The Orioles are in a different era. 

Consistently competing in the American League East, Baltimore can’t afford to give guaranteed, consistent playing time to prospects. Development, while still important, has to give way to winning baseball games at the big league level. 

Of course, this wasn’t always the case. 

Pitching prospects like Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer were never top 100 prospects according to MLB Pipeline, nor were they considered to be in the upper echelon of the O’s top youngsters. However, with a rebuilding phase at the big league level, they were still able to find pathways to relatively consistent playing time in the majors. 

Both players have been able to carve out roles in Baltimore: Akin out of the bullpen and Kremer as a mainstay in the starting rotation. They were given a chance to prove that they had big league ability and they made the most of their opportunities. 

A new season means a new MLB Pipeline prospect ranking. 

This week on “The Bird’s Nest,” Annie Klaff and I broke down some of the highlights from an updated top 30. You can listen to the full episode here: https://masn.me/6r1g411x

The Top Dogs 

Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo are two of the top prospects in all of baseball. Two of the best 15 in the game per Pipeline’s top 100, to be exact, and No. 1 and No. 2 in the O’s top 30. Basallo, now the top prospect in Baltimore’s system, has turned heads down in Sarasota with his eye popping exit velocities and defensive improvements. However, the catcher still needs seasoning in Triple-A Norfolk after posting a .638 OPS in 21 games with the Tides. That’s to be expected during your age 19 season. As for Mayo, there’s not much left to prove offensively down in the minors. Continuing to progress defensively at both third base and first base is the next step in his development. 

The Speedsters in Center 

The Orioles’ 2024 trade deadline was active. 

For the rotation, Baltimore acquired Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. To shore up the bullpen, a pair of flamethrowers from Philadelphia in Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto. And to supplement a talented outfield, the O’s added Eloy Jiménez, Austin Slater and Cristian Pache. 

But how about a move that didn’t impact the big league roster? 

In late July, it was the move everyone was waiting for. 

The Orioles sent utilityman Billy Cook to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Pat Reilly. 

Spring is the season of dart throws.

The Orioles hit a bullseye last offseason when they signed Albert Suárez to a minor league deal.

Suárez hadn’t toed rubber in the majors since 2017, but became a key piece of the 2024 Orioles. The righty boasted a 3.09 ERA in eight games as a reliever and a 3.76 ERA as a starter.

“Big Al” may not have been a signing that turned many heads in 2023, but it was one that became consequential for Baltimore.

Naturally, many eyes are darting around camp in an attempt to find the next Suárez. A pitcher who, after an unsuccessful stint in the majors, bounced around to leagues all over the world to find his groove.

Ah, the first week of spring training games. 

The perfect time to toss out wild takes about the upcoming season based on an incredibly small sample size of games that hold minimal weight. 

What takeaways are overreactions? Which far-too-early conclusions could actually come to fruition? 

On this week’s edition of “The Bird’s Nest” (which you can watch here), Annie Klaff and I took a deep dive into some early storylines. On the way up, we’ll see which ones hold any water. 

Heston Kjerstad will have a 20-plus home run season

Location, location, location. 

Important in real estate, shooting a "The Lord of the Rings" movie and throwing a slider.   

I’m pretty sure that’s what people say.

Glancing at Andrew Kittredge’s 2024 Statcast page, you’ll find that the reliever only had one advanced metric that ranked in the 75th percentile or better: chase rate. 

In fact, Kittredge’s chase rate ranked in the 100th percentile in baseball last season, with batters swinging at 38.9 percent of pitches that the right-hander threw out of the zone. That ranked as the best in baseball among pitchers with at least 200 plate appearances against. 

SARASOTA, Fla. – Baseball is a game of punches and counterpunches. 

Last season, Colton Cowser came out of the gates swinging. The former fifth-overall pick mashed his way through April and March to the tune of a .303/.372/.632/1.004 slash line. 

The elite defense didn’t hurt either. 

Cowser ranked in the 96th percentile in both outs above average and arm strength. His 11 OAA ranked eighth among all outfielders in the game and was best among left fielders. Couple great defense and an incredible start at the plate, and you’ve got an everyday starter. 

But then came a counterpunch. 

SARASOTA, Fla. – Spring training can be a whirlwind. 

New faces, stars of the game and top prospects are scattered across the fields at the Orioles' spring training complex at Ed Smith Stadium. 

A team fighting to recapture an American League East crown has plenty of storylines. On “The Bird’s Nest,” Annie Klaff and I broke down some of the standouts from the early part of camp. For a more in-depth analysis, you can watch the full episode here.

Tomoyuki Sugano’s rockstar status

Sugano’s name may not have been on the radars of many around Baltimore, but it has rung like “Elvis” thus far at spring training. The three-time Central League MVP has drawn crowds of media at every step. And his first bullpen session in an Orioles uniform was sharp. Gary Sánchez joked that he could close his eyes and Sugano’s pitch would be in the perfect place in his glove. While it remains to be seen how the right-hander's stuff will fare against major league hitters, pinpoint accuracy and great movement on pitches like his splitter are never bad places to start. 

