For years, Orioles fans have entered each new season anticipating the debut of one of the game’s top prospects. Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday and, most recently, Samuel Basallo, had the promise of rapidly changing the franchise upon their arrival. 

Baltimore’s farm got a big upgrade last summer, both at the trade deadline and through the draft. Even still, barring a prospect’s rapid ascent, the Orioles will be without a debut of a top-75 prospect in the game, according to MLB Pipeline, for the first time since 2021. 

Don’t mistake that fact for the O’s not getting an impact from the farm, though. 

On this week’s edition of “The Bird’s Nest,” which you can watch here, Annie Klaff and I discussed some of the prospects that could debut this season. 

Enrique Bradfield Jr. 

The gauntlet, more commonly known as the AL East, is unrelenting. 

Featuring three major-market teams and two others considered to be some of the most forward thinking in the game, the division is oft-considered the best in baseball. Stars are acquired and developed at a medal pace. 

As such, the Orioles have done their best to keep up with that torrid stride this offseason, signing one of the best hitters the game has to offer in Pete Alonso, and trading for another power threat in Taylor Ward. The rest of the AL East hasn’t fared as well. 

Among players with at least 100 games in Boston in 2025, Alex Bregman led the team in both batting average, at .273, and OPS, at .821. They’ll be without his services in 2026, as Bregman is reportedly heading to the north side of Chicago on a five-year deal.

Boston also won’t get 73 games out of Rafael Devers, who, ironically, was dealt to San Francisco due, in part, to Bregman’s presence at third. Now, the Sox are left with neither. Former top prospect Marcelo Mayer projects to slot in at third, while Boston will look to the newly-acquired Wilson Contreras to replace Bregman’s production in the middle of the lineup. 

Even the most exciting names claimed on the waiver wire are still just that: waiver wire additions. Their stays on a 40-man roster are far from guaranteed. 

Jhonkensy Noel, designated for assignment just two days after he was claimed off of waivers from the Cleveland Guardians, is the latest example. Big Christmas, a corner outfielder with experience at first base, struggled mightily to tap into his power potential in 2025 after bursting onto the season the previous year. Plus, in Baltimore, a laundry list of names at his primary positions sat ahead of him for playing time. As such, he’s free to be claimed by another team once again. 

Taking Noel’s spot on the roster, ironically, is another big-name waiver claim: Marco Luciano.

That name may ring a quieter bell, as Luciano hasn’t found the same kind of big league success as Noel. But the former international signing was once considered to be one of the best prospects in the game, ranked as high as the No. 13 in baseball entering the 2022 season, according to MLB Pipeline. 

Could this big-name waiver claim fare better than his predecessor? 

On Oct. 17, 2024, the Guardians were one out away from finding themselves in a nearly insurmountable hole.

Luke Weaver, a failed starter turned high-leverage Yankees reliever, had the chance to give New York a 3-0 advantage in the American League Championship Series. All he had to do was put away a 22-year-old pinch-hitter with 74 big league games under his belt: Jhonkensy Noel.

Big Christmas, as he’s called, didn’t go down so easily.

On a 1-0 count, Noel punished a Weaver changeup that caught too much of the plate and drove it into deep left field for a game-tying two-run homer. It pushed the game to extras, where the Guardians emerged victorious. Cleveland lost the series, but between Noel’s heroic moment and his .958 OPS in the series, it seemed as if they had found a new middle-of-the-order bat for years to come.

The catchy nickname didn’t hurt, either.

The offseason feels slow, doesn’t it? Or does it always? 

The free agent market in Major League Baseball, much like the season itself, is more of a slow burn as compared to its football and basketball counterparts. In the National Football League, the biggest deals are often agreed to within the first few days of the signing period. Miraculously, mammoth National Basketball Association contracts are signed within minutes of the official window’s opening. 

Talk about some high-quality negotiation skills. 

We’re nearly two months removed from the start of MLB’s free agency and some of the top names - including Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Framber Valdez - are still available. Just how typical is this shortage of activity, and what could it say about the market moving forward? 

