The state of the rotation entering Hot Stove season

If the Nationals are looking for ways to improve from 2025 to 2026, they can look at almost any position on the field and see plenty of room for growth. But if Paul Toboni and his new front office are allowed to point to only one aspect of the roster that could benefit the most from an upgrade, they surely would point to a rotation that regressed from the previous year.

After a moderately encouraging 2024 season that saw the emergence of several young arms and a respectable 4.40 ERA that ranked 23rd in the majors, Nats starters went backwards this season, finishing with a 5.18 ERA that ranked 29th in the sport, ahead of only the lowly Rockies.

What happened? The regression can be found in MacKenzie Gore’s rough second half following his first All-Star selection. It can be found in Trevor Williams’ inability to build off an encouraging 2024 before suffering another significant arm injury. And it really can be found in the way Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker – two bright spots from the previous year – devolved into two of the least effective starters in baseball.

Not that there weren’t positive developments mixed in there. Cade Cavalli finally made it all the way back from his injury woes and flashed top-of-the-rotation potential during his 10 late-season starts. Brad Lord did what Irvin and Parker did in the past and turned in a surprisingly effective rookie campaign (though he bounced back and forth between the rotation and bullpen). And Andrew Alvarez, another unexpected contributor, more than held his own in five September starts.

The new group that has since taken over the franchise sees things it likes in this group.

“I remember sitting in the dugout feeling helpless watching MacKenzie Gore pitch against us in Cincinnati last year,” said new pitching coach Simon Mathews, who was with the Reds this season. “And feeling that there was just a ton of talent on this staff. Diving into guys like Cade Cavalli, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker … it’s a really exciting group from a young talent perspective.”

The Nationals, in theory, could stick with what they’ve got and go into 2026 with this same group. Everybody returns, though Williams isn’t expected to complete his rehab from an internal brace procedure in his elbow until late-April or May. Josiah Gray, however, should be ready to go after fully completing his rehab from Tommy John surgery.

But sticking with this group as-is requires a lot of faith in the ability of each pitcher to improve. Significantly in several cases.

Gore and Cavalli headline the rotation as currently constructed. The former was headed for the best season by a Nationals starter since Max Scherzer still wore a curly W cap, entering his first career All-Star Game with a 3.02 ERA, 1.196 WHIP and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. But over his final 11 outings, the left-hander saw that ERA skyrocket to 6.75, that WHIP jump to 1.703 and that strikeout rate plummet to 8.6. Consistency is the name of the game for Gore, and it’s time for the 26-year-old to finally show he has that tool in his kit.

The most important thing Cavalli did was make 10 big league starts with no signs of health concerns along the way, given his long, arduous path back from Tommy John surgery in March 2023. That the big right-hander also showed electric stuff during several eye-opening outings was icing on the cake. But now he’s got to prove he can do it for a full season and finally live up to his reputation.

The new administration faces a fascinating question with Lord. Do they view him as a starter, which Mike DeBartolo and Miguel Cairo did during the season’s second half? Or do they believe he’s best suited to pitch out of the bullpen, which Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez did for most of the first half? The stats saw he was much better in 29 relief appearances (2.79 ERA, 1.164 WHIP) than 19 starts (4.99 ERA, 1.348 WHIP). But does this organization have enough quality pitching depth at this point to justify putting Lord back in the bullpen?

Gray could help make that decision if he returns to form after missing nearly two full seasons with an elbow injury. The 2023 All-Star and 2024 Opening Day starter ran out of time to make it back to D.C. in September, but he enjoyed three scoreless minor league rehab starts and emerged healthy. If the right-hander can complete his comeback and become a reliable, middle-of-the-rotation option, the Nationals will be much better off in the short and long term.

Whether Irvin and Parker are still part of the long-term plan remains to be seen. The new front office did recently tender Irvin a 2026 contract, suggesting a willingness to pay him the $3 million or so he could make through arbitration despite a massively disappointing season that included a 5.70 ERA, 1.428 WHIP and league-leading 38 home runs surrendered. Just one year earlier, he was establishing himself as a workhorse starter who consistently gave his team a chance to win. Can he rediscover that form under a new administration?

Parker also regressed badly from his encouraging rookie year, his ERA jumping from 4.29 to 5.68, his walk and home run rates rising while his strikeout rate fell. The left-hander seemed to be at a loss for an explanation as the season played out, and he was bumped to the bullpen during the final week. The Nationals may have enough other options ahead of Parker on the depth chart, but not so much depth they can afford to give up on him altogether.

There are a few other possibilities as well. Alvarez wasn’t a highly regarded prospect, but he was calm and in control during five September starts, posting a 2.31 ERA to earn another look next spring. DJ Herz could be an option sometime early in the season once the lefty who occasionally dazzled in 2024 is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. And the organization’s next wave of starter prospects (Jake Bennett, Riley Cornelio) could debut sometime during the season, with Jarlin Susana and Travis Sykora further away after suffering injuries this summer.