Major League Baseball rang in the New Year by knocking down one of the big starting pitcher dominos in free agency. Maybe you heard the noise.

Not quite as jarring as a snow squall emergency alert on your phone.

I had to change the sheets.

The Astros reached agreement with Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai on a three-year, $54 million deal that includes multiple opt-out clauses. MLBTradeRumors.com ranked him seventh on its top 50 list and projected a contract for $150 million over six years.

Still on the market are Framber Valdez, who seems even less likely to stay in Houston, and Ranger Suárez. The Orioles have expressed their interest in both starters and remain in the running, as far as we know. CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson predicted earlier this week that the Orioles would sign Valdez, whose 83 quality starts the past four seasons are second-most in the majors behind Logan Webb’s 85.

Zach Eflin probably won’t rise to the top of the Orioles’ rotation, where he resided on 2025 Opening Day. He might not settle at the bottom of it, either. However, he ranks highly on the list of potential bounce back candidates.

That’s because of his back.

Eflin went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 31 starts with the Rays in 2023 and finished sixth in American League Cy Young voting. He posted a combined 3.59 ERA in 28 starts with Tampa Bay and the Orioles in 2024, allowing only 16 runs in 55 1/3 innings after the deadline trade.

Upon further review, it’s simply amazing that Eflin was this productive in his career while dealing with intense pain that eventually wrecked his mechanics, making him jump off his back foot, avoid using his lower half to drive through the baseball and drop his arm angle. Tricks to make it through each start that morphed into bad habits.

It finally caught up to him. All of it. The forced adjustments and pain that he described this week as someone holding a lighter to the bottom of his back.

Done after depth?

This is just one of the lingering questions after the Orioles brought back Zach Eflin on a one-year, $10 million contract Sunday with a mutual option for 2027.

President of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias has negotiated with some of the top starters on the free agent market, including Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez. He alluded to the possibility, or maybe it was likelihood, of another big acquisition following first baseman Pete Alonso, who received $155 million over five seasons in the second-largest deal in franchise history.

Eflin isn’t that guy. He won’t reprise his role as 2025 Opening Day starter. He might not be ready on that date after undergoing a lumbar microdiscectomy on Aug. 18 to cure the persistent lower-back pain that accounted for the last two of his three trips to the injured list last season.

Elias wanted to strengthen the back end of the rotation and give manager Craig Albernaz more options following a season when the Orioles used a franchise-record 70 players and 41 different pitchers, the organization’s second-highest total. Left unspoken for now is whether Elias shifts his full attention to the bullpen and potential role players or continues his pursuit of a potential No. 1 or 2 starter.

Veteran starter Zach Eflin is out of options but he had choices.

Other teams besides the Orioles expressed interest in Eflin during his tour of free agency. He was 4 ½ months removed from lower-back surgery and so confident in his recovery that he intended to be available for the first series. He felt good physically and about the negotiations that would lead him to another job.

“I didn’t know where I was going to be,” he said.

Eflin picked the team that traded for him at the 2024 deadline, put him on the injured list three times last season and voiced a desire to re-sign him.

The first preference gave him a second chance.

Signing Zach Eflin to a one-year deal, with a mutual option for 2027, wasn’t necessarily the huge starting rotation splash that many hoped Baltimore would make. Eflin’s status to begin the 2026 season, even, is uncertain. 

However, if the veteran right-hander gets back to his old self at some point in 2026, the Orioles have significantly raised both their floor and ceiling in the rotation for the upcoming campaign.

Let’s not forget what that “old self” looked like, despite a disappointing 2025. 

Eflin was acquired by the Orioles at the 2024 trade deadline in exchange for a prospect haul, and he didn’t disappoint in his debut stint in orange and black. The righty, fresh off of a sixth-place Cy Young finish in the previous season, posted a 2.60 ERA in nine starts for Baltimore to end the year.

To start 2025, he picked up right where he left off. 