SARASOTA, Fla. – There aren’t many prospects in baseball with an 80 grade tool. 

The grading scale, ranging from 20 to 80, evaluates five different tools for position players: Hit (evaluating contact), power, run (evaluating overall speed offensively and defensively), arm and field. 

MLB Pipeline’s highest graded position player, Roman Anthony, doesn’t have a single grade above a 60. Nor does Walker Jenkins, Pipeline’s third overall prospect in their top 100. 

Coby Mayo’s prodigious power has a 70 grade according to Pipeline’s scouts. As do the power tools of some recent top draft picks like Jac Caglianone and Charlie Condon. 

It’s very rare to find a perfect grade of an 80. Enrique Bradfield Jr., according to some outlets, has two: run and field. 

SARASOTA, Fla. – Jordan Westburg is intense. Fans like intense. 

Would his friends and family describe him that way?

“Probably,” Westburg laughed. “I can be intense, you know? I’m not gonna dodge those allegations. But I do think there’s a lighter side, there’s a less serious side to me off the field especially. But here, I’m kind of very business-like, very matter of fact.” 

Westburg was all business in 2024. Flying under the radar entering the year, the third baseman put together an All-Star campaign. Westy posted a .792 OPS in his 107 games, but rather than boasting about the positives, he would point to the fact that his total wasn’t closer to 160. 

“I learned a lot last year from getting to play more,” Westburg said. “I was very bummed that I didn’t get a full season. I’m looking forward to trying to stay healthy this year and get a full season and see what we can piece together” 

Heston Kjerstad’s reputation is that of a powerful slugger from the left side of the plate.

So would you believe me if I told you that he and Jackson Holliday had the exact same career minor league batting average? Or that Kjerstad’s .387 on-base percentage was just three points below Adley Rutschman’s down on the farm? The Arkansas product has proved himself to be a well-rounded force at the plate, and an OPS close to .750 in limited action in the big leagues is a sign of better things to come. Manager Brandon Hyde and general manager Mike Elias seem to think so, too. 

“He’s put up huge Triple-A numbers, and there’s opportunity now,” Hyde told reporters down in Sarasota.

“I think he’s kind of earned the right to get a lot of at-bats in the corner outfield and in the DH spot, specifically against right-handed pitching,” added Elias. 

As Elias said, Kjerstad has earned at-bats in the big leagues. But there are only so many swings and roster spots to go around. 

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported to spring training! And in just a short while, the full Orioles squad will report to Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota. 

Annie Klaff and I, the hosts of the MASN Orioles podcast “The Bird’s Nest,” will be joining them to put a camera in their faces, a practice that players and coaches have surely been lamentably deprived of all offseason. We’ll be providing lots of content on our MASN Orioles social pages, and I hope you’ll follow along. 

On this week’s episode of “The Bird’s Nest,” Annie and I discussed the top storylines that we’ll be keeping an eye on. For a more in-depth analysis of these topics, you can check out the full podcast here.

How will the new free agent signings fit?

Of course, the free agents that the Orioles acquired this offseason will have huge impacts on the field. At spring training, we will get glimpses of what that may be, but we’ll need to wait for 1 of 162 to start to get a better idea. Instead, this first stretch of play offers us an opportunity to have a glimpse inside the clubhouse. Will veterans like Charlie Morton and Tyler O’Neill be immediate vocal leaders? Or will they lead by their example rather than words? How will they mesh with the well-established young core that has had spots reserved in the locker room for many seasons? These are all questions that we will begin to get answers to. 

Baltimore’s plans for the 2024 season drastically changed in August of 2023. 

After 56 games as the best reliever in baseball, Félix Bautista walked off the mound after missing with 102 up and away. The then 28-year-old had just one strike to go to finish out his appearance against the Rockies. Instead, The Mountain’s season was over. As was his 2024. 

Bautista’s 6 '8 void was never going to be filled by just one pitcher. 

Baltimore added a 2023 All-Star in Craig Kimbrel to be their primary closer. Kimbrel, after posting a 2.80 ERA in the first half, struggled mightily once the calendar hit mid-July. And at the deadline, the O’s acquired Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto from the Phillies. The duo combined to appear in 48 games with Domínguez saving 10. Despite performing well, it would have been a stretch to hope that they could replicate Bautista’s 1.48 ERA from the season prior. 

Ultimately, the only pitcher that can replicate the dominance of Bautista is the man himself, and the O’s weren’t able to replicate his dominance in 2024. Coming off Tommy John surgery, it may take a little while longer to truly see Bautista back to pitching like only The Mountain can. 

Kids say the darndest things, don’t they?

A question-and-answer session with Orioles fans at the Guinness Open Gate Brewery left the door open for all sorts of wild sound bites. For the kids asking Jackson Holliday questions, queries ranged from why the phenom wanted to play baseball to his pets at home. His dog is named Coconut, for the record.  

“Jackson, are you a grown man?” asked a fan no older than 6, as laughter filled the room. Holliday met the question with a chuckle.  

After being selected first overall in the MLB Draft out of high school in 2022, the phenom rose to the major leagues just two years later. So by major league standards, the former top prospect is far from “grown.”  

