What does Shane Baz bring to the O's rotation?

The O’s rotation, in need of help, just added a flamethrower. 

Today, Baltimore acquired right-hander Shane Baz in exchange for prospects Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret and Austin Overn, as well as a Competitive Balance Round A selection. According to MLB Pipeline, Forret slots in as the Rays’ No. 5 prospect with de Brun right behind him. Bodine checks in at No. 11 and Overn at No. 20. 

That’s a steep price, but one that the O’s were willing to pay for a young, controllable arm that could help the club in both the short- and long-term. 

You may remember Baz, the 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft, as one of the key pieces that Tampa Bay acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the now-infamous Chris Archer trade. The righty has long been considered to be one of the most intriguing young arms in the game, being ranked as high as the 12th-best prospect in baseball entering the 2022 season. 

That No. 12 ranking, ironically, was the second-highest for a pitching prospect that season behind only Grayson Rodriguez. 

Similar to Rodriguez, Baz has dealt with injuries that have muddied the path to a promising future. The Houston, Texas native underwent multiple elbow surgeries in 2022, eventually leading to Tommy John surgery. He missed the entirety of the next year and appeared in 14 games in 2024 before putting together a full season with 31 starts last year. 

The results of those 31 outings don’t jump off the page, though. 

On the surface, a 4.87 ERA with 26 home runs allowed in just over 166 innings pitched doesn’t impress. But his underlying metrics were far better. According to Statcast, Baz’s expected ERA was down at 3.85. He was also one of just eight qualified pitchers, according to Matt Weyrich, who ranked among the top 20 in both strikeout rate and groundball rate, joining names like Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 

At his best, Baz is an electric “stuff guy” capable of striking out hitters at will with a four-seam fastball that averages 97.0 mph and a knuckle-curveball with one of the best movement profiles in the game. 

It’s also important to note the conditions under which Baz, and his Rays teammates, played last season. 

Tampa Bay’s home games were played at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a hitter-friendly ballpark to say the least. Last season, the venue ranked in the top 12 for average exit velocity, batting average, hits and home runs. It should be no surprise, then, to learn that Baz’s ERA was a whopping 5.90 at home compared to just 3.86 on the road. According to Statcast, if the righty played every game at Steinbrenner, he would have surrendered 30 home runs, second to only Sutter Health Park, the minor league stadium in which the A’s played. That number would’ve been down at 19 at Camden Yards. 

With all of that in mind, there is plenty of reason to believe that Baz’s ERA could get back closer to that 3.06 mark we saw in 2024. 

The biggest question mark surrounding Baz has always been his health, and his 31 starts in 2025 went a long way in proving that he could be a worthy long-term investment. In their new rotation piece, the Orioles have a former top prospect on an upward trajectory under team control until 2029. 

As far as the prospect haul that the O’s surrendered, Baltimore is sending a clear message about their approach to winning now. de Brun and Bodine, both first-round picks, have yet to play a game above Low-A, and likely won’t debut until 2028 at the earliest. Overn and Forret, while on the rise, have only limited sample sizes in Double-A, and wouldn’t be ready to contribute to the big league level until 2027. 

With additions like Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Ryan Helsley, and now Baz, the Orioles are pushing their chips in to win now. Adding a key rotation arm will help them do just that.