five-year, $155 million deal that ranked as the second-most lucrative in franchise history.
Yesterday’s trade caused a redesign of Tampa Bay’s Top 30 prospects list, as calculated by MLB Pipeline, and it's dramatic. Pitcher Michael Forret is No. 5, outfielder Slater de Brun No. 6, catcher Caden Bodine No. 11 and outfielder Austin Overn No. 20. That’s a forceful injection of talent for a pitcher who won’t rise atop the Orioles’ rotation.
Baz isn’t expected to be a No. 1 starter and he probably slots behind Trevor Rogers in the current alignment, leaving Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer for the last two spots. He’s likely to be pushed further back - which would have happened to Grayson Rodriguez before the Orioles traded him to the Angels - if president of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias negotiates a bigger signing or deal.
The work that remains in building the Orioles’ rotation takes into account how Kyle Bradish could be on the mound for Opening Day. He’s got the qualifications, earning the trust that allowed him to start Game 1 of the 2023 Division Series and finishing fourth in American League Cy Young voting. His ERAs the past three seasons are 2.83, 2.75 and 2.53, and he’s averaged 9.0, 12.1 and 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
He has the stuff. It's the 14 combined starts in 2024 and 2025, with elbow-reconstructive surgery wedged in the middle, that kept him from earning the indisputable ace status that he’s capable of possessing.
Michael King is off the board after staying with the Padres on a three-year, $75 million deal. No one has reeled in the bigger fish in the free agent pond except for the Blue Jays capturing Dylan Cease, using $210 million for bait.
Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez bring resumes that can push them past Bradish, and the latter’s career 1.48 ERA in 42 2/3 playoff innings gives him the ball in any Game 1. But the Orioles have extreme confidence that Bradish and Trevor Rogers will thrive.
They both belong on the list of necessities if the Orioles are going to vault from last place to first and make a serious run at a championship.
Bradish started six times to finish the 2025 season and racked up 32 innings with 47 strikeouts to prep him for a much heavier workload.
Rogers had a different set of challenges, beginning with the four disappointing starts and a demotion after the Orioles traded for him in 2024 and continuing with the right knee subluxation that limited his work in camp and forced him onto the injured list.
Not even the most optimistic people around Rogers could predict that he’d have a 1.35 ERA going into his 18th and final start, finishing at 1.81 with a 0.903 WHIP after allowing six runs in three innings at Yankee Stadium. He placed ninth in Cy Young voting and became the first pitcher to win the Most Valuable Oriole award since Rodrigo Lopez in 2002.
“No, not realistically,” pitching coach Drew French said Thursday night on the “Orioles Hot Stove Show” when asked if he could have anticipated it.
“This guy was a monster, obviously a first-round draft pick and signing for over $2 million. His ceiling is really, really high. The fact remains that there were a lot of residual things that kind of led to kind of the broken man that he was when he arrived in Baltimore in ’24. But our entire group – front office, pro scouting, everybody - just putting their heads together and ultimately having a player that was willing to buy in and trust our process and trust our people. Just surrounding him and supporting him, and ultimately the player and the athlete’s got to do the job.
“I think systematically we are very, very proud of Trevor, we’re proud how we unified together as an entire organization for the betterment of a player. It’s a really nice, unique success story for us in a year that started as rough as it did.”
Rogers can become a free agent after this season and Kremer and Wells after 2027, which makes the three years of controllability with Baz even more important. Bradish can’t leave until after 2028.
French talked about the “two buckets” with Rogers: consistency and also the things he can improve on that will have a lasting impact on his game.
“Trevor is not satisfied with what 2025 was, and this guy’s got unbelievable perspective, so his ability to kind of see things for what they are is probably one of his strongest traits, if you will,” French said.
“He’s putting a lot of work in right now. He’s understanding of what’s in front of him, he’s understanding the expectations. The amount of eggs he puts in the mental game basket, you guys would be pretty surprised to see how well he supports himself on that side. Because ultimately, if he’s physically healthy and he’s training the right way, the output should be really, really good.
“Now, as the league starts to learn him a little bit more now that he’s got 18 really quality starts under his belt in 2025, it’s gonna be up to us to make sure that we’re zigging where they’re zagging. And he’s got the confidence in our pitching department and our organization that we can have these conversations and kind of unite for the betterment of his career.”
Wells could find it a lot harder to stay in the rotation this season if Elias obtains another starter. Cade Povich and Brandon Young already are nudged further away from it with Baz’s arrival.
The difference here is that Wells would go to the bullpen. Povich and Young could return to Triple-A Norfolk and keep developing as starters.
There’s no debating whether Elias is done with the pitching staff. He won’t rest until Opening Day is approaching.
So, again, what’s next?
