It’s Opening Day, and you know what that means? Yes, it’s time for the 14th annual Nationals Beat Writer Season Predictions!

A few of the participants have remained constant through the years. A few have come and gone and come back. And a few are still relatively new to the festivities. All of us, however, will most certainly make fools of ourselves with some of our predictions.

There’s actually a decent range of guesses in most categories this year, with general consensus in only a few of them. (Josiah Gray, apparently, is a lock to win exactly 11 games this season. Who knew?)

Everlasting thanks to my colleagues for subjecting themselves to the humiliation again. Remember, we’ll be republishing these at the end of the season to find out who actually had a clue and who did not.

And if you’re brave enough to put your (screen) name on your own predictions, you are more than welcome to share those in the comments section below …

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – MacKenzie Gore faced 21 batters today, against a Yankees lineup that included a number of regulars including Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton. He threw a first-pitch strike to 17 of them, including 12 of the first 13 who stepped to the plate at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches.

“That’s beautiful,” the Nationals left-hander said when informed of the stat.

“Love it,” manager Davey Martinez responded.

It’s a simple maxim of pitching, and it applies to everyone: Throw strike one. But it felt especially important today for Gore, who had slogged his way through a few uninspired starts this spring and entered this one determined to right the ship.

How important was it to Gore’s chances of success this afternoon? It produced the following pitching line: six innings, two hits, zero runs, one walk, eight strikeouts on 81 pitches. The outcome of the game – a 5-2 exhibition win over the Yankees in front of the lone sellout crowd of the spring here – may not matter. But the performance most certainly did to the Nationals starter.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – I think it’s finally safe to say we’ve reached the final countdown of spring training. Starting pitchers are going five or six innings. Position players are getting four or five plate appearances. Relievers are throwing back-to-back days. And Joey Meneses is back in Nationals camp.

Meneses, who became an international sensation over the last two weeks playing for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic, has rejoined the Nationals and is right back in there this afternoon, batting third and starting in left field. Davey Martinez has said he wants Meneses to get some time in the outfield, because there’s a chance he’ll play out there when Corey Dickerson has a day off (most likely against lefties). So the big slugger is out there today against the Yankees.

Martinez’s lineup might well be what we see on Opening Day. At the very least, these are probably the nine names who will be out there next Thursday. The only question is what the batting order will be.

MacKenzie Gore, meanwhile, faces an important start today. He has not looked good the last few weeks, and he knows it. Now the young lefty has to see if he can get himself straightened out against a Yankees lineup that actually includes several big names, including Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. NEW YORK YANKEES
Where: The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches
Gametime: 1:05 p.m. EDT
TV: None
Radio: None
Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees, wind 9 mph in from right field

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Spring training numbers mean as much or as little as you want them to, but here are the numbers now for MacKenzie Gore through five Grapefruit League starts: 11 earned runs, 21 hits, three homers, six walks, nine strikeouts in 14 innings. That’s a 7.07 ERA and 1.929 WHIP.

Whether it portends real struggles when the season begins in two weeks or not, Gore isn’t satisfied with his own performance to date.

“The line at some point is saying something,” the Nationals left-hander said. “But we’re just going to keep working. I just need to pitch a little better.”

Gore needed to pitch a lot better Friday afternoon during his latest (and worst) outing of the spring. He did not enjoy one clean inning among the four he pitched. He surrendered four runs during a long third inning that required 34 pitches to complete. He served up home runs to the Astros’ Jeremy Peña in consecutive innings. All told, he was charged with five runs on nine hits and two walks, while throwing only 49 of his 82 pitches for strikes.

And, as has become clear over the last several weeks, Gore found plenty of reasons to be upset with himself for another showing that fell below his standards.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – As we inch closer to Opening Day, teams start having more regulars in the lineup. And that’s going to be even more the case as various World Baseball Classic teams get eliminated.

For the Nationals, the elimination of the powerhouse Dominican Republic team means the return of Jeimer Candelario, who is right back in there and starting at third base today against the Astros. We should also see Erasmo Ramirez (who pitched for Nicaragua) pitching in a game soon.

