The Nationals’ offensive identity this season was established early in April. Knowing they weren’t likely to hit for much power, they decided their best chance at scoring runs was to get on base and then use their speed abilities to get around the bases as quickly as possible.

Two months later, the Nats lead the majors with 95 stolen bases, with four individuals already in double digits and three others with eight steals.

But they’re also getting thrown out a decent amount, especially in recent games. The Nationals have been caught stealing 24 times in total, third-most in the majors. And they’ve been caught 10 times in their last 14 games, a particularly rough stretch that has at times cost them.

That drop in success rate, from 85 percent through their first 47 games to 64 percent during these last 14 games, coincides with the team’s scoring output dropping from 4.1 runs to 3.8 runs per game. Manager Davey Martinez sees a correlation.

“I think we’re trying to push the envelope a little too much because we’re not scoring any runs, and that happens because as a team we start pressing and trying to make things happen,” he said. “I think we’ll get back to (stealing successfully) as soon as our guys start swinging the bats better. The success rate will definitely go up.”

This homestand started off in miserable fashion for the Nationals, who were swept by the Mets and didn’t look particularly good in the process. They now have to try to salvage things with a four-game series against a team that on paper is far more intimidating in the Braves.

The good news: The Nats just took three of four in Atlanta last week, so they should feel confident about themselves entering this matchup. They won those three games thanks to some stellar pitching, including another quality start from the guy who takes the mound tonight: Mitchell Parker.

Parker allowed three runs while reaching the seventh inning in that game at Truist Park. The rookie left-hander tonight makes his 10th career start, and he has yet to surrender more than three runs in any of them. This will, however, be the first time he faces an opponent a second time, so it will be very interesting to see if he or the Braves make any adjustments.

On the mound for Atlanta is old friend Reynaldo López. The 30-year-old right-hander made his major league debut for the Nationals way back in 2016, then was part of the blockbuster trade with the White Sox for Adam Eaton. He’s had an up-and-down, nomadic career since and is now pitching for his fourth organization in the last two years, but he’s been outstanding so far since joining the Braves: a 1.73 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 10 starts.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. ATLANTA BRAVES
Where: Nationals Park
Gametime: 6:45 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, 88.7 FM (Spanish), MLB.com
Weather: Storms ending, 79 degrees, wind 8 mph out to center field

April was an especially encouraging month for the Nationals, who played .500 ball for the entire month and saw one of their most important young players take his game to another level.

In that opening month to the season, CJ Abrams put forth a titanic offensive slash line: .295/.373/.619. He got on base. He stole bases when presented with the opportunity. He scored runs. He drove in runs. He drove in himself. It was to be just the beginning of a breakthrough season for the 23-year-old shortstop.

Then came May, and with it a precipitous drop in production. Abrams slashed a far less impressive .205/.216/.304 in the season’s second month. He didn’t get on base. He didn’t steal bases. He didn’t score as many runs. He didn’t drive in as many runs.

And with an 0-for-3 showing Wednesday in the Nationals’ 9-1 loss to the Mets, Abrams’ prolonged slump continued. He’s now batting a mediocre .246 with a .293 on-base percentage and .446 slugging percentage.

Is it any wonder the Nats are 13-19 since May 1, making that April of success feel like a distant memory?

The Nationals came home Sunday evening rightfully feeling good about themselves after a winning road trip against a pair of contenders. Next up: a three-game series against a Mets team in disarray in advance of its weekend trip to London to face the Phillies.

What ensued: A three-game sweep at the hands of that supposedly unraveling Mets club that featured two ugly pitching performances, an injury to one of the team’s best starters to date and precious little production from a lineup that has been the roster’s weak link for two months now.

Consider today’s 9-1 shellacking before the fans who waited out a rain delay a new low point to the season. Patrick Corbin was rocked once again. The Nationals lineup looked helpless against Luis Severino. And by day’s end, it was Davey Martinez’s bunch that looked ready to leave town, not the guys heading to England.

"Rough series," Martinez said. "But we can't feel sorry for ourselves. We've got another tough team coming in (the Braves this weekend). We've got to be ready to play tomorrow."