More specifically, with arms like Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen still available, and with the Orioles potentially on the pitching hunt, even after the additions of Shane Baz and Zach Eflin, what could the starting pitching landscape look like for Baltimore as we enter the new year? 

Signing Zach Eflin to a one-year deal, with a mutual option for 2027, wasn’t necessarily the huge starting rotation splash that many hoped Baltimore would make. Eflin’s status to begin the 2026 season, even, is uncertain. 

However, if the veteran right-hander gets back to his old self at some point in 2026, the Orioles have significantly raised both their floor and ceiling in the rotation for the upcoming campaign.

Let’s not forget what that “old self” looked like, despite a disappointing 2025. 

Eflin was acquired by the Orioles at the 2024 trade deadline in exchange for a prospect haul, and he didn’t disappoint in his debut stint in orange and black. The righty, fresh off of a sixth-place Cy Young finish in the previous season, posted a 2.60 ERA in nine starts for Baltimore to end the year.

To start 2025, he picked up right where he left off. 

September, 2025 showcased exactly what the Orioles had hoped for: Coby Mayo showed flashes of being an everyday player. 

Ryan Mountcastle’s injury and Ryan O’Hearn’s new home in San Diego meant that Mayo had the keys to first base after the trade deadline. After recording just 12 hits in 25 games in August, the Florida native flipped a switch along with the calendar. 

In those 24 September contests, Mayo slapped 22 hits, eight of which went for extra bases. The result was a batting average over .300 and a .941 OPS in the month, showcasing why he had been such a highly-touted prospect across baseball. 

Mayo seemed primed to man first in Baltimore for seasons to come. That is, until Pete Alonso came to town. 

It’s not every offseason that you have the opportunity to acquire a player capable of playing all 162 games, mashing 40 home runs and driving in 125 teammates, but that’s what Alonso brings to Baltimore. Mayo very well could turn into that kind of player in the future, but the Orioles are aware of their current window of opportunity. 

The O’s rotation, in need of help, just added a flamethrower. 

Today, Baltimore acquired right-hander Shane Baz in exchange for prospects Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret and Austin Overn, as well as a Competitive Balance Round A selection. According to MLB Pipeline, Forret slots in as the Rays’ No. 5 prospect with de Brun right behind him. Bodine checks in at No. 11 and Overn at No. 20. 

That’s a steep price, but one that the O’s were willing to pay for a young, controllable arm that could help the club in both the short- and long-term. 

You may remember Baz, the 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft, as one of the key pieces that Tampa Bay acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the now-infamous Chris Archer trade. The righty has long been considered to be one of the most intriguing young arms in the game, being ranked as high as the 12th-best prospect in baseball entering the 2022 season. 

That No. 12 ranking, ironically, was the second-highest for a pitching prospect that season behind only Grayson Rodriguez. 

There were a few glaring needs for the Orioles entering this pivotal offseason. Others weren’t so obvious. 

Due to Félix Bautista’s injury, Baltimore was left without a reliever with extensive closing experience. More injury concerns and free agent departures created holes in the starting rotation, and a busy trade deadline saw bullpen arms shipped away for prospects. 

On the position player side, similar injury concerns, combined with underperformance, created questions about the lineup’s feasibility heading into 2026. 

The additions of Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge, among others, have addressed many, but not all of those concerns. With shakeups to the roster, Annie Klaff and I took inventory of where Baltimore currently stands and what is left to be done on this week’s edition of “The Bird’s Nest,” which you can watch here. 

What will the Orioles do at first base? 

Trevor Rogers’ 2025 season wasn’t really a “breakout.” It was more like a return to form with better returns. 

The league saw flashes of what Rogers could be during the 2021 season. In that campaign, his rookie season in Miami, the big lefty was an All-Star, posting a 2.64 ERA and striking out 10.6 batters per nine innings.  

From there, though, things took a turn for the worse. 

The following season, Rogers’ ERA skyrocketed to a 5.47 as almost all of his underlying metrics got significantly worse. He appeared in just four games in 2023 before a disastrous 2024 season that showcased diminished velocity and an extended stay in Triple-A. 

You know the drill from there. 

As first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan and confirmed by Roch Kubatko and others, there’s a Polar Bear coming to Baltimore. 