Outfielder Taylor Ward had no idea that the Orioles signed first baseman Pete Alonso until some friends alerted him through text messaging. 

Ward wanted to believe it, but he needed more proof. The internet isn't batting 1.000.

“You just never know when you receive that information if it’s true or not, but I’m glad it is,” Ward said during a recent appearance on the “Orioles Hot Stove Show” on WBAL Radio.

“It’s just gonna be great having him, and it’s really cool to see him want to be here, too. I think that’s another big part of it. It’s just exciting.”

Ward came to the Orioles in a Nov. 19 trade that sent pitcher Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels. He was the right-handed power bat that the front office desired since the beginning of the offseason.

The Orioles are bringing back one of their free agents, striking a deal with starter Zach Eflin a few days before 2025 runs out.

Eflin has agreed to a one-year major league contract that includes a mutual option for 2027, according to a source. Eflin will be paid $10 million this season.

President of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias sought to improve the rotation’s depth and reached out to Eflin, who is recovering from August back surgery.

Eflin underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy procedure to alleviate persistent lower-back pain and was expected to be sidelined four to eight months. He made only 14 starts last season and had three stints on the injured list, the first related to a right lat strain. The veteran right-hander finished with a 5.93 ERA and 1.416 WHIP, with his final appearance on July 28.

“I think, for me personally, it’s been disappointing, depressing,” Eflin, the Opening Day starter, said prior to his surgery. “I’ve just tried to throw a baseball and I wasn’t necessarily comfortable all the time, and that’s not a really good place to be. It’s something I look back and I don’t like thinking back on it, because I didn’t necessarily feel good at times when I threw, but I also didn’t pitch well at the same time.

Shane Baz is the third eye-popping move made by the Orioles this month and there’s more than a week remaining before the calendar runs out in 2025.

Do you see what I see?

Closer Ryan Helsley signed his two-year, $28 million contract on the 1^st, and first baseman Pete Alonso signed his five-year, $155 million deal on the 11^th. President of baseball operations/general manager Mike Elias hopped back into the trade market by acquiring Baz from the Rays for four prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A pick – the 33^rd overall in the draft.

Baz never seemed to be tied to the Orioles or anyone else. The Rays apparently weren’t in a major rush to move him. It just happened organically, as these things are wont to do.

“That’s not necessarily the direction we were looking to go because of how highly we think of Shane,” Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander told the media. “But we had teams coming after him aggressively, and there is a point where, if a certain threshold is reached, you can’t help but have to consider it.”

If the Orioles hold onto their offseason plan as if it’s covered in stickum, they’re going to emphasis starting pitching, late-inning relief and an impact bat while constructing their roster for Opening Day.

I don’t believe there’s an actual order to it. The calls and meetings are taking place and any deal that can be completed, whether in free agency or a trade, will rank ahead of the others. Mike Elias isn’t putting any of these needs on a back burner.

The hiring of a general manager sits there.

I’ve got more questions swirling in my brain, and among them is which of these additions is most important to the club’s future success? That’s different than which comes first.

I’m not too chicken to egg you on.

The Orioles began yesterday with a full 40-man roster and finished it with a full 40-man roster.

Many of the names changed.

Pitchers Félix Bautista, Grayson Rodriguez and Brandon Young were reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Pitcher Anthony Nunez had his contract selected from Triple-A Norfolk to protect him in the Rule 5 draft, ahead of the deadline to do so. Cuban outfielder Pedro León was claimed on waivers from the Astros. Outfielder Leody Taveras signed a $2 million contract.

Outfielder Dylan Carlson elected free agency. The Orioles declined infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo’s $5.5 million option. Pitchers Josh Walker and Carson Ragsdale were designated for assignment. Pitcher Shawn Dubin was outrighted to Norfolk and became a free agent. The Mets claimed left-hander José Castillo on waivers.

Six added and six subtracted.

The World Series is over, which begins the official countdown to the start of free agency. The exact time is 5 p.m. on Thursday.

