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Shane Baz is the third eye-popping move made by the Orioles this month and there’s more than a week remaining before the calendar runs out in 2025.
Do you see what I see?
Closer Ryan Helsley signed his two-year, $28 million contract on the 1st, and first baseman Pete Alonso signed his five-year, $155 million deal on the 11th. President of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias hopped back into the trade market by acquiring Baz from the Rays for four prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A pick – the 33rd overall in the draft.
Baz never seemed to be tied to the Orioles or anyone else. The Rays apparently weren’t in a major rush to move him. It just happened organically, as these things are wont to do.
“That’s not necessarily the direction we were looking to go because of how highly we think of Shane,” Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander told the media. “But we had teams coming after him aggressively, and there is a point where, if a certain threshold is reached, you can’t help but have to consider it.”
Let’s consider some thoughts gathered from another transaction that can move the needle.
* The term “liftoff” was misunderstood in 2022, but “the best days are ahead of us” is ringing true.
Elias caught some heat following the ’22 trade deadline after parting with Trey Mancini and Jorge López while the Orioles were hovering around contention, meeting the players and media in Arlington and saying “it’s liftoff from here for this team.”
The quote took on a life of its own, challenging Syd Thrift’s classic “confederate money” lament at the Winter Meetings, Andy MacPhail’s “front office malpractice” statement relating to service time, and Dan Duquette’s claim that the Orioles were “getting the band back together,” also uttered at the Winter Meetings, while discussing some old-school front office hires.
Elias wasn’t suggesting that the Orioles would blow up the payroll and spend exorbitant amounts while chasing a championship that eluded them since 1983. Or that they would be super aggressive in the free agent market. It was the beginning of a sustained upward trajectory that would leave the rebuild in the dust.
Got it now?
Anyway, control owner David Rubenstein uttered the “best days” quote at Pete Alonso’s press conference. Later, he added, “I think it’s going to be a great season for the Orioles and the best days are surely ahead of us.”
He said it again!
And stop calling us Shirley.
* How much more proof is needed that the Orioles are all-in for 2026?
The evidence takes on different forms.
Outfielder Taylor Ward is a pending free agent, making him a likely one-year rental, and he cost starter Grayson Rodriguez, the 11th-overall pick in the 2018 draft with the high ceiling and controllability until after the 2029 season.
The Orioles needed a right-handed power bat – this was pre-Alonso – and couldn’t trust Rodriguez to stay healthy, even if they didn’t use those exact words. The Angels must proceed with caution. The Orioles were done touching the hot stove, but they were just starting to make impactful moves during the Hot Stove season.
The Alonso deal brought the largest annual average value for any first baseman in history and marked the second-most lucrative contract handed out by the Orioles. Alonso is under control for five years, but the value of his power is measured in more than just home runs. That muscle can keep the window from slamming shut.
Anything less than a deep playoff run will be viewed as a failure. This is the pressure that Elias and company are operating under after failing to win a playoff game in 2023 and ’24 and landing in last place in ’25.
The Orioles can hold onto Baz for three seasons before he’s eligible for free agency. The cost was significant because of it.
Yes, prospects are a gamble. Young players are unproven commodities. They can burn you after being traded – think about the Glenn Davis deal in 1991 and try not to dry heave - or they can flame out.
Maybe the Davis comparison isn’t ideal, since Steve Finley, Pete Harnisch and Curt Schilling already made their major league debuts. Jake Arrieta did the same before going to the Cubs for, gulp, Scott Feldman. But the point stands.
Outfielders Slater de Brun and Austin Overn, catcher Caden Bodine and right-hander Michael Forret are projections. The Rays could be doing a victory dance in a few years. The Orioles want to ride in convertibles on the parade route.
* Elias has talked about players obtained at the trade deadline and in the draft perhaps helping the organization by leaving it. And here we go.
The one silver lining to losing was restocking the farm system. The draft had the same impact. Rake in the young talent and strengthen your voice in trade talks.
MacPhail used to reference it, too, but it’s easier said than done.