Outscored 23-11 during the sweep, the Nats held a lead after only one of the 27 innings they played. They saw MacKenzie Gore get roughed up for six runs in 4 1/3 innings Monday. They made David Peterson throw only 81 pitches in 6 2/3 innings Tuesday. And today they suffered the worst of both worlds, with Corbin shelled for six runs in 5 1/3 innings while the lineup made Severino throw only 72 pitches through seven scoreless innings before finally plating a run in the eighth.

Josiah Gray is ready to pitch in a competitive game again.

Gray, who has spent nearly two months on the 15-day injured list with a flexor strain in his forearm, has been cleared to begin a minor league rehab assignment. The exact date and location hasn’t been finalized yet, but manager Davey Martinez suggested it’s most likely to come Sunday at Single-A Fredericksburg.

“I would like to send him to the closest affiliate for now, because I want him to come back here after he pitches,” Martinez said. “So if Fredericksburg is home, that’s probably where he’ll go.”

The Fred Nats indeed are home Sunday afternoon against Kannapolis, so that appears to be the answer.

Gray landed on the IL on April 9 after two rough starts to his season. He slowly built his arm back up and in recent weeks pitched in three simulated games against teammates. The last of those came Tuesday when the right-hander threw 65 pitches over three innings.

The Nationals are scheduled to play the Mets at 4:05 p.m. today. The Mets are scheduled to fly to London after the game in advance of their weekend series against the Phillies. And it’s scheduled to begin raining here later this afternoon. So this creates a bit of a predicament.

The good news: The Mets are back here the first week of July. So there’s really little reason for the Nats and Major League Baseball to wait around for a long time in hopes of playing today. A postponement would not be surprising.

But until we hear otherwise, we’ll assume they’re going to play. And if they do, the Nationals will need a win to avoid what would be an awfully disappointing sweep at the hands of the team that trails them in the standings and was kind of in disarray when it arrived in town at the start of the week.

The Nats need to hit, and they need to hit early and not wait until the New York bullpen takes over. They face Luis Severino this afternoon, and the veteran right-hander has been solid overall (3.52 ERA, 1.172 WHIP) but has allowed five runs in two of his last three starts (against the Marlins and Diamondbacks). In between, he dominated the Giants. So who knows what you’re going to get.

Patrick Corbin has this start for the Nationals, coming off back-to-back quality starts against the Mariners and Guardians. The lefty was quite bad last season in three starts against the Mets, allowing 14 runs and 21 hits in only 15 2/3 innings.

There’s nothing more tempting in baseball than to try to predict a team’s pitching plan for both the short-term and long-term. And there are few exercises that almost always turn up results that don’t come to fruition.

Way back in March, as the Nationals prepped for the season in West Palm Beach, it seemed a given that Trevor Williams’ hold on the fifth spot in the Opening Day rotation was tenuous at best. Shoot, there even seemed to be a reasonable chance he would lose the job to spring training invitee Zach Davies. Then Davies had a blowup start that led to his release and Williams retained his starting job entering the season.

Even so, the leash on Williams figured to be short, especially on the heels of a miserable 2023 season. A couple of bad weeks to begin April and he might be bumped to the bullpen, opening the door for Jackson Rutledge (presumably the first-man up at Triple-A) to get his shot.

Then Williams got off to a great start to the season, and instead the opening in the Nats rotation came via injury to Josiah Gray. The choice to replace Gray wasn’t Rutledge (who was off-schedule at the time) but Mitchell Parker, who was thrown to the wolves at Dodger Stadium and conceivably could be sent back to Rochester one or two rough starts into his career.

Then Parker exceeded everyone’s expectations and now has solidified his place in the big league rotation for the foreseeable future. And alongside the improving MacKenzie Gore and Jake Irvin, plus the still-effective Williams, the Nationals had four quality starters giving their team a chance to win every time they took the mound.

DJ Herz’s major league debut wasn’t the fairytale Mitchell Parker experienced two months ago at Dodger Stadium. Neither was it the nightmare suffered by countless other Nationals rookies over the last decade.

Herz wasn’t great in his first career start. Neither was he bad. The rookie left-hander pitched with some confidence, escaped a couple of early jams, then began to succumb as his evening progressed.

In the end, Herz allowed two runs while he was in the game, plus another two that were charged to him after he departed in the top of the fifth. And because his teammates did very little at the plate themselves, he wound up charged with the loss as the Nationals fell 6-3 to the Mets.

"He was a little nervous," manager Davey Martinez said. "He was sweating like crazy out there. But you know what, in big moments he kind of settled down and threw strikes and looked really good."

