Free agency set to begin, qualifying offers aren't expected from Orioles

The World Series is over, which begins the official countdown to the start of free agency. The exact time is 5 p.m. on Thursday.

Teams also must decide whether to make qualifying offers to their free agents, with the cost rising to $22.025 million. The Orioles won’t float it past Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano or Gary Sánchez.

Eflin seemed like a candidate earlier in the year, before a third trip to the injured list led to lower-back surgery in August.

Teams receive a compensatory draft pick if a player declines the offer and signs with another organization. The risk, of course, is having the player accept it.

The Orioles in theory could allow Eflin to test free agency and try to negotiate a short-term deal, the ol’ pillow contract that gives him an opportunity to reestablish his value. The club, in turn, would have a veteran, track record starter for the back end of their rotation. He wouldn’t be in line to repeat as Opening Day starter.

Now that’s depth.

Eflin told the media in August that he’d undergo a four-to-eight month recovery period. He’ll need it to fall on the shorter end.

"I think it really all depends on how the post-op stuff goes, how everything responds and how my body's moving post-surgery," he said. "I don't expect not to be ready for spring training. From what I've heard from the surgeon, after 12 weeks I'm able to have a normal offseason, so I'm pretty optimistic it's not gonna be a long thing."

Eflin said he’s experienced back pain randomly for the past five or six years and looked forward to the lumbar microdiscectomy, which relieved pressure on a spinal nerve caused by a herniated disc. He said “all signs” pointed to the surgery bringing a permanent resolution.

“It’s just gotten progressively worse,” he said. “A couple months ago an MRI was a little worse than it was previously, and just seems like the disc is in a place where it’s kind of pushing against my nerve and it’s just not going away. Tried an epidural, didn’t really work, so I think the next step is just to get it taken care of, and hopefully be ready for spring training.

“I think this has really only fueled me to play longer because I wasn’t happy about this year and it’s been pretty much the past five or six years I’ve had a tight back most of the year every year, so I’m excited to see what that feels like to kind of pitch without having to think about other things.”

Should the Orioles think about negotiating with Eflin, who pitched well for them after the 2024 trade deadline but posted a 5.93 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in 14 starts this season? He could provide leadership. They'd also need quality innings. 

“I love this clubhouse,” he said. “I’ve told pretty much everybody that we’ve had a conversation about that, I told them I love this place and I’d love to be here. We’re gonna get the operation done and kind of see where that takes us.”

Mike Elias will continue to make these decisions as president of baseball operations/general manager. The Orioles might wait to hire a GM rather than add to the front office over the offseason, but Elias will wield a lot of influence, whatever the arrangement.

“It does provide us the ability to utilize the general manager title in a way that many, many other organizations and a growing number of other organizations are starting to utilize it to beef up the throughput, but also the talent in the front office. And it's something that we have begun to consider and explore,” Elias said at the season-ending press conference.

“Obviously, it's got to be the right person, the right fit, for the Orioles, for the org, for the whole situation, and it may not happen imminently, but that is a pathway that's available to us and it's something that we may be interested in doing. It may be this offseason, it may not be.”

It seems more likely to be “not,” but that could change.