Whether anyone outside – or even inside – Washington believes it, the Nationals themselves believe they’re ready to take the next critical step in their long rebuild and compete head-to-head with the top three teams in perhaps baseball’s toughest division.

Consider today’s Opening Day extra-inning thriller a first message sent by this talented, young squad, which saw its new ace overwhelm a star-studded Phillies lineup and several key members of the lineup deliver in key spots late in the game.

Now, if they could just find a way to finish the job and walk away victorious.

Alas, that wasn’t to be on this otherwise glorious late afternoon. Alec Bohm’s two-out, two-run double off Colin Poche and J.T. Realmuto’s two-run triple off Eduardo Salazar in the top of the 10th gave the Phillies the lead for good in a seesaw game, the Nationals ultimately falling 7-3 before a sellout crowd of 41,231 that desperately wanted reason to celebrate at day’s end but was forced to trudge home disappointed.

The Nats put themselves in prime position to win on Opening Day for the first time since 2021. MacKenzie Gore was absolutely brilliant, striking out 13 over six innings of one-hit ball in the first Opening Day start of his career. Keibert Ruiz homered off Zack Wheeler to give his team a 1-0 lead that held up for six innings.

DJ Herz is getting a second opinion on his sprained elbow ligament, one that will determine if the Nationals left-hander needs Tommy John surgery or can attempt to come back merely with rest and rehab.

Herz, who was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday and then transferred to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, already had an initial MRI taken that revealed a sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament. He’s now scheduled to get a second opinion in Dallas from Keith Meister, the noted orthopedist who has performed a number of Tommy John surgeries and internal brace procedures on other major leaguers. According to a source familiar with the injury, the Nationals don’t intend to wait long if surgery is suggested, preferring Herz get it done now and be able to return for the majority of the 2026 season.

Herz was one of the brightest developments of last season, debuting in June and proceeding to make 19 big league starts, going 4-9 with a 4.6 ERA but also authoring several of the team’s most dominant starts of the year. He came to camp this spring competing with Mitchell Parker and Shinnosuke Ogasawara for the fifth starter’s job but struggled with command and saw his fastball velocity drop into the upper 80s.

Herz told club officials and reporters alike he was physically fine, but that he wasn’t throwing as hard due to a lack of adrenaline. He cited similar situations playing out in previous spring trainings, noting his velocity always showed up during the regular season.

The Nationals saw some better signs during a simulated game Herz pitched late in camp, but still decided to option the lefty to Triple-A Rochester last week, giving him more time to build his arm up. After learning of the demotion, Herz informed the team he wanted to see a doctor in case there actually was something wrong with his arm.

And away we go! Welcome to the 2025 Major League Baseball season and the 21st season of Washington Nationals baseball. That’s right, this ballclub now enters its third decade in the District, pretty remarkable for anyone who remembers the three decades this town spent without baseball.

The Nats have renewed hopes entering this season, perhaps even hopes of a winning record for the first time since 2019. The early schedule, however, is not kind. Their first four series come against the Phillies, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Dodgers, though three of those four at least come at home.

It all begins this afternoon against Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies, who have visions not only of a winning season but of a championship parade come November. That lineup will present a good challenge for MacKenzie Gore, who just so happened to shut out that same group over six innings in his final start of the 2024 season.

Gore’s opponent that day was Zack Wheeler, who also gets the start today. The veteran right-hander has established himself as one of the best workhorses in the sport, one with Cy Young Award visions. We’ll have to see how a newly constructed Nationals lineup in search of more power fares in this one.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Where: Nationals Park
Gametime: 4:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, 87.7 FM (Spanish), MLB.com
Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees, wind 9 mph out to right field

Alright, the time has come. We survived a long, cold winter. We endured through six weeks of spring training. We fretted over transactions made and transactions not made. We thought we knew what the roster would look like, then we had to make last-minute adjustments due to injuries and a few surprises.

But there’s no more time to decipher, agonize or evaluate. Opening Day has arrived, and that means it’s time for predictions.

For the 16th consecutive season, we proudly present the Nationals media Opening Day predictions. We’ve got several familiar names here who have been participating through the entire run of this annual tradition. We’ve got several more who have joined us in recent years. And we’ve even got a few new entrants this season who are excited (or is that terrified) to reveal their picks.

