The Nationals won 55 games last season, fewest in club history. They were outscored by an astounding 252 runs. They had the majors’ worst rotation, hit the fewest homers in the National League and gave up the most. They ranked at or near the bottom in most defensive metrics. They also traded a once-in-a-generation, 22-year-old star for prospects.

It was, by any measure, an awful season.

Which means there’s nowhere to go but up, right?

The 2023 Nationals have to be better. The pitching has to be better. The defense has to be better. The lineup has to be … uh, we’ll get back to that topic in a moment.

We don’t know how the next six months are going to play out. There are any number of unpredictable factors that could help or hurt the team’s fortunes. Here’s what we do know: The 2023 Nats are younger. They’re more athletic. They feature more potential pieces to the long-term puzzle than the previous team did.

Spring training is over. The Nationals packed their bags after Sunday’s 2-2 tie against the Marlins and took their charter flight home to D.C. as the somewhat-proud owners of a 12-12-3 record in Grapefruit League play. (Hey, after going 4-11 last year en route to 55-107 in the regular season, any hint of success is ready to be proud.)

There’s one more exhibition to play Tuesday afternoon against the Yankees at Nationals Park. Then the Braves arrive for Thursday’s 2023 season opener, and we’re off and running.

We touched on a whole lot of topics over the last six weeks, some more frequently than others. So consider this something of an exercise in course correction. Too often we pay too much attention to something in spring training that doesn’t matter much in the regular season. And conversely, too often we ignore a subject that absolutely proves significant over the ensuing six months.

So as everyone gets settled in to their homes and apartments and looks ahead to Opening Day, let’s run through some topics we perhaps made too big a deal out of this spring, and some others we might have glossed over …

TOO BIG A DEAL: THE ROTATION
The primary topic of spring training, for better or worse, is always going to be starting pitching. Those are the guys who need the most work to get ready for the season. They’re the ones who are going to draw the most attention. And after the Nationals rotation went a horrific 30-86 with a 5.97 ERA last season, this revamped unit was always going to be the center of attention this spring. In the end, these guys will probably be fine. Yes, Cade Cavalli’s Tommy John surgery was a huge blow. But Josiah Gray looked great this spring, MacKenzie Gore flashed his ability to dominate, Patrick Corbin looked serviceable and Trevor Williams looked like a nice addition. This isn’t going to morph into anything close to a club strength, but it really shouldn’t be a disaster this year like it was last year.

JUPITER, Fla. – The 0.55 spring ERA, to be sure, is really nice. So is the 0.918 WHIP. It would be hard for Josiah Gray and the Nationals to look at those numbers as camp wraps up and not be pleased.

The spring stats that really stood out to Gray, though, were the two that showed dramatic improvement from his 2022 season.

“Walks,” he said. “I think walks are the biggest one. If I can keep those down, that puts me in a really good position early on. … And then we all know the home run ball. Just being able to limit that is obviously going to take away the biggest negative play for a pitcher. So those two are big.”

Gray, for those who don’t remember, surrendered a major-league-high 38 home runs last season while issuing a National League-high 66 walks. It proved to be a deadly combination that turned what at times looked like a promising campaign into a frustrating one for the young right-hander.

It’s spring training, of course, so this comes with all the usual caveats. But over the course of five starts and 16 1/3 innings this spring, Gray issued only two walks and did not surrender any homers.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Matt Adams is going to fly home with the Nationals tonight, play in Tuesday’s exhibition finale against the Yankees and attend the team’s annual charity gala that evening. And then, if he doesn’t get a big league offer from another organization, the veteran slugger will report to Triple-A Rochester and hope he gets called up sometime this season.

Adams came to this conclusion Saturday night after consultation with his wife and his agent, hours after he was informed by manager Davey Martinez he wasn’t going to make the Opening Day roster despite a strong showing at the plate throughout spring training.

“It’s tough to hear, especially coming in and doing everything I possibly could to put myself in the position to possibly have my name called to be on the roster,” the 34-year-old said. “But I totally understand. I can walk away with my head held high. I’m very proud of the way I came in and handled myself, and the way I went about my business, the teammate that I was and all the knowledge I gave to the younger guys. That was a blast. It was a lot of fun. I’m going to just continue to put the uniform on and play the game that I love.”

A member of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series roster, Adams hasn’t been a regular in the big leagues since. He played in 16 games for the Braves in 2020, 22 games for the Rockies in 2021 and then spent the entire 2022 season playing independent ball in Kansas City.