What exactly does Pete Alonso bring to the table?

Most evidently, pop. Alonso is one of the best power bats that the game has to offer. Since entering the league in 2019, a season in which he led all of baseball with 53 longballs, Alonso has the third-most home runs of any player, trailing only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber, and the most runs driven in with 712. 

He’s not just a power hitter, either. Last season, his .272 batting average was 16th-best in the National League, and his .347 on-base percentage was 21st. While he did strike out 162 times, his 22.8 percent strikeout rate was only slightly below league average.

While that batting average was 20 points higher than his career average, his underlying metrics would suggest that it was no fluke. 

The Orioles know how to draft. 

The 2019 class, the first in the Mike Elias era, produced a Rookie of the Year Award winner and a runner-up with a combined 36.5 bWAR in their careers, plus some key trade pieces. In 2020, they found another All-Star. The 2021 draft brought another Rookie of the Year runner-up and 2022 produced the highest-ranked prospect in baseball. You get the point. 

A down 2025 at the big league level was, of course, disappointing, but it did bring some benefits. At the trade deadline, Baltimore was able to reload a farm system that had been running thinner than usual due to promotions and trades. Tonight, the O’s reaped another reward: a high draft pick. 

Entering the evening, Baltimore had the fourth-best odds at landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. All non-playoff teams are eligible for the Draft Lottery, and three teams with a worse winning percentage than the Orioles were ineligible based on past drafts. The O’s benefited. 

So, at pick No. 7, Baltimore has another golden opportunity to add to their impressive draft record. Here’s a quick rundown of some of the (very early) top players in next year’s draft class.

It’s easy for offseason waiver claims to slip through the cracks. 

Thaddeus Ward and René Pinto, claimed on the same day last November, didn’t end up seeing any major league playing time in 2025. Sam Hilliard, a claim in 2024, didn’t make an impact, either. 

Once in a while, though, an offseason waiver claim ends up contributing. 

Cole Sulser, claimed back in 2019, became part of a deal that netted the O’s a high draft pick and a couple of prospects. The same can be said for Bryan Baker, whose 3.73 ERA in Baltimore enticed the Rays to part with a high pick of their own. And, of course, how about the claim of Ramón Urías in 2020? The do-it-all infielder accumulated over 10.0 bWAR in his Orioles career. 

Baltimore is hoping that Drew Romo, recently claimed off waivers from the Rockies, falls into the latter category. 

There isn’t a Grayson Rodriguez or a DL Hall in the Orioles’ minor league system. That’s now true for the major leagues, too. 

For years, Rodriguez and Hall were touted as the future of Baltimore’s rotation. Both were among the 100 best prospects in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, with Rodriguez even entering the 2022 season as the highest-ranked pitching prospect in the game. 

What the Orioles lacked behind them, though, was depth. Dating back to 2019, when Mike Elias and company took the reins, all the way to 2023, Rodriguez and Hall were No. 1 and No. 2 in the org’s pitching prospect rankings. 

The names behind them in ‘19 included Dean Kremer, now a fixture in the O’s rotation, and Keegan Akin, a solid reliever. In December of 2019, Baltimore added Kyle Bradish, who became their No. 21 prospect. At the time, Pipeline noted his “middle-of-the-rotation ceiling.” Fair to say Bradish expanded on that. 

Along the way, there were plenty of arms that profiled as potential back-end starters. Bradish and Kremer, of course, panned out and exceeded expectations. But there were other names that didn’t, like Zac Lowther, Blaine Knight, Mike Baumann, Drew Rom, Cody Sedlock, Kevin Smith and others. 

Not all seasons are created equally.

Rookie years are for making mistakes and learning from them. Final seasons are for curtain calls and flowers. Contract years are for playing your best baseball in hopes of a big payday.

2025 was Ryan Helsley’s contract year, and it didn’t go exactly as he’d hoped.

Entering the season, the flamethrowing right-hander looked like one of the best relievers in the game. His previous three seasons in St. Louis included two All-Star appearances, thanks to a 1.83 ERA, more than a dozen strikeouts per nine innings, a WHIP under 1.000 and 82 saves.