The most important thing to remember about this exercise: We will republish all of the predictions at the end of the season and find out who knew what they were talking about and who had no clue. (Spoiler alert: Usually, we’re proven to have had no clue.)

And with that, away we go …

The Nationals’ Opening Day roster will include Riley Adams, José Tena, Orlando Ribalta and Brad Lord. It will not include Andrew Knizner, Juan Yepez or Jackson Rutledge.

The Nats announced their final roster moves late this afternoon, in the process leaving 26 remaining active players who will take the field Thursday against the Phillies.

The official transactions:

* Lord had his contract purchased, putting him on both the 26-man and 40-man rosters for the first time.

* Yepez and Rutledge were optioned to Triple-A Rochester, with Knizner (who wasn’t on the 40-man roster) reassigned to Triple-A.

Now entering his eighth season as Nationals manager, Davey Martinez knows no team is like any of its predecessors.

The 2018 Nats were desperate to get over the October hump, maybe too desperate, and never even got there. The 2019 Nats were much looser, once they reached the depths of 19-31 and decided to just start having fun, all the way to a thrilling championship.

The 2020 Nats were ready to enjoy a victory lap, only to have it shut down by COVID. The 2021 Nats tried to run it back one more time with a veteran roster, then flamed out in July.

The 2022 Nats had to cope with the reality of a rebuild, then the shock of one of the biggest trades in baseball history. The 2023 Nats were young and hungry but knew they weren’t anywhere close to ready yet. And the 2024 Nats were energized by the arrival of two elite prospects but weren’t deep enough to sustain success for six months.

What, then, did Martinez see in the 2025 Nats over the course of six weeks in Florida? Youth. Talent. And a universal desire to move out of the organization’s agonizing rebuild phase and set the bar much higher.

The Nationals placed DJ Herz on the 15-day injured list this morning with a UCL sprain in his elbow, a potential season-ending ailment for the left-hander that would explain his spring training struggles.

Herz had been optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Friday, capping off a difficult spring that saw the 24-year-old deal with diminished velocity and poor results while ceding the No. 5 starter competition to fellow lefty Mitchell Parker.

At the time, club officials suggested Herz simply needed more time to get his arm in shape and that he would be in the running for a promotion back to the majors once he looked more like himself.

“We know his velo was a little bit down, but just go down there and start getting built up,” manager Davey Martinez said Friday after the demotion was announced. “And understand that last year, he only had (19) starts. He hasn’t pitched that much. So he’s going to go down there and get ready to help us.”

Herz was one of the brightest developments of the 2024 season for the Nationals, called up to make his major league debut in early June and then remaining in the rotation for most of the remainder of the year. He finished with a 4-9 record and 4.16 ERA, but he authored some of the team’s most dominant starts of the season, including six innings of one-hit ball with 13 strikeouts against the Marlins on June 15 and 10 strikeouts with one run allowed July 2 against the Mets.

The 2025 season will be Bob Carpenter’s final season as the Nationals’ lead play-by-play television announcer.

Carpenter revealed at the start of today’s broadcast of the Nats’ exhibition finale against the Orioles he plans to step down at the end of the season, his 20th with MASN.

“I've got a new deal working for next year as a full-time husband, dad and grandpa,” he said. “My objective is to, all season long, thank you Nats fans for the way you've been to my wife, Debbie, and I and our family over these 19 years previously. Let's make No. 20 a lot of fun.”

Though Carpenter made the official announcement today, it wasn’t a sudden decision.

“This has been on my mind for quite a while,” he said in an interview last week. “And I’ve got to tell you, it’s the most difficult decision I’ve ever had to make. Because I feel like I still have my fastball. I don’t feel like I’ve lost it yet. But I’ve seen some guys who stayed too long, and I don’t want to be one of those guys.”

Over the last six weeks, we’ve written a lot of words here about the Nationals. A lot more about some of them than others. It’s just the nature of spring training, where a handful of seemingly important storylines get most of the attention while others get ignored.

But that’s why we write this final piece at the end of camp every year. It’s an opportunity to look back at the last month and a half and question if we might have been paying attention to the wrong things all along.