After sending letters to all 30 clubs over the winter, Adams was given a chance to come back to the Nationals this spring as a non-roster invitee. With a new perspective on his career – he said he fell back in love with the game last season – he looked good at the plate, batting .333 (13-for-39) with five doubles and a home run.

JUPITER, Fla. – And so we have reached the end of the road, the final game of spring training. The Nationals, for those who care about such things, have actually fared pretty well down here, going 12-11-2 in official Grapefruit League play. A win today over the Marlins would secure a winning spring record, if that’s worth anything.

Josiah Gray gets the ball for his final tune-up before his expected season debut April 1 against the Braves. Like Patrick Corbin on Saturday night, Gray will probably be pulled early, not needing to use up any unnecessary pitches before it counts for real.

Most of the regulars are in the lineup, aside from Corey Dickerson and Luis García. The relievers on the schedule to pitch after Gray (in no particular order) are Carl Edwards Jr., Kyle Finnegan, Mason Thompson, Thaddeus Ward and Hobie Harris.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. MIAMI MARLINS
Where: Roger Dean Stadium
Gametime: 1:05 p.m. EDT
TV: None
Radio: MLB.com (Marlins broadcast)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 85 degrees, wind 14 mph out to left field

NATIONALS
RF Lane Thomas
DH Joey Meneses
3B Jeimer Candelario
1B Dominic Smith
LF Alex Call
C Keibert Ruiz
2B Ildemaro Vargas
SS CJ Abrams
CF Victor Robles

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – All of the decisions, for the most part, have already been made. There’s not much-left anyone can do to make or break his chances of making the Opening Day roster.

So consider tonight’s penultimate Grapefruit League game – a 6-1 loss to the Astros – a true exhibition, one in which the only real goal was to play nine innings, get any necessary work in and avoid injury.

The Nationals accomplished all of that, so who cares about the end result? (Though it does leave them with a tenuous 12-11-2 record heading into Sunday’s finale, needing a win over the Marlins to finish the spring over .500.)

Patrick Corbin, whose next start in five days will kick off the regular season, did what he needed to do in his final tune-up. The left-hander, who had already been stretched out to six innings in his previous outing, was held to four innings and 60 pitches. He allowed four runs (three earned) on six hits, making a couple of mistakes but also victimized by some shaky defense behind him.

“I felt command was pretty good,” he said. “Maybe a couple pitches were up, but I got some swings-and-misses on changeups and sliders. Overall, I felt pretty good. I’ve just got to throw another bullpen coming up and then get ready for the first game.”

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – The Nationals made six more cuts this afternoon, bringing the number of remaining healthy players in camp down to the requisite 26 but leaving open the possibility of acquiring someone from outside the organization to fill out their bench or bullpen before the Opening Day roster is officially set.

Right-hander Paolo Espino and infielder Jeter Downs were optioned to Triple-A Rochester, while relievers Alex Colomé, Andrés Machado and Wily Peralta were reassigned to minor league camp.

First baseman Matt Adams, meanwhile, was informed he won’t be making the club but is still deciding whether he will accept an invitation from manager Davey Martinez to come with the team to D.C. for Tuesday’s exhibition finale against the Yankees and whether he will report to Rochester or become a free agent.

Those moves seemed to set the Opening Day roster, with infielder Michael Chavis winning the final spot on the bench and Anthony Banda, Thaddeus Ward, Mason Thompson and Hobie Harris filling the last four spots in the bullpen. But Martinez insisted the roster is not set in stone yet and said he has not informed any of those players they’ve made the club yet.

“There’s no set roster right now,” Martinez said. “We still have decisions to make. We probably won’t make any decisions until we go back to D.C.”

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – We are down to the final 48 hours of spring training. And we are now five days away from the season opener. Which means tonight’s exhibition lineup against the Astros has a distinct Opening Day feel to it.

All of the regulars are in and will play most of the game. The only tweak is that Joey Meneses is again playing left field (so he can continue to get reps after not playing the outfield while in the World Baseball Classic), with Corey Dickerson serving as designated hitter.

Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, is making his final start of the spring. He’ll hope to continue what he did five days ago against the Mets and put himself in a good frame of mind heading into his Opening Day start five days from now against the Braves.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. HOUSTON ASTROS
Where: The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches
Gametime: 6:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MLB.tv (Astros broadcast)
Radio: MLB.com (Astros broadcast)
Weather: Chance of rain late, 82 degrees, wind 14 mph out to left field

NATIONALS
RF Lane Thomas
1B Dominic Smith
LF Joey Meneses
3B Jeimer Candelario
DH Corey Dickerson
2B Luis García
C Keibert Ruiz
SS CJ Abrams
CF Víctor Robles

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – If the Nationals were choosing the final four pitchers to make their Opening Day bullpen based strictly on spring training stats, the decision would be fairly simple.

Andres Machado (zero runs, zero walks in four innings), Hobie Harris (one run, three hits in nine innings), Paolo Espino (one run in eight innings), Thaddeus Ward (four runs, 12 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings) and Mason Thompson (three runs in seven innings) have performed the best among the relievers competing down to the wire.

Alex Colomé (six runs, 19 baserunners in 9 2/3 innings), Anthony Banda (seven runs in 11 innings) and Wily Peralta (12 earned runs, 24 baserunners in 9 2/3 innings) have not.

Opening Day roster decisions, however, aren’t as simple as that. It’s not just about spring training numbers. It’s about track records. It’s about contract statuses. It’s about who has minor league options.

And ultimately, it’s about keeping as many pitchers in your organization as you can, knowing you’re going to need them all at some point during the long season.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Chad Kuhl handed the ball to Davey Martinez with one out in the sixth tonight at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. The right-hander had just surrendered a leadoff homer and then recorded a flyball out to end his outing at 92 pitches, a solid-if-unspectacular outing against a good Cardinals lineup in the final week of spring training.

Kuhl walked back to the Nationals dugout and began thinking about his next start. The question now: Where and when will that start be?

“We’ve got to figure out what we’re going to do here, but he’s done a great job,” Martinez said. “We’re getting close to the season, and we’ve got to make some decisions. But so far, I like what I’ve seen out of him.”

Thrust into the Nats’ rotation plans after Cade Cavalli tore his elbow ligament last week and required Tommy John surgery, Kuhl seems to have done enough to have locked up the No. 5 starter’s job as the season begins.

The Nationals, though, aren’t ready to make any pronouncements about that. There’s still another 11 or 12 days to go until they’ll need a fifth starter, so that leaves them with some flexibility as they wind up camp.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – What had become clear in recent weeks became official today: Patrick Corbin will start Opening Day for the Nationals.

It’s not exactly an inspired choice, considering the left-hander’s immense struggles the last three years. But under the circumstances, the team felt it was the right choice, taking pressure off younger starters Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore in favor of a veteran who won’t be fazed by the moment.

“I’ve said this before: I’ve never gotten down on Patrick,” manager Davey Martinez said. “We know what he can do at any given time. He worked really hard over the winter, came to spring training in great shape, had a plan and he’s been pitching well. So he’s going to get the ball Opening Day.”

Corbin will take the mound shortly after 1 p.m. Thursday to face the Braves, who are starting fellow lefty Max Fried. He’ll do so on the heels of the worst season of his career, and statistically the worst season by any major league starter in 2022.

Owner of a 6-19 record, 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP last year, Corbin doesn’t exactly look the part of an Opening Day starter. But he’s had the assignment twice before, in 2018 for the Diamondbacks and 2022 for the Nats. He has seniority on the staff now with Max Scherzer gone and Stephen Strasburg unable to return from thoracic outlet surgery. And he has the support of his manager, which matters to the 33-year-old.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – It’s going to be a beautiful evening for baseball. If you can’t be down here with us, might as well live vicariously through your TV and watch Bob Carpenter and Kevin Frandsen on MASN.

The Nationals host the Cardinals in Game 25 of 27 on their Grapefruit League slate. They’ve actually done well, record-wise, so far, entering tonight 12-10-2 for the spring (if that matters at all). Most importantly, they’ve been getting excellent starting pitching this week. The quartet of Patrick Corbin (officially named Opening Day starter this afternoon), Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Trevor Williams combined to post an 0.75 ERA with three walks and 22 strikeouts over 24 innings the last four days.

Chad Kuhl will look to continue those good vibes going tonight against St. Louis. Kuhl hasn’t officially been named the No. 5 starter yet, but it’s hard to imagine anyone else taking the spot from him at this point, especially if he gets through tonight’s outing in one piece. There is, as noted yesterday, a possibility Kuhl doesn’t actually make the Opening Day roster and stays down here to make one final tune-up start in a minor league game before heading north in time to start either April 4 or 5 against the Rays.

