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The Winter Meetings have come and gone, and not much has changed for the Nationals since they traded Jose A. Ferrer to the Mariners last weekend before heading to Orlando.
We did, however, see some changes across baseball’s greater landscape, most notably the Orioles signing first base slugger Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract. That was one of the first major dominoes to fall this offseason, with many more now to follow.
New president of baseball operations Paul Toboni didn’t leave the Winter Meetings with a splashy free agent signing nor another trade completed. He used the week to lay down groundwork for the deals he’ll make between now and the start of spring training.
But with other moves from around the league, we can now speculate on possible avenues he could pursue to fill out the 2026 roster.
After Wednesday’s blockbuster news of Alonso signing with the Orioles, a train of thought led to the possibility of the first-ever trade between the Nats and O’s.
Reports that swirled around the Nationals this week mostly involved MacKenzie Gore and whether or not Toboni would trade his staff ace with two years left of club control. The Orioles, in need of starting pitching this offseason, were one of the teams closely linked to that speculation.
Now that the O’s have Alonso, my MASNsports.com colleague Roch Kubatko says Orioles president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Elias will shift his attention to pitching, either in free agency or trades.
The Orioles now have a logjam at first base.
Ryan Mountcastle, who turns 29 in February, was tendered a contract last month and is expected to earn close to $8 million. But he was limited to 89 games this year with a hamstring injury and has yet to tap back into the power he displayed in 2021, when he hit a career-high 33 home runs and finished sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting.
Meanwhile, Coby Mayo, who just so happened to celebrate his 24th birthday on the day the Orioles agreed to terms with Alonso, no longer seems to have a long-term future in Baltimore. He only hit .217 with a .687 OPS, 11 homers and 28 RBIs over 85 games this season, his first extended stay in the major leagues. But as a former top prospect in the O’s system, he still has immense potential.
So where do the Nationals fit in all of this?
Well, we know Toboni is not afraid to dip into his past experiences and connections during his short time as the head man in Washington. He targeted Harry Ford in the Ferrer deal because he scouted him well when the young catcher was coming into the 2021 MLB Draft and Toboni was the Red Sox’s director of amateur scouting.
The Orioles selected Mayo, a third baseman-turned-first baseman, out of high school in the fourth round a year earlier. The Red Sox also selected a third baseman-turned-first baseman out of high school in the third round of the 2020 MLB Draft. So it’s reasonable to believe Toboni scouted Mayo well that year, too.
Put all of that together and what do we have?
The Nationals have the most coveted pitcher on the trade market this offseason. They also have a need at first base, particularly in the long-term. (As the roster stands now, only Andrés Chaparro has extensive experience at first. The Nats could decide to try Luis García Jr. or Riley Adams there, too.)
The Orioles are searching for starting pitching this offseason. They also now have a logjam at first base and a strong farm system to deal from.
Toboni likely scouted Mayo (blocked by Alonso) as he did Ford (blocked by Cal Raleigh). He also would like to replenish the Nats’ farm system, as evident by him selecting six players in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
The Nationals and Orioles have never completed a trade with each other. But Toboni is ushering in a new era in Washington and has his sights on the future. There are easy dots to connect. Perhaps now is the time for the first exchange up and down the B-W Parkway.