So without further ado, here’s our annual look back at what storylines we made too big a deal out of, and what storylines we potentially glossed over …

TOO BIG A DEAL: THE FIFTH STARTER
The biggest position battle of the spring was between three young left-handers trying to win the only open spot in the Opening Day rotation. Truth be told, it wasn’t much of a battle. DJ Herz struggled to get his velocity up and ultimately needs more time at Triple-A. Shinnosuke Ogasawara pretty clearly wasn’t big league material yet and needed to be sent to Triple-A as well. So Mitchell Parker won the job not by doing anything special, but just by looking OK. Here’s the thing, though: We’ll probably end up seeing all of them in the majors at some point this season. And we could see other starters as well: Brad Lord, Tyler Stuart, Andry Lara. Oh, yeah, there’s also Cade Cavalli, who could be ready by June or so. Point is, it doesn’t really matter who the fifth starter is in April. It’ll probably be someone else come September.

GLOSSED OVER: IMPROVED DEFENSE
Most of the attention given to the newcomers to the Nationals lineup centered on their offensive prowess (or lack thereof). But the biggest improvement might actually be in the field. Nathaniel Lowe is a Gold Glove first baseman who will make everyone around him better. Paul DeJong looked spectacular at third base and will be a massive defensive upgrade over last year’s consortium at the hot corner. Dylan Crews isn’t a newcomer, but a full season of him in right field could be special. And we already know Jacob Young is outstanding in center field. If the middle infielders and catcher can just be average, the Nats could have their first really good defensive team in a while.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – The Nationals broke camp this afternoon and left for Palm Beach International Airport. They’ll arrive in Washington this evening having spent the last six weeks evaluating a roster they believe is much improved from a year ago, but one that’s still not 100 percent settled.

Manager Davey Martinez said the team won’t make its final cuts until after Monday’s exhibition finale against the Orioles at Nationals Park, leaving the fates of a number of players on the bubble up in the air for another 24 hours.

“This is tough,” Martinez said following an 8-5 loss to the Astros in the Grapefruit League finale. “It really is.”

The Nats settled their fifth starter competition Friday, optioning DJ Herz and Shinnosuke Ogasawara to Triple-A Rochester to leave the spot for Mitchell Parker. But they’ve still got four more roster spots to figure out: backup catcher, 26th man on the bench and two bullpen jobs.

The bullpen situation is the most complicated, because of several moving parts. Derek Law, projected all along to make the team, now appears likely to open the season on the 15-day injured list because his arm hasn’t recovered well enough from the couple of times he’s faced live hitters in the last week-plus.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – The day has arrived at last. It’s the Grapefruit League finale. (Er, actually, finales, because there’s a split-squad game as well, though hardly any major leaguers will be there for that one.)

The Nationals and Astros square off one more time at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, a final tune-up before heading north. There’s still another exhibition game to play Monday in D.C. against the Orioles, but this will be it for the Florida portion of the spring.

With that in mind, Davey Martinez has a potential Opening Day lineup out there. The only twist: Nathaniel Lowe is dropped to the sixth spot, with Luis García Jr. moved up to the fifth spot. Could we see that alignment Thursday against Zack Wheeler? We’ll have to wait and see.

Trevor Williams gets the ball for his final tune-up before the season begins. The right-hander has felt good all spring and should be good for five-plus innings today.

Meanwhile in Jupiter, it’ll be Alex Call, José Tena, Juan Yepez and Riley Adams joining a bunch of guys from minor league camp to face the Cardinals in the other game at 1:05 p.m.

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. – As the Mets kept fouling off everything MacKenzie Gore was throwing at them, driving up his pitch count and limiting him to only three innings in his spring training finale, you could only imagine the Nationals left-hander’s frustration mounting.

Then mention it to Gore, inform him of the gargantuan foul ball tally (24 of the 74 total pitches he threw) and watch his eyes actually light up.

“That’s probably a good thing, really,” he said. “Because I think everyone was kind of aware what was going on. I’m not going to get too caught up in location, trying to be perfect. I was going at them with heaters, and we did get a lot of foul balls, which is good. I thought it was good.”