Almost all of the regulars are in Davey Martinez’s lineup again tonight, aside from CJ Abrams and Victor Robles. Luis García gets another opportunity to lead off. Joey Meneses gets a start at first base after playing left field the last two nights.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Where: The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches
Gametime: 6:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: MLB.com (Cardinals broadcast)
Weather: Clear, 80 degrees, wind 13 mph right field to left field

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Victor Robles has done this before, putting up big numbers in spring training only to watch them come crashing down to earth once the season begins.

So nobody, not the Nationals and not the 25-year-old center fielder himself, is going to get too worked up about his performance over the last month.

“In terms of the results themselves and the numbers, I really don’t care much about that,” he said, via interpreter Octavio Martinez. “Maybe partly because I’m on the team. I think it’s just a matter of making sure I prepare myself right and take the right approach, and then get ready for the season.”

Still, it’s hard to ignore the numbers altogether. After another two-hit showing Thursday night, Robles is batting .342 (13-for-38) with four doubles, a triple and a homer, six RBIs and a .969 OPS in Grapefruit League play.

If he maintains these numbers, this will be the fourth time in five years Robles has finished spring training with an OPS over .900. Only once in the previous four regular seasons has he finished with OPS better than .608. So skepticism remains high.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Trevor Williams didn’t get the opportunity to face a lineup three times in one night very often last season. That was partly due to his role as the Mets’ swingman, in which he bounced between the rotation and bullpen based on need. But it was also a reflection of manager Buck Showalter’s reluctance to let him go too deep into a start and risk damage.

In only three of his nine starts did Williams face a hitter three times, for a grand total of nine plate appearances. (He did have success, allowing only two of them to reach base.)

So the opportunity tonight to face five Astros hitters three times, albeit in an exhibition game that ended in a 5-4 loss, was a big deal for the right-hander, who knows he’s going to be a full-time starter with the Nationals.

“I think no matter who it is, facing the same guy two or three times is going to be important once the season starts,” he said. “Today we went through a normal pregame routine with pitchers meetings and catchers meetings. It was good to get that under our belt.”

As it turned out, Williams had far more success the first two times he went through the Houston order than the third. He cruised through five innings, allowing one hit and one walk on 73 pitches. Then came in the sixth, in which he allowed a solo homer to Jeremy Pena, plus singles to Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu, all of them stepping to the plate for the third time.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Three players vying for the final spot on the Nationals’ Opening Day bench remain in big league camp, but one of them is not currently playing.

Jeter Downs, who has twice been hit by a pitch on the hand in the last week, didn’t play Wednesday afternoon against the Yankees and isn’t on the lineup card for tonight’s game against the Astros.

Manager Davey Martinez said X-rays on Downs’ hand were negative, but he does have a contusion and needs at least a few days to heal. That complicates the infielder’s chances of heading north with the club, given how few opportunities remain to make a case.

“I want to see him get some at-bats,” Martinez said. “We’ve been working on some stuff with him hitting, and I want to see him back out there to see if he can do these things we’re asking him to do. But I don’t want to him push himself to try to get back out there. I want to make sure that (he’s healthy).”

Downs, the former top prospect of the Dodgers and Red Sox whom the Nationals claimed off waivers this winter, is batting just .176 (6-for-34) with three RBIs, three walks and 12 strikeouts this spring. His ability to play multiple infield positions as well as the outfield, though, makes him intriguing as a 26th man on the roster.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – We’ve got a “Nexus of the Universe” moment coming up tonight when the Nationals and Astros take the field at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. On the mound for Houston will be Luis Garcia. At the plate for the Nats will be Luis García. Prepare for your minds to be blown.

It is kind of interesting that García leading off. We’ll hear from Davey Martinez if that’s actually something he wants to get a look at, or if it’s just happening tonight for whatever reason. You’ll notice a flip-flop of yesterday’s 2-3 hitters, with Joey Meneses batting second and Dominic Smith batting third. And a flip-flop of yesterday’s 4-5 hitters, with Jeimer Candelario now batting cleanup and Corey Dickerson batting fifth.