Teams also must decide whether to make qualifying offers to their free agents, with the cost rising to $22.025 million. The Orioles won’t float it past Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano or Gary Sánchez.

Eflin seemed like a candidate earlier in the year, before a third trip to the injured list led to lower-back surgery in August.

Teams receive a compensatory draft pick if a player declines the offer and signs with another organization. The risk, of course, is having the player accept it.

The Orioles in theory could allow Eflin to test free agency and try to negotiate a short-term deal, the ol’ pillow contract that gives him an opportunity to reestablish his value. The club, in turn, would have a veteran, track record starter for the back end of their rotation. He wouldn’t be in line to repeat as Opening Day starter.

The flurry of deadline trades massively altered the Orioles’ roster, made it much harder to stay competitive but also provided a nice bump to a farm system that slipped in the rankings due to the many promotions and the graduations from eligibility.

They also took away a chunk of the team’s pending free agents, including Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Charlie Morton, Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto. Some players under team control or with options also were dealt, including Bryan Baker, Andrew Kittredge, Ramón Laureano and Ramón Urías.

Three players on the current roster will become free agents five days after the World Series and the Orioles can negotiate to bring them back, though the chances of the entire trio returning are pretty much nil.

Let’s start with the reason why.

Catcher Gary Sánchez

The Orioles complete their latest homestand this afternoon against the Mariners and fly to Houston for a three-game series, followed by two in Boston.

The roster will change again before they make it back home. Count on it.

My mailbag also changes with each massive dump. And this is probably a good place to stop, but let’s keep going.

You ask, I try to answer, and we have the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original that currently airs on Netflix. Or is it Amazon Prime? Anyway, it’s out there, just like so many of you.

Questions aren’t edited for clarity, style, length, brevity or bravado. And I wouldn’t tell you anyway, because, again, who cares?

Zach Eflin will undergo lower back surgery on Monday, which should lead to a four-to-eight month recovery period.

"I think it really all depends on how the post-op stuff goes, how everything responds and how my body's moving post-surgery," he said today. "I don't expect not to be ready for spring training. From what I've heard from the surgeon, after 12 weeks I'm able to have a normal offseason, so I'm pretty optimistic it's not gonna be a long thing."

Eflin said he’s experienced back pain randomly for the past five or six years and is looking forward to the lumbar microdiscectomy, which relieves pressure on a spinal nerve caused by a herniated disc.

“It’s just gotten progressively worse,” he said. “A couple months ago an MRI was a little worse than it was previously and just seems like the disc is in a place where it’s kind of pushing against my nerve and it’s just not going away. Tried an epidural, didn’t really work, so I think the next step is just to get it taken care of, and hopefully be ready for spring training.”

Eflin said “all signs” point to the surgery bringing a permanent resolution.

PHILADELPHIA – As the Orioles work to get their rotation healthier with rehab assignments for Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, they’ve got an indefinite wait on veteran right-hander Zach Eflin.

Eflin returned to the 15-day injured list Thursday with lower back discomfort. He received an epidural shot and the Orioles don’t know how much more time he’s going to miss.

“There is no plan in place for him right now,” said interim manager Tony Masolino. “Still letting the shot do its work, see how he comes out of that. And then, as he feels better or when he does, then we’ll be able to map out what the next month or two months will look like for him.”

Eflin was expected to be a trade chip at the deadline, but the injury likely quieted the market for him.

This is Eflin's third trip to the IL and his second with back pain. He was sidelined in April with a mild lat strain.

Zach Eflin is headed to the injured list again before possibly going to another organization in a trade.

The Orioles put Eflin on the 15-day IL today with lower back discomfort, retroactive to yesterday. They recalled Brandon Young from Double-A Chesapeake.

Young is eligible to return because he’s replacing an injured player.

Eflin went on the IL in April with a mild lat strain and again in June with the lower back strain. He’s made 14 starts and posted a 5.93 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in 71 1/3 innings.