The Nats hoped for something more akin to Parker’s sparkling April debut in Los Angeles, when the unheralded rookie left-hander struck out Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani, went five strong innings and became the franchise’s first starting pitcher to win his major league debut since Stephen Strasburg.

Trevor Williams will be shut down from throwing for two weeks after an MRI revealed a flexor muscle strain in the right-hander’s forearm. How much time the Nationals veteran starter will need to return after that remains an open question.

“There’s positive news from it: Everything structurally looks good. It’s just going to take some time,” Williams said this afternoon. “That’s the positive news. I wish it was just one start that I was skipping to be able to let my body recover. But unfortunately, it’s not that way.”

The Nats placed Williams on the 15-day injured list today, calling up left-hander DJ Herz from Triple-A Rochester to make his major league debut tonight against the Mets. The IL move is backdated to June 1, so Williams technically will be available to return as soon as June 16. But there doesn’t appear to be any reason to believe he’ll actually be ready that soon.

Williams said he felt fine during his last start Thursday in Atlanta, when he held the Braves to one run over 5 2/3 innings, throwing 95 pitches (his second-highest total of the season). But when he went to play catch the next day in Cleveland, he said his arm didn’t respond the way it usually does. And when the discomfort lingered through the weekend, the Nationals had him get an MRI to determine if there was an injury.

That MRI showed no issues with Williams’ elbow ligament or tendons, so the injury is purely muscular. Manager Davey Martinez called that diagnosis “best-case scenario.”

Who’s ready to watch a major league debut tonight? An unexpected one, at that.

Trevor Williams was supposed to start the second game of this series against the Mets, but he was placed on the 15-day injured list with a flexor muscle strain in his right arm, so DJ Herz got the call from Triple-A Rochester and will make his first major league start tonight instead.

Who is DJ Herz? He’s a 23-year-old left-hander, acquired last summer from the Cubs for Jeimer Candelario. He’s had big strikeout numbers in the minors, but he’s also had big walk numbers. He’s been a lot better in recent outings, though, and in his last start Thursday he struck out 10 with only one walk over 5 2/3 innings. Herz is going to be amped up big-time. His ability to control his emotions will go a long way toward determining if he has success or not.

Some run support would also help, of course. The Nationals scored seven runs Monday night, and they’d love to do the same tonight against New York left-hander David Peterson, who makes only his second start of the season after recovering from hip surgery.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. NEW YORK METS
Where: Nationals Park
Gametime: 6:45 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, 88.7 FM (Spanish), MLB.com
Weather: Partly cloudy, 83 degrees, wind 9 mph right field to left field

The Nationals rotation, a surprising strength for the club so far this season, is getting a surprising shakeup today.

Trevor Williams has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a flexor muscle strain, opening the door for left-hander DJ Herz to make his major league debut tonight.

Williams was scheduled to face the Mets in the second game of a three-game series, hoping to continue his strong run to begin the season. The 32-year-old right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.076 WHIP through 11 starts, having surrendered only two homers one year after he led the league with 34 homers allowed.

Williams last pitched Thursday in Atlanta and showed no outward signs of physical ailment. He held the Braves to one run over 5 2/3 innings, throwing 95 pitches (his second-highest total of the season).

The flexor muscle strain is the same injury suffered by Josiah Gray in April. Gray is scheduled to face live hitters today for the third time since going on the IL, and if all goes well is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment after that.

Monday night’s 8-7 loss to the Mets was one of the Nationals’ more eventful games of the season, featuring an odd combination of encouraging, discouraging and frustrating moments along the way.

Let’s look back at some of the developments worthy of a second look …

* Drew Millas’ rough night
Making his first start behind the plate since his promotion Sunday from Triple-A Rochester, the rookie catcher was front and center for much of the game. And he did not enjoy a particularly good game.

At the plate, Millas went 0-for-4 with a walk, but he wound up as the guy in the batter’s box with the game on the line in the bottom of the ninth, the bases loaded and his team trailing by one run. He proceeded to strike out on three pitches, including a 97-mph fastball down the pipe from left-hander Jake Diekman that he watched sail by for a killer strikeout.

“I think my swing got a little big,” the switch-hitter said of his approach to the first two pitches of the at-bat. “I haven’t batted righty in a while, but that’s no excuse. I feel very confident right-handed to get the job done in that scenario. There’s zero excuse there.”