The Astros also have a decent number of regulars in their lineup today, including Jeremy Peña, Jose Abreu and Alex Bregman. So this should be a good test for MacKenzie Gore, who makes his fifth start of the spring.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. HOUSTON ASTROS
Where: The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches
Gametime: 1:05 p.m. EDT
TV: None
Radio: nationals.com
Weather: Partly cloudy, 79 degrees, wind 15 mph out to left field

NATIONALS
CF Alex Call
2B Luis García
C Keibert Ruiz
LF Corey Dickerson
3B Jeimer Candelario
1B Matt Adams
RF Stone Garrett
DH Victor Robles
SS Leonel Valera

JUPITER, Fla. – MacKenzie Gore walked around the mound during the bottom of the second at Roger Dean Stadium with little reason to be excited about the way this start was going. Five of the first eight Cardinals batters he faced in today’s exhibition had reached base, three via extra-base hit, with all kinds of loud contact off him.

On the heels of another disappointing spring outing in this same ballpark, this was shaping up to be a particularly frustrating afternoon for the Nationals left-hander.

By the time he walked off the mound at the end of the fourth inning, Gore’s mood had dramatically changed. After retiring eight of the last nine batters he faced, there was at last reason to be encouraged by the manner in which he salvaged this start.

“In the past, I’ve let games like that balloon into six, eight runs. So that was good,” he said. “We came back, and the last two innings were much better than the first two.”

Not that this was an overwhelmingly positive day for Gore, or for the Nationals, who lost 5-1 to a St. Louis team with 17 absent players right now because of the World Baseball Classic. Only two of the nine Cardinals batters who faced Gore today are likely to make the Opening Day roster: backup catcher Andrew Knizner and outfielder Alec Burleson.

JUPITER, Fla. – A very pleasant Sunday morning to you, wherever you may be. Hope you remembered to adjust your clocks last night. The Nationals certainly wish that wasn’t necessary after playing a 3-hour night game, then losing an hour of sleep before a 1:05 p.m. game on tap today. Brilliant scheduling there.

Davey Martinez let the boys report later than usual this morning, so hopefully everyone’s well rested. MacKenzie Gore should be just fine, because he didn’t have to stick around for the entire game last night in advance of his start. The left-hander takes the mound for the fourth time this spring, the third time at Roger Dean Stadium, the second time to face the Cardinals. He wasn’t thrilled with his last outing, when he allowed two runs (one earned) over three innings. He’ll try to make some improvements today and extend to four innings.

Gore won’t be facing a whole lot of familiar names this afternoon, with the Cardinals sending a bunch of backups and prospects out there. They will, however, have a veteran on the mound in Steven Matz, so we’ll see how the Nats handle him.

You can listen to Charlie Slowes and Dave Jageler with the radio call of the game on 106.7 FM. Or if you’re an MLB.tv subscriber, you can watch the Cardinals’ television broadcast live. Or you can wait until 10 p.m. EDT and watch the replay on MLB Network.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Where: Roger Dean Stadium, Jupiter
Gametime: 1:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MLB.tv (Cardinals broadcast), MLB Network (delayed at 10 p.m.)
Radio: 106.7 FM, MLB.com
Weather: Mostly sunny, 84 degrees, wind 9 mph out to left field

JUPITER, Fla. – The sun was shining, the pitch clock was ticking and MacKenzie Gore was pumping strikes against the meat of the Cardinals’ A lineup en route to a scoreless inning in his Nationals debut.

“Not much more I can ask for after an outing like that,” catcher Riley Adams said. “I thought he was really dialed in.”

The Nats’ 2023 exhibition opener – a come-from-behind, 3-2 victory over St. Louis played in a brisk 2 hours, 26 minutes – featured some nice late-inning rallies, quality pitching throughout and a couple of violations of Major League Baseball’s brand-new pitch clock. But the most important development on an 84-degree Saturday afternoon at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium in the big picture was Gore’s long-awaited debut for the team that acquired him last summer.

Sidelined with an elbow injury at the time of the blockbuster trade with the Padres, Gore couldn’t make it back in time to start a game before season’s end. So his debut in a curly W cap was delayed until this afternoon in the Grapefruit League opener. It wasn’t nearly as big a deal as his official regular season debut in five weeks will be, but the 24-year-old lefty teased everyone just enough in one inning to heighten the anticipation for his starts that actually count.

“I thought it was good,” the understated Gore said. “I thought we were building off what we did in the (live batting practice sessions earlier this week). There are just some things that need to get better, but yeah, I thought it was pretty solid overall.”

JUPITER, Fla. – Anyone interested in playing ball today? Because there’s a ballgame on the schedule this afternoon.