What exactly was going on today during the Nats’ 5-5 exhibition tie at Clover Park? Gore, confident he was already ready for Opening Day and cognizant he’ll be facing the Mets plenty of times this season, opted to keep his pitching plan as basic as could be. He threw 47 fastballs, compared to only 13 curveballs, 12 changeups and two sliders.

If this game counted, he never would’ve done that, deploying much more deception in an attempt to induce way more than eight total whiffs from New York’s batters.

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. – Colin Poche has made the Nationals’ Opening Day bullpen, the club purchased the left-hander’s contract this morning to officially put him on the club.

Poche signed a minor league deal with an invitation to big league camp in early February, but given his track record, he always looked like a safe bet to make the team.

The 31-year-old has 225 games of major league experience, all with the Rays, and last season delivered a 3.86 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in 43 appearances. He was a 12-game winner with a 2.23 ERA in 66 games (all out of the bullpen) in 2023.

With Jose A. Ferrer the only other left-hander in the Nats bullpen, Poche was in good position all along to head north with the team, provided good health. His spring got off to a rough start when he surrendered three runs on four hits and two walks Feb. 25 against the Marlins, but he rebounded after that. In four appearances since, he has allowed just one run on two hits with one walk and six strikeouts.

Poche joins Ferrer, closer Kyle Finnegan and right-handers Jorge Lopez, Derek Law and Lucas Sims to fill out six of the eight slots in the Nationals bullpen. The final two remain up for grabs this weekend, with two traditional relievers and two young starters in the mix.

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. – It’s the penultimate day of spring training, which is really just an excuse to use the word penultimate. The Nationals finalized their Opening Day rotation and narrowed down the list of remaining candidates for backup catcher and 26th man on the bench Friday, but there are still a few more things to do. Chief among them: Finalize the bullpen, which for now still has 10 candidates for eight spots.

Today sees the Nats head north to face the Mets for the final road game of the spring. And it sees MacKenzie Gore take the mound for his final tune-up before his first career Opening Day start five days from now against the Phillies. Gore reached the 90-pitch mark in his last outing, and the plan actually is to dial him back today, conserving pitches and energy for the regular season.

Today’s lineup has some different looks. James Wood will lead off, with CJ Abrams and Dylan Crews staying back in West Palm Beach. Paul DeJong will play shortstop for the first time this spring, just a chance to remind him how things look at that position in case he’s needed there in an emergency during the season. And the two guys battling for the last spot on the bench (José Tena, Juan Yepez) are both starting, hoping to do something big that could lock up the job.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. NEW YORK METS
Where: Clover Park, Port St. Lucie
Gametime: 1:10 p.m. EDT
TV: MLB.tv (Mets’ feed)
Radio: None
Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees, wind 5 mph in from right field

NATIONALS
LF James Wood
DH Amed Rosario
2B Luis García Jr.
SS Paul DeJong
C Keibert Ruiz
RF Alex Call
1B Juan Yepez
3B José Tena
CF Jacob Young

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Everything was going swimmingly for Michael Soroka. He had bounced back from his first rough start of the spring, completing the first four innings of tonight’s start against the Marlins on a mere 48 pitches.

And then came the top of the fifth, at which point the narrative took a sharp turn in the opposite direction.

Unable to get out of that frame, Soroka threw a whopping 43 pitches to eight batters, ultimately charged with six runs to turn what should’ve been an encouraging finale to his spring schedule into a discouraging evening.

“It was clicking really, really well for four innings. And then guys get on, and I want to kind of try to be the hero, and again just do too much,” the right-hander said following a 6-0 loss to the Marlins in which the Nationals managed only two hits themselves. “I just lose track of it for a second, then you fight back, and hits fall and things happen. You’ve got to get out of those innings and not let it snowball like that.”

This was the second straight start Soroka allowed six runs, this after back-to-back scoreless outings. There are no more exhibitions for him to pitch; his next start will count.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – The Nationals have chosen Mitchell Parker as the final member of their Opening Day rotation, a decision that became official when they optioned both Shinnosuke Ogasawara and DJ Herz to Triple-A Rochester.

The Nats also optioned infielder Nasim Nuñez and catcher Drew Millas to Rochester, narrowing their list of remaining candidates for the last spot on the bench and the backup catcher to two apiece.

The competition for the fifth starter’s job was the most compelling one in camp from the day pitchers and catchers reported last month. Any one of the three left-handers could have claimed it, but ultimately it was clear Parker deserved it over the others.