Eflin faced the Blue Jays on Monday and allowed four runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings. He held the Guardians to two runs and two hits in five innings after his reinstatement.

Interim manager Tony Mansolino didn’t know yesterday morning whether certain players would make it through the series finale against the Blue Jays. Whether he’d hear from the front office, alerting him to a trade, or at least the possibility of one.

Former manager Brandon Hyde knew the drill during the rebuild period. Mansolino is getting his first experience with it.

“There’s always things kind of cooking with that,” he said. “For a couple days, we’ve gotten a phone call during the game, essentially like, ‘Hey, heads up in these scenarios.’ So I think that’s pretty normal this time of the year if you’re a team that’s kind of selling.”

Or full-in, without-question selling.

The Orioles aren’t straddling the fence. They traded relievers Bryan Baker, Gregory Soto and Seranthony Domínguez and infielder Ramón Urías and are receiving offers on numerous other players. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn and center fielder Cedric Mullins are high on the list, with the Reds among the teams tracking Mullins. The Cubs are a possible match for Zach Eflin based on their interest level, but the Orioles also could move Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano.

Adley Rutschman celebrated his return to the Orioles tonight. If Cedric Mullins passes him going the other way, he’s doing it with a bang.

Mullins and Coby Mayo hit back-to-back home runs in the second inning, Rutschman broke a tie with a two-run double in the third, and the Orioles kept unloading on Blue Jays pitching to win their third game in a row, 11-4, before an announced crowd of 20,176 at Camden Yards.

Zach Eflin lasted only 4 1/3 innings in what could be his last game with the Orioles, who improved to 48-58 with the trade deadline arriving at 6 p.m. Thursday. The Blue Jays have the best record in the majors at 63-44 but are 26-27 on the road.

Eflin wasn’t sharp and his luck wavered, but the Orioles supported him in every possible way. Runs were plentiful, and Mullins made a leaping catch at the center field fence to rob Nathan Lukes of a game-tying two-run homer in the fourth. Eflin stood frozen, the same look of disbelief that Trevor Rogers wore on Saturday after Mullins’ diving grab, and raised his cap.

Mullins landed with his back against the fence and with knees bent, as if sitting on an imaginary chair. He tossed the ball underhand to Ramón Laureano, who raced over from right field, and they jogged back to the dugout. One of them received a standing ovation.

The Orioles could peel more players off their roster this week, but they’ve added two from the injured list.

Catcher Adley Rutschman (oblique) and reliever Keegan Akin (shoulder) were reinstated this afternoon, as expected. The Orioles designated catcher Jacob Stallings for assignment and optioned right-hander Yaramil Hiraldo to Triple-A Norfolk.

The 40-man roster has 38 players.

The Blue Jays are in town for a four-game series, including Tuesday’s split doubleheader. Rutschman is expected to catch for the first time since June 19 in Tampa. He has a .993 OPS in 47 career games against Toronto, the highest by any catcher all-time in a minimum 175 plate appearances, according to STATS.

Tyler O’Neill has homered in three consecutive games. Yesterday’s homer had an exit velocity of 113.6 mph, the hardest of his career.

The trade deadline is 6 p.m. Thursday and I’m told that MASN is a seller only when it comes to me. Make them an offer.

A reporter-to-be-named later or cash considerations should get it done.

A straight-up for Chad Bradford is being discussed, according to an industry source with direct knowledge. He actually was at the ballpark over the weekend to sign autographs. At least, that's their story. I'm still suspicious. 

Players wonder how much the roster is going to change in the next few days. They try to block it out, but how is that possible? Relievers Bryan Baker and Gregory Soto already left and others are going to follow. They know it.

“Definitely a new experience for me, because the past two years, we’ve obviously won a lot more games,” said shortstop Gunnar Henderson. “Definitely a new experience. It’s a weird one, because obviously, don’t know who, when or if. It’s just kind of a crappy situation.