The Nationals open Grapefruit League play with a road game against the Cardinals, and though they aren’t bringing that many regulars on the short trip from West Palm Beach, there are some key names to watch. The top three of Davey Martinez’s lineup, as promised, features CJ Abrams, Luis García and Joey Meneses.

As mentioned earlier, don’t take that as evidence he plans to bat Abrams and García in the top two spots come Opening Day. This is more about getting them two or three at-bats today and getting them out of there. Meneses, of course, probably will be the team’s No. 3 hitter once the season begins.

We’ll also get our first look at Stone Garrett, a hulking outfielder acquired from the Diamondbacks who is trying to make the club coming off the bench. Garrett can produce some big-time power when he makes contact. The trick is actually making contact. We’ll also get a look today at young Jeremy De La Rosa, the 21-year-old prospect who isn’t in the mix for an Opening Day job – he hasn’t even reached Double-A yet – but remains highly touted within the organization.

The most significant person playing today for the Nationals, though, has to be MacKenzie Gore. The left-hander finally makes his team debut after spending the last three months of the 2022 season rehabbing from an elbow injury suffered in San Diego. Gore may only go one inning, but he’ll be facing some big-time St. Louis hitters.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – MacKenzie Gore’s first start in a Nationals uniform will come in the Nationals’ first game of the spring.

Gore has been picked to start Saturday’s Grapefruit League opener against the Cardinals in Jupiter, manager Davey Martinez revealed today. He’s slated to throw 25-30 pitches, perhaps completing only one inning.

“He’s ready,” Martinez said. “He’s thrown multiple (live batting practice sessions against hitters), so he’s ready to go. I’m excited to watch him go out there and pitch.”

It’ll be Gore’s long-awaited first appearance as a member of the Nationals, even if it comes in an exhibition game. The left-hander, who turns 24 on Friday, was one of the marquee prospects acquired from the Padres in last summer’s trade for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, but he spent the rest of the season rehabbing from elbow inflammation.

Gore wound up making four rehab starts at Triple-A Rochester and appeared on track to make his Nats debut during the season’s final week. But the club decided not to bother, worried his arm and body weren’t built back up enough to start what would’ve been a meaningless game at the end of the year.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – While Wednesday’s news about Stephen Strasburg – he’s been shut down again after experiencing another setback in his latest attempt to return from thoracic outlet surgery – proved to be the biggest headline on Day 1 of Nationals spring training, truthfully, the bigger story was the presence of three other pitchers stationed along one wall of the home clubhouse.

Much as they hope Strasburg can still have a positive impact for this club, the Nats already have transitioned to building the next generation of their rotation on the broad shoulders of three young starters: MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray.

Strasburg may not be healthy at the moment, but those other three guys are. And that probably has more significance to the franchise’s long-term well-being than anything.

“Starting pitching is very important if you want to compete in the big leagues and have a good team,” Gore said. “The starters need to … good teams have good starting pitching. There’s a responsibility that we have a job to do. I think that’s probably the best way to put it.”

There’s a responsibility, and there’s also a certain amount of pressure on Gore, Cavalli and Gray to live up to their billing. The Nationals’ chances of kicking their rebuild into serious gear rest in large part on the development of those three into frontline, big-league starters.

We’ve reached the final countdown to spring training, so we’re counting down the biggest storylines facing the Nationals this spring in West Palm Beach. We continue today with a look at a rotation that is counting on the healthy return of multiple starters …

If the Nationals are going to show significant improvement in 2023, if this franchise is going to take a big step forward in its rebuilding process this year, it is almost certainly going to coincide with a major turnaround from what was the majors’ worst rotation in 2022.

What used to be the organization’s unquestioned strength was its unquestioned No. 1 weakness last season. The rotation finished with an abysmal 5.97 ERA, an abysmal 30-86 record and a 1.563 WHIP that was the worst mark by any major league rotation since the 2012 Rockies.

How could the situation improve this season? The best hope comes in the form of two young potential building blocks with all the ability in the world but little track record, at least while wearing a Nationals uniform.

Cade Cavalli made one start for the Nats last year. MacKenzie Gore made none. That won’t be the case this year. If it is, the franchise is in serious trouble.

As the start of spring training gets closer and closer – pitchers and catchers report to West Palm Beach in a mere nine days! – we’re looking at how unpredictable the upcoming season could be for each member of the Nationals’ potential roster on an individual basis.