Entering the 2024 season, Holliday was the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. The former first-overall pick had a meteoric rise through the minor leagues in 2023, soaring through four different levels of the farm in 125 total games. Expectations for 2024 couldn’t have been higher. It was almost impossible for the numbers to match the hype.  

The Orioles outfield is crowded. 

Three everyday starters occupy patches of grass in left, center, and right field. As the 4th outfielder, how can one of the best prospects in the game prove himself without consistent at-bats? 

If this conversation about Heston Kjerstad sounds familiar, it’s because I wasn’t talking about Heston Kjerstad. It’s the conversation that many of us were having at this time last year surrounding Colton Cowser.  

Austin Hays was fresh off an All-Star campaign in 2023. Cedric Mullins hadn’t relinquished his grasp on his center field role since his breakout season in 2021. Anthony Santander had played over 300 games in 2022 and 2023, combining for 61 home runs and a .785 OPS. The starting outfield was set in proverbial stone.  

If Colton Cowser was going to prove himself at the big league level, he was going to have to earn his playing time.  

Unlike your neighbor’s golden retriever, Zach Eflin despises walks. 

“I hate giving people a free pass … It really comes down to… I don’t like giving in to guys and just letting them take first base,” Eflin said with a smile in his first interaction with Baltimore reporters after being traded to the O’s back in July.

The right-hander went on to toss over 55 innings for the Orioles in the second half of last season. In that stretch, Eflin only walked 11 batters. The veteran’s aptitude for limiting free passes helped him allow just 16 total earned runs in his nine starts in Orioles orange. 

Nearly 100 pitchers in baseball had a fastball of at least 95 mph last season, but Eflin doesn’t pitch that way. The righty boasts a six-pitch arsenal, but none exceed an average of 93 mph. He won’t rack up the strikeout numbers, nor tout a huge whiff rate. 

Eflin excels at commanding the strike zone. His 3.5% walk rate put him in the 98th percentile in the majors in 2024. And when he did move out of the zone, he did so intentionally, to the tune of a 32.6% chase rate according to Statcast, good for the 88th percentile in baseball. 

SEATTLE – By now, I’m sure you’ve seen the fact that the Orioles have secured their first winning month since Aug. 2017. That’s a really long time. 

What’s been behind that winning month? 

The O’s have gone 14-10 in June, outscoring their opponents 121-96, good for a +25 run differential. The offense has averaged 5.03 runs per game over that stretch, which is third-best in the American League.

Last night’s nine runs showcased just how potent this offense can be. 

“Excited with how we swung the bat last night,” said manager Brandon Hyde. “We did a great job of grinding out a starter, spoiling a bunch of pitches. Even our outs were loud at times.”

The Orioles have made the following roster moves:

• Recalled LHP Drew Rom from Triple-A Norfolk. He will wear No. 67 and his first appearance will be his Major League debut.
• Recalled INF/OF Ryan O’Hearn from Triple-A Norfolk.
• Recalled INF Terrin Vavra from Triple-A Norfolk.
• Placed INF Ramón Urías on the 10-day Injured List with a left hamstring strain.
• Optioned LHP Keegan Akin to Triple-A Norfolk after yesterday’s game.
• Designated C Luis Torrens for assignment. 

The Orioles’ 40-man roster currently has 39 players.

Watch the full podcast here!

There isn’t much of a question about who will win the American League Rookie of the Year. Julio Rodríguez, Adley Rutschman and Steven Kwan were named the three finalists, with Rodríguez firmly cemented as the favorite. 

Rodríguez mashed 28 home runs, 25 doubles and stole 25 bases while accumulating a 6.0 WAR, according to baseball-reference.com. The center fielder also ranked in the 90th percentile or better in a number of important statistical categories, including average exit velocity, barrel percentage and sprint speed, according to baseballsavant.mlb.com.

Despite Rodríguez’s dominance, Rutschman still has a case for the award, albeit not an incredibly strong one. Playing in 19 fewer games than Rodríguez, the catcher’s counting stats fall short. Thirteen home runs and a 5.2 bWAR are impressive numbers, but don’t encapsulate the value that the rookie brought. 

If you were making the case for Adley Rutschman to win the Rookie of the Year award, you wouldn’t just point to the numbers. You would point to the fact that after Rutschman’s debut on May 21, the Orioles went 67-55. Just one year removed from losing 110 games, the O’s found themselves in a playoff race, thanks in large part to their rookie catcher. 

Photo of Jameson Taillon

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The Baltimore Orioles are in uncharted territory. 

When Mike Elias was hired in November 2018, the Orioles were in full rebuild mode. The O’s had already parted ways with Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Zack Britton, Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day.

Offseasons under Elias have been approached in similar ways: Sign low-cost veterans that can help the team in the short-term and hope they can be flipped for prospects at the deadline. That approach, among other things, led to the organization’s No. 1 farm system ranking, and allowed the Orioles to find diamonds in the rough through waiver claims, trades and small-money signings. 

Elias’ patient approach culminated in a 2022 season in which the Orioles vastly out-performed expectations, racking up 83 wins and finishing just three games out of the final American League Wild Card spot.