Parker, who went 7-10 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in 29 big league starts last season, had a solid-but-not-spectacular spring. Over 12 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.65 ERA and 1.216 WHIP, improving each step of the way.

Manager Davey Martinez hasn’t announced his rotation order to begin the year aside from naming MacKenzie Gore the Opening Day starter, but Parker has been lined up for a while to pitch the third game, the Nationals perhaps preferring to use a lefty against the Phillies lineup.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – There’s a bit of a chill in the air here in South Florida. OK, maybe not the kind of chill all of you back home have dealt with the last six weeks, but just enough to make this feel a little more like the kind of springtime weather we’re all going to experience soon enough when the season begins.

The Nationals play their third-to-last Grapefruit League game this evening, hosting the Marlins. All of the contenders for spots in the rotation have run out of time to make their cases, so these remaining starts will all go to guys guaranteed to make the team. That includes Michael Soroka, who tonight will look to bounce back from his first (and only) shaky start of the spring.

The rotation question may have resolved itself at this point, but there are still several other jobs up for grabs during these final days. So these remain important games for the backup catchers, potential bench players and the relievers fighting for the two open slots on the Opening Day roster.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. MIAMI MARLINS
Where: CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach
Gametime: 6:05 p.m. EDT
TV: None
Radio: MLB.com (Marlins’ feed)
Weather: Clear, 66 degrees, wind 12 mph in from left field

NATIONALS
SS CJ Abrams
RF Dylan Crews
LF James Wood
DH Josh Bell
1B Nathaniel Lowe
2B Amed Rosario
3B José Tena
C Riley Adams
CF Jacob Young

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – It’s officially the home stretch of spring training.

The Nationals have three more days here in Florida, with an exhibition tonight against the Marlins, Saturday against the Mets and then split-squad games Sunday against the Astros and Cardinals. Then they fly north for Monday’s exhibition finale against the Orioles. And then it’s time for the real thing.

Over the course of the last 5 1/2 weeks, the Nats have taken care of plenty of business. But for the most part, any roster decisions they made were no-brainers. They haven’t really had to make a hard decision yet.

That changes this weekend, when Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez have to settle on a 26-man Opening Day roster. They can’t put off these decisions any longer. It’s time to make the final calls on several position battles.

Here’s where those battles stand …

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – If this was one final opportunity for Shinnosuke Ogasawara to make his case for a spot in the Nationals’ rotation, he was going to have to do something eye-opening tonight against a tough Mets lineup.

Instead, the Japanese left-hander provided more of the same. And in the process probably sealed his fate.

Unable to put hitters away, Ogasawara racked up a gargantuan pitch count and didn’t even make it through the fourth inning in what wound up a 10-3 loss to New York.

The Nationals wanted to get Ogasawara up to at least 90 pitches, but the hope was he would reach the sixth inning in the process. Instead, he was already at 80 after only three laborious frames. He came back to face five more batters in the fourth and then departed with a hefty 98 pitches through in 3 2/3 innings, having surrendered eight runs on eight hits and three walks.

“He’s always been a strike-thrower,” manager Davey Martinez said. “For me, that’s a (sign) that he’s still trying to search for things. He’s got to pound the zone. The times he did get ahead, he was good. And I know he can throw strikes, because he’s done it.”

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – It was one simulated inning against a couple of teammates on a back field with a few interested onlookers. Nothing to get too excited about.

For Cade Cavalli, though, this was a significant step toward the ultimate goal of regularly pitching for the Nationals this season.

Cavalli, still trying to make it all the way back from his March 2023 Tommy John surgery, faced live hitters this afternoon for the first time this spring. With José Tena and Juan Yepez taking turns in the batter’s box, Cavalli threw all of his pitches from the mound, impressing those hitters who had to dig in against him.

“Nasty,” said Yepez when asked how Cavalli looked. He was especially complimentary of the right-hander’s curveball, which induced a few swings and misses during the brief session.

Cavalli, by all accounts, is healthy at this point. His frustrating 2025 season included three minor league rehab starts, several simulated games and multiple shutdowns for various reasons. He ended the year feeling good but had run out of time to pitch in a game.