With few established players that look like sure things entering the year, there’s a wide variance of possibilities in each case. We looked at the nine likely members of the lineup Friday. Today, we look at the pitchers most likely to be in the mix for spots on the Opening Day roster.

Here’s the best-case and worst-case scenario for the 2023 season for each of them …

MACKENZIE GORE
Best case: His elbow back to full health, the lefty picks up where he left off during the first half of last season in San Diego. Over 30 starts, he maintains an ERA around 3.00, striking out more than one batter per inning and establishing himself as the young leader of this rotation moving forward.
Worst case: A return of elbow discomfort would really be worst-case, but even if his arm feels fine there’s still a fear of diminished velocity and stamina. A fastball in the low 90s, combined with less-than-ideal command, could leave the Nationals questioning if he really will live up to his billing long-term.

CADE CAVALLI
Best case: Fresh off a restful winter, with his major league debut already behind him, Cavalli proves he’s ready to stick in the big league for the long haul. The Nats are still careful with his workload, limiting him to 26 starts or 140 innings, but he makes the most of those outings with a sub-3.50 ERA and more than 150 strikeouts.
Worst case: Even with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, if he doesn’t maintain precise command, big league hitters will have success off that pitch. His secondary stuff helps bail him out sometimes, but a high WHIP leaves him looking like something less than a frontline starter.

The Nationals were bad last year, but you already know that. They want to be better this year, and you probably do, too.

But will they be better? That’s what we’re attempting to predict the last two days.

Though there’s still a month to go until spring training, and more additions or subtractions are possible, the Nats have already assembled what looks like it could be their Opening Day roster. So it’s not too early for this exercise.

We looked at position players yesterday, running through each of the positions (included designated hitter). Today, we look at the pitching staff, running through each slot in the rotation, plus multiple bullpen roles. Will the 2023 Nationals be better, worse or the same as the 2022 Nationals? Here we go …

NO. 1 STARTER: Slightly better, you have to hope
Who was the Nationals’ No. 1 starter last year? Patrick Corbin started Opening Day and threw the most innings. Josiah Gray led the staff in wins and strikeouts. Aníbal Sánchez (?!) led the starters in WAR. Point is, they don’t have a No. 1 guy, not yet. So for these purposes, we’ll go with Corbin and just look at how he may fare in 2023 vs. 2022. Enough has been said and written about the left-hander, who has steadily devolved over the last three seasons into the worst starter in baseball. He’s not going anywhere, not with two years still left on his contract. So, can he be better than 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP? You sure hope so, don’t you? Nobody’s going to suggest he can return to his elite 2019 form anymore. But it is fair to think he could become somewhat more respectable, and the main reason for that would be better defense behind him. His 4.83 FIP last season suggests he wasn’t solely to blame for his wretched numbers. Let’s see if an entire year of CJ Abrams at shortstop might actually bring Corbin’s ERA down under 5.00, which would have to be considered a major win.

Once the shock of the trade wore off – and, yes, it was shocking, given the magnitude of last August’s deal – MacKenzie Gore’s focus shifted to one clear-cut objective: Pitch for the Nationals in 2022.

A resident of the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation when he was one of six players shipped by the Padres to the Nationals for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, Gore knew he was going to need some time to rehab and build his arm back up. But he believed he’d be ready to make his Nats debut before season’s end.

When it didn’t happen, there were conflicting emotions.

“Yeah, I wanted to pitch,” Gore said this week in an interview for the "Nationals Hot Stove Show" on MASN. “I wasn’t throwing when I got traded, so I wanted to get back out there. That’s the best way to get to know guys. But I also understood we needed to be smart. I needed to be smart. I knew why I got to where I was, so I understood.”

Gore’s rehab wasn’t a failure, by any stretch. He made four September rehab starts for Triple-A Rochester and had no issues with his elbow along the way. But he did feel fatigued in his final outing, one in which he served up three homers in 3 2/3 innings.

The Nationals’ offseason moves to date have been, well, less than inspired.

They signed Jeimer Candelario for one year and $5 million, then Trevor Williams for two years and $13 million. They acquired, via the Rule 5 draft and the waiver wire, unproven players named Thad Ward, Stone Garrett and A.J. Alexy. They brought back sentimental favorites Sean Doolittle and Matt Adams on minor league deals. And they’re now on the verge of bringing back Erasmo Ramirez for one year and perhaps as much as $2 million if he hits all his incentives.