Though he hasn’t been lights-out every time he has pitched this season, MacKenzie Gore had shown significant progress from last season in one key area: The ability to avoid letting a shaky start go completely awry.

That streak ended tonight with easily the left-hander’s worst outing of the year. Unable to consistently locate any of his pitches, the young Nationals starter couldn’t take advantage of some rare healthy run support from his teammates and ultimately was the pitcher of record in an 8-7 loss to the Mets that saw the home team come up just short with a last-ditch attempted rally in the ninth.

"A lot of fight with our team and in our clubhouse. We always feel like we're in it," said Jesse Winker, who had three hits and drove in three runs. "We almost got the job done."

This game didn’t resemble any of Gore’s previous 11 starts, nor did it resemble many of the Nats’ previous 58 games. They had been 19-7 this season when scoring at least four runs, 19-5 when scoring at least five runs.

That wasn’t enough offense tonight, not with Gore laboring throughout his outing.

CJ Abrams and Jacob Young are once again out of the Nationals lineup, leaving the team shorthanded once again with two regulars dealing with injuries.

Abrams, who jammed his left shoulder making a diving play at shortstop Friday night, is sitting for the third straight day. Young, who took a pitch off his right hand Saturday afternoon, is sitting for the second straight day.

Davey Martinez said Abrams has reported improvement in his shoulder each day, but it does continue to bother him when he swings.

“CJ said he felt better today than he did yesterday, so it is getting better,” the manager said. “I figured just give him another day, and hopefully if we need him (off the bench), he’s available.”

Young tried to hit in the cage today and reported his hand remains sore, so the Nationals decided not to push it and gave him his second straight day off.

The Nationals are home again, something that hasn’t happened very much this season. They’ve played only 23 games in their own ballpark to date, the lowest total in the majors. (They’ve played 35 games on the road, for comparison.) So this seven-game homestand against the Mets and Braves is a welcome development for everyone, even if they have played relatively well away from D.C.

First up are the Mets, who are in a bit of a tailspin and face their own travel dilemma later this week. Following Wednesday’s 4:05 p.m. getaway game, they’re taking off for London and a two-game series against the Phillies. It will be interesting to see where their focus is these next three days, with that trip looming.

The Nationals send MacKenzie Gore to the mound, and he was outstanding against the Braves last week, striking out 10 with zero walks across 5 1/3 innings. The left-hander did well in three starts against New York last year, allowing only four runs in 15 innings.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. NEW YORK METS
Where: Nationals Park
Gametime: 6:45 p.m. EDT
TV: MASN, MLB.tv
Radio: 106.7 FM, 88.7 FM (Spanish), MLB.com
Weather: Partly cloudy, 82 degrees, wind 5 mph out to left field

NATIONALS
CF Lane Thomas
RF Eddie Rosario
2B Luis García Jr.
DH Keibert Ruiz
3B Nick Senzel
LF Jesse Winker
SS Ildemaro Vargas
1B Joey Gallo
C Drew Millas

CLEVELAND – Drew Millas was sitting in the dugout in Rochester during Saturday night’s game against St. Paul, not in the Red Wings lineup and not having any reason to think his manager was about to start yelling at him.

And then he heard Matt LeCroy bellow out: “Millas, come down here!”

Not sure what this could possibly be about, the young catcher approached his Triple-A manager and was surprised by what he heard next: “You want to go to the big leagues?”

“Yeah,” Millas responded.

“Alright,” LeCroy shot back. “You’re going.”

CLEVELAND – The schedule has not been kind to the Nationals through the season’s first two months, from far more games on the road (35) than at home (23) to a current stretch of 17 consecutive games without a scheduled day off to a number of series against some of the top contenders in both leagues.

How have the Nats handled it all? Maybe they haven’t thrived, but they’ve more than held their own under the circumstances.

With a 5-2 victory over the Guardians today, the Nationals secured a winning road trip at 4-3. They started the week taking three of four in Atlanta. They preceded that with a series win over the American Leauge West-leading Mariners, leaving them 6-4 so far during this particularly grueling stretch heading into a seven-game homestand against the Mets and Braves.