Elias surrendered two of the first four draft picks from 2025. Bodine is an exceptional catcher with advanced bat skills. To me, he’s going to hurt the most. Of course, that could be way off. Lots of people thought Harnisch would be the biggest loss in the Davis trade – sorry to keep bringing it up – but Frank Robinson once corrected a reporter who made that assumption. Schilling would be the one to come back and bite the Orioles, he said.
Or words to that effect.
Samuel Basallo is the top prospect in the system and he just signed an eight-year, $67 million extension. Bodine could have been blocked – ironic for a catcher, am I right?. And the first draft pick, Ike Irish, also is a catcher, though he made more starts at first base and just as many in right field in his first professional season.
Arkansas shortstop Wehiwa Aloy was a steal at No. 31 overall and he’s still with the Orioles, at least for now.
“I think it was always possible,” Elias said. “I think we talked about it last year when we sold at the trade deadline that even though some of those players are in the lower minors, you can trade them to help in the near term or they help populate your farm system and make you feel better about trading other players. I think that was the case here.
“Slater de Brun, who we're very high on, we only had him because of the pick that we got from Tampa in the Bryan Baker trade, and the Caden Bodine pick was something that we got from a qualifying offer free agent (Corbin Burnes) leaving. There are ways that getting these players, these draft picks, players from prior trades can benefit your team in the near team, and I think this was an example of that.”
* The Orioles will keep trusting their pitching program.
They obviously are convinced that they can get more out of Baz. They hold up Trevor Rogers as an example.
Baz has an enticing five-pitch mix highlighted by a fastball that can touch triple digits and a curveball that’s regarded as plus. He’s recovered from Tommy John surgery but coming off a season where he posted a 4.87 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 166 1/3 innings.
The innings total over 31 starts was encouraging. He’s also got a high ceiling, as long as we’re making comparisons to Rodriguez. The Orioles must know that they can bring out the absolute best in Baz or they wouldn’t have swung the deal.
“We've got an excellent pitching coach in Drew French and the staff that he has around them, too,” Elias said. “Mitch Plassmeyer, Ryan Klimek, Forrest Herrmann, and Hank Conger is going to be joining the effort now. We have a lot of people that we really trust to coach up the pitchers. I think Trevor was a big success story for those guys and the strength and conditioning team and all that.
“We involved Drew and the pitching coaches in the scouting process, especially before a major trade like this, and they're really eager to work with Shane. He checks a lot of scouting boxes that we look for from a human scouting standpoint, but also on the analytical side. I think he's going to work really well with our program and our pitching coaches.”
* The risks of trading within the division won’t stop the Orioles and Rays from talking.
We don’t need to go back to infielder/outfielder Steve Pearce coming to the Orioles in 2016 for minor league catcher Jonah Heim or shortstop Tim Beckham arriving a year later in exchange for minor league pitcher Tobias Myers. We really don’t need to venture way, way back to 1999, when the Devil Rays traded pitcher Jason Johnson to the Orioles for outfielder Danny Clyburn.
Elias has done four deals with Tampa Bay in the last 3 ½ years, including the three-team trade at the 2022 deadline that sent Mancini to Houston and minor league pitchers Chayce McDermott and Seth Johnson to the Orioles. Starter Zach Eflin was acquired at the 2024 deadline for minor leaguers Jackson Baumeister, Matthew Etzel and Mac Horvath. Reliever Bryan Baker was traded in July for a Competitive Balance pick that turned into de Brun, who’s now in the Rays organization and their No. 6 prospect according to MLB Pipeline.
"I have a tremendous amount of respect for Erik Neander and the staff there and the way they do things and the organization that they've built," Elias said. "They always have a ton of talent, so that makes you end up talking to them quite a bit. And I think that we respectively understand the difficulty of our division and the need to kind of make moves and be creative to keep your team in mix. We find ourselves talking to them a lot. I think we see players kind of similarly, so it helps us line up on things. And I think we speak similar languages, and we have a good working relationship with those guys."