Not exactly a rousing Hot Stove League to date. Certainly not compared to the rest of the National League East, which has seen the Mets, Phillies and Braves continue to bolster what already were playoff rosters with even more talent and even more dollars devoted to payroll.

It’s frustrating, for fans and team employees alike who were hoping for a bit more financial commitment from ownership on the heels of a 107-loss season.

Are the 2023 Nationals as currently constructed any better than the 2022 Nationals were? It sure doesn’t look like it on paper. They might even be worse, hard as that is to believe.

Though there’s been a bit of movement on the free agent market elsewhere, we’re still in the preliminary stages of the offseason around here. The Nationals have yet to add anybody to the fold, focusing instead on which players to add to their 40-man roster and which players to remove from the equation.

But now that they’ve completed those tasks, it’s fair to wonder when they’ll start moving onto free agency and addressing a handful of significant needs. (It’s also fair to wonder if they’ll be able to address any of those needs while the club is still for sale, but we’ve already raised that question and there’s not much more to say about that for now.)

So let’s proceed as if Mark Lerner has given Mike Rizzo the green light to spend some money this winter. Not gobs of money, but enough money to fill roster holes with actual free agents, not just bargain-basement pickups.

The Nationals have multiple needs. We’ll focus today on a particularly important one: starting pitching.

The 2022 rotation ranked dead-last in the majors in ERA (5.97) by a longshot, last in WHIP (1.563), last in walks per nine innings (3.76), last in strikeouts per walk (1.97), last in homers allowed (161). It’s hard to believe they finished with the majors’ worst record as well, isn’t it?

PLAYER REVIEW: MACKENZIE GORE

Age on opening day 2023: 24

How acquired: Traded from Padres with CJ Abrams, Luke Voit, Robert Hassell III, James Wood and Jarlin Susana for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, August 2022

MLB service time: 1 year

2022 salary: $700,000

NEW YORK – There is no way to sugarcoat a 55-107 season, no silver lining to setting a club record for losses, no justifying the worst record in baseball.

This was, undoubtedly, the worst of the Nationals’ 18 seasons since they arrived in the District in 2005. They lost more games than the awful 2008-09 teams. The rotation’s 5.97 ERA was far worse than the dreadful 2006 (5.37) or 2020 (5.38) starters’ numbers. Their 17-59 record and .224 winning percentage against the National League East was not only the worst in club history, it was the worst in major league history since divisional play began in 1969.

Oh, and they also traded away a 22-year-old generational star, not because they didn’t want him, but because they believed it was the only way they could restock a farm system that was barren because of their own inability to draft and develop future big leaguers over much of the last decade.

How could the Nationals try to claim the 2022 season was successful? They can’t.

What they can do, and what they are trying to do, is believe this rock-bottom season was a necessary step toward something better in the future. That by losing to this extent now and refocusing efforts on rebuilding that barren farm system, they will be in a better position to win again sooner than they would be if they didn’t take this drastic step backward.

The Nationals have decided not to give MacKenzie Gore a start before season’s end, not wanting to push the left-hander to come off the injured list given the shaky weekend forecast and his stamina issues during a lengthy minor league rehab stint.

Gore, who was acquired from the Padres while on the 15-day IL with left elbow inflammation, had been building himself back up with the intention of making one or two big league starts before the season ends. And after throwing 72 pitches over 3 2/3 innings Monday in his fourth rehab outing for Triple-A Rochester, he expressed optimism he’d make a start against the Phillies this weekend, even if he was limited to three or four innings.

But after conversations with manager Davey Martinez and general manager Mike Rizzo, Gore was told his season would end now, with an offseason plan implemented to help him build up more strength and stamina heading into spring training.

“For me, that’s good enough,” Martinez said. “When we started this and started your rehab stuff, that’s the point we wanted to get to. For me, if it was something different – if we didn’t have enough pitchers, or whatever, which we do – it would be a different conversation. But I don’t want to push it. I think we’re in a good spot right now.”

Gore had totaled 70 big league innings for the Padres before going on the IL in late July, going 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.472 WHIP and 72 strikeouts, those numbers turning worse as he was beginning to deal with his elbow issue. He was highly motivated to come back and pitch for the Nationals, but the organization doesn’t feel like he needs to prove anything to them.