On the mound is Trevor Williams for his second-to-last tune-up. Williams should be aiming for close to 100 pitches tonight, and he’ll still get a chance to pitch in Tuesday’s exhibition finale at Nationals Park against the Yankees, along with MacKenzie Gore.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. HOUSTON ASTROS
Where: The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches
Gametime: 6:05 p.m. EDT
TV: MLB.tv (Astros broadcast)
Radio: MLB.com (Astros broadcast)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 78 degrees, wind 12 mph in from right field

NATIONALS
2B Luis García
LF Joey Meneses
1B Dominic Smith
3B Jeimer Candelario
DH Corey Dickerson
RF Alex Call
SS CJ Abrams
C Riley Adams
CF Víctor Robles

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Opening Day is one week away. At this point, we should have a pretty clear idea who’s making the roster, who’s filling what slot in the starting rotation and how the back end of the bullpen is set up.

We should also have a pretty clear idea what the Opening Day lineup is going to look like. Except, when it comes to the Nationals, we don’t.

Davey Martinez hasn’t even offered up that many clues so far this spring. That’s mostly because he had been without a couple of lineup lynchpins in Joey Meneses and Jemier Candelario, who both spent considerable time away from the team while competing in the World Baseball Classic. But it’s also because the Nats manager doesn’t appear to have entirely decided how he wants to arrange his hitters one through nine yet.

“We have so many different options,” Martinez said Wednesday.

There are perhaps two ways to interpret that. The cynic would suggest the manager wouldn’t have so many different options if he merely had a better lineup filled with established major league hitters. The optimist would offer that the Nationals’ plethora of interchangeable parts is a good sign of versatility and a way to show opposing clubs different looks on a daily basis.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – MacKenzie Gore faced 21 batters today, against a Yankees lineup that included a number of regulars including Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton. He threw a first-pitch strike to 17 of them, including 12 of the first 13 who stepped to the plate at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches.

“That’s beautiful,” the Nationals left-hander said when informed of the stat.

“Love it,” manager Davey Martinez responded.

It’s a simple maxim of pitching, and it applies to everyone: Throw strike one. But it felt especially important today for Gore, who had slogged his way through a few uninspired starts this spring and entered this one determined to right the ship.

How important was it to Gore’s chances of success this afternoon? It produced the following pitching line: six innings, two hits, zero runs, one walk, eight strikeouts on 81 pitches. The outcome of the game – a 5-2 exhibition win over the Yankees in front of the lone sellout crowd of the spring here – may not matter. But the performance most certainly did to the Nationals starter.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Joey Meneses left Nationals camp two weeks ago a mostly anonymous 30-year-old ballplayer who didn’t register much on a national scale. He returned to Nationals camp today an international sensation whose name was chanted by thousands of Mexico fans on the streets of downtown Phoenix after he homered twice in a World Baseball Classic win over the United States.

“I never imagined that,” Meneses said. “That was awesome. It’s one of the best feelings I’ve ever felt. I never thought about that. Just a special moment for me.”

Meneses, along with dynamic and colorful left fielder Randy Arozarena, became the face of Team Mexico during its improbable run to the WBC semifinals in Miami. He finished the tournament with two homers, six RBIs, 10 hits in 27 at-bats and a lifetime of memories.

A veteran of 10 minor league seasons in the Braves, Phillies and Red Sox organizations before he finally made his major league debut last August for the Nationals, Meneses is now well known to baseball fans around the world. He batted third for Mexico, starting mostly at first base, and put on a massive power display in the upset win over Team USA.

One of the indelible images of the tournament was Meneses tossing his bat high into the Arizona night after connecting for his second homer, his teammates leaping out of the dugout with joy.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – I think it’s finally safe to say we’ve reached the final countdown of spring training. Starting pitchers are going five or six innings. Position players are getting four or five plate appearances. Relievers are throwing back-to-back days. And Joey Meneses is back in Nationals camp.

Meneses, who became an international sensation over the last two weeks playing for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic, has rejoined the Nationals and is right back in there this afternoon, batting third and starting in left field. Davey Martinez has said he wants Meneses to get some time in the outfield, because there’s a chance he’ll play out there when Corey Dickerson has a day off (most likely against lefties). So the big slugger is out there today against the Yankees.

Martinez’s lineup might well be what we see on Opening Day. At the very least, these are probably the nine names who will be out there next Thursday. The only question is what the batting order will be.

MacKenzie Gore, meanwhile, faces an important start today. He has not looked good the last few weeks, and he knows it. Now the young lefty has to see if he can get himself straightened out against a Yankees lineup that actually includes several big names, including Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. NEW YORK YANKEES
Where: The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches
Gametime: 1:05 p.m. EDT
TV: None
Radio: None
Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees, wind 9 mph in from right field