They may have lost this weekend series to Cleveland, currently in first place in the AL Central. But they admittedly gave away Saturday’s game with several defensive and baserunning gaffes. And then they bounced back and won today’s finale despite a depleted lineup missing both CJ Abrams and Jacob Young, thanks to one big early outburst and another strong pitching performance led by Jake Irvin.

"I think to win the majority of games on a road trip, against two teams that have played really well so far this year, I think it's a win in everyone's mind," outfielder Lane Thomas said. "I think we left some stuff on the table the first two games here, but they played well. I think we definitely could've made the first game closer and maybe been in contention yesterday. But it's a tough league, and we play a lot of games for a reason. Going forward, I think we have a chance to beat a lot more good teams."

CLEVELAND – The Nationals swapped out backup catchers this morning, optioning Riley Adams to Triple-A and recalling Drew Millas from Rochester, hoping the latter can provide a more potent bat in the big leagues while the former tries to rediscover his swing (while also getting playing time at another position) in the minors.

Adams got off to a hot start to the season and filled in admirably when starting catcher Keibert Ruiz dealt with a bad case of the flu, batting .293 with six extra-base hits and an .863 OPS through his first 12 games.

But he’s been in a prolonged slump since then, batting just .132 with one double and 16 strikeouts over his last 13 games. He hit a low point Saturday afternoon, going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and letting a bounced pitch from Mitchell Parker get past him and roll all the way to the first base dugout as the Guardians’ José Ramírez scored all the way from second for what proved to be the decisive run in a 3-2 loss.

The Nationals hope more consistent playing time at Triple-A will give Adams a better chance of rediscovering his swing.

“It was a timing thing. He’s just got to get himself ready earlier,” manager Davey Martinez said. “It’s hard to do when you’re not playing every day. So getting him at-bats every day, and getting him locked in again, definitely will help him.”

CLEVELAND – The Nationals need a win in today’s series finale to avoid getting swept by a Guardians team that has won 14 of its last 17 and is absolutely rolling right now.

Both games this weekend have been competitive, with Friday night’s opener turning ugly late when the Nats bullpen gave up five runs and Saturday’s affair a tight one-run loss that hinged on two bad defensive plays. So Davey Martinez would love a cleaner game from his guys this afternoon, though the field will be wet after it rained this morning.

Jake Irvin gets the start, looking to continue what he’s been doing. The right-hander struck out a career-high 10 batters Tuesday in Atlanta, and he enters this game with a 3.43 ERA and sparkling 1.032 WHIP. Veteran Carlos Carrasco, fresh off a brief stint on the injured list, starts for Cleveland. Carrasco had two rough outings in late April but otherwise has allowed three or fewer earned runs in his seven other starts this year.

The Nationals made a roster move this morning, recalling Drew Millas from Triple-A and optioning Riley Adams to Rochester in a swap of backup catchers. Adams had been struggling at the plate for a few weeks, and his struggles behind the plate Saturday may have also exacerbated the move. Millas, who was up here briefly earlier this season when Keibert Ruiz was sick, was batting .308 with six doubles, five homers and 22 RBIs in 30 games with Rochester.

UPDATE: For the second straight day, CJ Abrams has been scratched, his left shoulder still bothering him when he tries to swing. Lane Thomas moves into the leadoff spot, with Ildemaro Vargas again taking over at shortstop and batting ninth.

CLEVELAND – Over the course of this afternoon’s game at Progressive Field, the Nationals allowed two runs to score on a popup, allowed another to score all the way from second base on a wild pitch, had one of their own runners tagged out after rounding third base too far, had another picked off first base even when he wasn’t being held on, saw their manager get ejected, saw their shortstop get scratched shortly before first pitch due to injury and saw their center fielder depart later due to injury.

It was, by any measure, an ugly performance from the visitors, the kind of performance they couldn’t afford against one of the majors’ hottest teams.

And yet, somehow the Nats still found themselves with a chance to beat the Guardians, if only they could come through with one modest rally before game’s end. Alas, they could not. And so this went down as a 3-2 loss, and certainly one of the weirder and more frustrating losses of the season.

"You feel like we lost that game more than they won it," catcher Riley Adams said.

Already playing without shortstop CJ Abrams, who was scratched less than an hour before first pitch due to a jammed left shoulder suffered Friday night, the Nationals also lost center fielder Jacob Young to a swollen right hand he first noticed after making a long throw to third base in the seventh inning.