In fact, in 2024, Helsley led all of baseball in saves with 49, one of just two pitchers to even reach 40.

“I live in a small town, and to avoid dealing with ex girlfriend’s moms, they go ‘oh do you still play for the Angels,’” Taylor Ward said with a laugh. “And I say ‘yeah, sure, yeah.’ So now, it’s one of those ‘oh hey, you just got traded to Baltimore!’” 

He had, of course, not been traded to the Orioles. That would be quite a career shift for Ward, who has been covering the Angels for Baseball America since 2013. 

Instead, it was a player that he had covered for a long time in Anaheim, Joseph Taylor Ward, who goes by Taylor, that had been sent to Baltimore in exchange for Grayson Rodriguez. 

“We actually played baseball against each other a long time ago, high school days,” Baseball America’s Ward said of the new O’s outfielder. “His introduction after getting drafted, the PR Director was introducing him in the Angels’ media room and said ‘we’re going to start our questions with Taylor Ward.’ And I said ‘hey Taylor,’ and he looked at me and it was one of those connections of like ‘we’ve met before but where have we met.’ And I said ‘I’m Taylor Ward,’ and he said ‘I’m Taylor Ward,’ and it was an old connection that kind of came to fruition.” 

The duo, a reporter and a player sharing the same name, were the center of plenty of jokes in the clubhouse and on social media. So, on the day when the outfielder was traded, you can imagine what the day was like for the reporter. 

The Orioles had a question mark in the outfield, a query resolved with the acquisition of the slugging Taylor Ward. 

The manner in which they acquired Ward left many with new questions. 

Baltimore sent Grayson Rodriguez, the former top pitching prospect in the game, to Los Angeles in a one-for-one swap for Ward. Rodriguez, the 11th overall pick in the 2018 draft, hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2024 after missing all of last season with a laundry list of injuries. 

Something about opening some doors and closing others. 

Let’s start on the Ward side of things, where the O’s have shored up their outfield group for 2026. The 31-year-old, with just one year of team control remaining, has quietly put together a rock-solid stretch of seasons in Los Angeles, averaging over 136 games played with a .783 OPS, .251 batting average, 24.5 home runs, 24.3 doubles and 72.5 runs driven in per year since 2022. 

A .652 OPS isn’t the most impressive on the back of a baseball card. 

In 2025, major leaguers averaged a .719 OPS, aided by a slugging percentage over .400. Power numbers go a long way in putting runs on the board, but are only half of the equation for the most commonly used metric in hitting evaluation.

A .341 on-base percentage, on the other hand, is on par with some of the best in the game. 

In 2025, just 53 qualified players reached that mark. High-quality hitters like Brent Rooker, Manny Machado and Cody Bellinger fell short. 

That’s all to say that when you’re evaluating Enrique Bradfield Jr.’s Arizona Fall League, or just his game in general, you can’t just look at his .652 OPS. Instead, look towards where Bradfield excels: a .341 OBP paired with 17 stolen bases in just 20 games, plus a .974 fielding percentage with 37 putouts.

When the clock strikes 5 p.m., free agency will officially be underway in Major League Baseball. 

The 2026 class doesn’t feature a headliner like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto, but there is plenty of talent to be had. Spotrac estimates a dozen players to earn at least $20 million annually, a list that includes six starting pitchers. 

Throughout the offseason, we’ll take a deep dive into some potential fits in Baltimore. 

Player: Framber Valdez, LHP, 31 years old  

2025 Stats: 13-11, 192.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

The Dodgers aren’t the easiest team to replicate. 

Now back-to-back World Series champions, Los Angeles is reaping the benefits of the highest payroll in the game highlighted by, arguably, the best to ever do it. Multiple MVPs fill the top of the lineup while Cy Young winners take the mound. 

The Blue Jays, though, were right there. 

Hardly a small-market team themselves, Toronto was a play or two away from their first title since 1993. Their star first baseman put together one of the best postseasons of all time, an unheralded utility man was mere feet away from immortality, and a few grizzled veterans nearly pushed them over the top. 

The Orioles are hoping to join them at the summit.