Yesterday, we looked at the Nationals’ projected position players and tried to decide if they figure to get better, worse or the same production from each spot this year as they got last year. While the overall outlook for a top-tier lineup doesn’t exactly look great, it does appear to be better in most spots, including a few key positions.
Now, what about the pitching staff? It’s probably not fair to run this exercise yet, because there are still several significant holes to fill in the bullpen. But we don’t know when (or if) that will happen for certain, so all we can do is evaluate the state of things in their current form.
What’s the outlook? Is the 2025 Nats pitching staff likely to be better, worse or the same as it was in 2024? …
NO. 1 STARTER: Slightly better, maybe much better
We don’t know at this point who the Opening Day starter will be, but let’s say it’s MacKenzie Gore. He had the lowest ERA (3.91) and the most strikeouts (181) on the staff last season while also tying for the team lead in wins (10). Is that as good as the left-hander is going to get? The feeling here is no. Gore has long been touted as a frontline big league starter, and while we’ve seen stretches of that from him, we’re still waiting for him to put it all together over a full year. Here’s why he may be ready to make that leap: While he was excellent in his 10 wins last season (1.98 ERA), he was considerably better in his 12 losses (5.37 ERA) than he was the previous year (7.71 ERA). We know Gore is outstanding when he’s at his best. The key for him now is to just be OK when he’s not at his best, not letting starts blow up on him. He showed improvement in that area last season, and there’s reason to believe he can continue to get better this season.
NO. 2 STARTER: Same, maybe better
Jake Irvin was one of the most positive developments of the 2024 season, with 10 wins, 187 2/3 innings pitched and a strong 1.199 WHIP. Like Gore, he was really good when he was at his best (1.61 ERA in wins, 2.59 ERA in no-decisions) but really bad when he wasn’t at his best (8.28 ERA in 14 losses). Can he reduce the number of those bad starts, or at least pitch a bit better in those games? If he can, Irvin has a chance to be better overall this season. Even if he doesn’t, he can be a solid workhorse for this team.